Montana State Bobcats at Idaho State Bengals
Final/3OT · ESPN+
28–26
At lock: projected MTST 34.56–24.33 IDST
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 11:38 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 443880861
- Winner: Idaho St (63%)
- Score error (both teams)7
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: MTST vs IDST
The model
How this number was built
MTST 34.56–24.33 IDST · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +0.2 vs -0.8 · model IDST 28.8–24.0 MTST
- Home field+3.0 pts to IDST
- RecordIDST 6-4 · MTST 9-1
- Market priorBlended 80% toward MTST -15.5 / total 60.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | OT | OT2 | OT3 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTST | 0 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 28 |
| IDST | 3 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 26 |
How the points were scored
- FGQ1 1:490–3
Mason Lindberg 42 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ2 7:120–10
Jordan Cooke 2 Yd Run (Mason Lindberg Kick)
- TDQ2 0:367–10
Adam Jones 2 Yd Run (Myles Sansted Kick)
- FGQ3 9:5310–10
Myles Sansted 30 Yd Field Goal
- FGQ3 4:3013–10
Myles Sansted 27 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ3 0:2813–17
Carson Sudbury 4 Yd Run (Mason Lindberg Kick)
- FGQ4 7:3113–20
Mason Lindberg 34 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ4 2:2420–20
Rocky Lencioni 20 Yd pass from Justin Lamson (Myles Sansted Kick)
- FGOT 0:0020–23
Mason Lindberg 41 Yd Field Goal
- FGOT 0:0023–23
Myles Sansted 28 Yd Field Goal
- FGOT2 0:0026–23
Myles Sansted 43 Yd Field Goal
- FGOT2 0:0026–26
Mason Lindberg 29 Yd Field Goal
- SCOREOT3 0:0028–26
Dane Steel Pass to Rylan Schlepp for Two-Point Conversion
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
Passing
| MTST | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | adjQBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Justin Lamson #8 | 22/37 | 209 | 5.6 | 1 | 0 | — |
| Team | 22/37 | 209 | 5.6 | 1 | 0 | — |
Rushing
| MTST | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Adam Jones #23 | 12 | 49 | 4.1 | 1 | 39 |
Justin Lamson #8 | 13 | 46 | 3.5 | 0 | 19 |
 Carter Dahlke #13 | 3 | 20 | 6.7 | 0 | 17 |
 Jared White #3 | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 | 7 |
| Team | 31 | 123 | 4.0 | 1 | 39 |
Receiving
| MTST | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Dane Steel #84 | 7 | 75 | 10.7 | 0 | 22 |
 Rocky Lencioni #89 | 6 | 66 | 11.0 | 1 | 20 |
Carter Dahlke #13 | 6 | 47 | 7.8 | 0 | 12 |
Jared White #3 | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 | 10 |
 Parker Mady #6 | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 | 7 |
Adam Jones #23 | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | 4 |
| Team | 22 | 209 | 9.5 | 1 | 22 |
Fumbles
| MTST | FUM | LOST | REC |
|---|---|---|---|
Team | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Rocky Lencioni #89 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Seth Brock #91 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Team | 2 | 0 | 1 |
Defense
| MTST | TOT | SOLO | SACKS | TFL | PD | QB HUR | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Cole Taylor #34 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Bryce Grebe #10 | 9 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 JJ Dolan #5 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
B Brian Harris #18 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Takhari Carr #0 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Seth Brock #91 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Hunter Sharbono #90 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Talon Marsh #99 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Bryant Meredith #6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Xavier Ahrens #43 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Blaine Downing #48 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Zac Crews #36 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Caden Dowler #41 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Hudson Wiens #98 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Gianni Edwards #15 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Neil Daily #19 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Brock Steel #27 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Brendon Ross #16 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Brody Johnson #40 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 John Hurst-Daniels #96 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Team | 69 | 39 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 0 |
Interceptions
| MTST | INT | YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|
Seth Brock #91 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | 18 | 0 |
Kick returns
| MTST | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rocky Lencioni #89 | 3 | 92 | 30.7 | 38 | 0 |
| Team | 3 | 92 | 30.7 | 38 | 0 |
Punt returns
| MTST | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Dane Steel #84 | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 8 | 0 |
| Team | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 8 | 0 |
Kicking
| MTST | FG | PCT | LONG | XP | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Myles Sansted #39 | 4/4 | 100.0 | 43 | 2/2 | 14 |
 Colby Frokjer #30 | 0/1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0/0 | 0 |
| Team | 4/5 | 80.0 | 43 | 2/2 | 14 |
Punting
| MTST | NO | YDS | AVG | TB | In 20 | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Colby Frokjer #30 | 5 | 216 | 43.2 | 1 | 2 | 59 |
| Team | 5 | 216 | 43.2 | 1 | 2 | 59 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| MTST | IDST | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Downs | 20 | 26 |
| 3rd down efficiency | 4-16 | 9-18 |
| 4th down efficiency | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| Total Yards | 332 | 410 |
| Passing | 209 | 318 |
| Comp/Att | 22/37 | 30/53 |
| Yards per pass | 5.6 | 6.0 |
| Rushing | 123 | 92 |
| Rushing Attempts | 31 | 30 |
| Yards per rush | 4.0 | 3.1 |
| Penalties | 6-55 | 4-31 |
| Turnovers | 0 | 2 |
| Fumbles lost | 0 | 1 |
| Interceptions thrown | 0 | 1 |
| Possession | 26:34 | 33:26 |
At lock MTST 34.56–24.33 IDST · MTST by 10.2 pts vs IDST +14 · 54% is the confidence saved at lock
HitJustin Lamson · MTST
22/37 C/ATT · 209 YDSJordan Cooke · IDST
30/52 C/ATT · 318 YDSAdam Jones · MTST
12 CAR · 49 YDSDane Steel · MTST
7 REC · 75 YDSTommy Poe · IDST
9 REC · 100 YDSCole Taylor · MTST
10 TOT · 6 SOLO
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Montana St vs Idaho St pick result · Nov 7, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is IDST +14, with a 54% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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