NCAAFFinalKibbie Dome

Eastern Washington Eagles at Idaho Vandals

Final · ESPN+

31–62

E WashingtonIdaho

Final

Eastern Washington Eagles

2-8

Final

Idaho Vandals

5-5

EWU 32%IDHO 68%

At lock: projected EWU 28.10–35.48 IDHO

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 11:38 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2848750683

Winner called · off by 37

Most typical sim

EWU 26 – IDHO 30

Final

EWU 31 – IDHO 62

Winner: Idaho (59%)
Score error (both teams)37

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: EWU vs IDHO

The model

How this number was built

EWU 28.10–35.48 IDHO · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -2.9 vs -2.9 · model IDHO 29.5–26.3 EWU
Home field
+3.0 pts to IDHO
Record
IDHO 5-5 · EWU 2-8
Market prior
Blended 66% toward IDHO -9.5 / total 67.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
EWU	3	7	7	14	31
IDHO	14	21	10	17	62

How the points were scored

TDQ1 9:510–7
Joshua Wood 28 Yd Run (Owen Forsman Kick)
FGQ1 4:523–7
Soren McKee 37 Yd Field Goal
TDQ1 2:213–14
Nolan McWilliams 33 Yd pass from Joshua Wood (Owen Forsman Kick)
TDQ2 11:113–21
Lonyatta Alexander Jr. 25 Yd pass from Joshua Wood (Owen Forsman Kick)
TDQ2 7:4410–21
Jaxon Bell 25 Yd pass from Nate Bell (Soren McKee Kick)
TDQ2 2:2310–28
Joshua Wood 5 Yd Run (Owen Forsman Kick)
TDQ2 0:1010–35
Zack Card 2 Yd pass from Joshua Wood (Owen Forsman Kick)
FGQ3 8:3410–38
Owen Forsman 39 Yd Field Goal
TDQ3 3:3717–38
Nate Bell 6 Yd Run (Soren McKee Kick)
TDQ3 0:0017–45
Israel Carter 2 Yd Run (Owen Forsman Kick)
TDQ4 13:0817–52
Israel Carter 39 Yd Run (Owen Forsman Kick)
TDQ4 10:3317–59
Israel Carter 69 Yd Run (Owen Forsman Kick)
TDQ4 7:5124–59
Jaxon Bell 6 Yd pass from Jake Schakel (Soren McKee Kick)
FGQ4 4:5424–62
Owen Forsman 53 Yd Field Goal
TDQ4 0:2931–62
David Cabrera 25 Yd pass from Jake Schakel (Soren McKee Kick)

Player stats

Full box — every player, every category.

Passing

EWU	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	adjQBR
Nate Bell #2	17/24	174	7.3	1	0	—
Jake Schakel #12	6/10	74	7.4	2	1	—
Team	23/34	248	7.3	3	1	—

Rushing

EWU	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Jaxon Bell #29	6	22	3.7	0	7
Nate Bell #2	9	13	1.4	1	6
Israel Robles #25	4	13	3.3	0	7
Kevin Allen III #3	7	4	0.6	0	4
Team	1	-1	-1.0	0	0
Drew Carlson #80	1	-1	-1.0	0	0
Team	28	50	1.8	1	7

Receiving

EWU	REC	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Jaxon Bell #29	3	42	14.0	2	25
Jaxon Branch #6	4	37	9.3	0	15
Rylin Lang #83	3	31	10.3	0	15
Drew Carlson #80	2	30	15.0	0	17
David Cabrera #14	1	25	25.0	1	25
Wesley Garrett #13	4	23	5.8	0	8
Israel Robles #25	1	22	22.0	0	22
Kayden Stuit #44	1	18	18.0	0	18
Kevin Allen III #3	2	8	4.0	0	6
Jamai East #17	1	6	6.0	0	6
Oliver Luebkert #89	1	6	6.0	0	6
Team	23	248	10.8	3	25

Fumbles

EWU	FUM	LOST	REC
Jaden Radke #94	0	0	1
Team	0	0	1

Defense

EWU	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HUR
LJ Roberts #10	9	3	0	0	0	0
Bryce Smith #1	8	3	0	0	1	0
Vincent Macaluso #37	7	3	0	0	0	0
Myles Mayovsky #9	7	1	0	0	1	1
Ambrose Marsh #8	6	2	0	0	0	0
Ben Voigtlaender #11	6	1	1.5	1.5	0	0
Carson Moore #53	4	3	0	0	0	0
McKel Broussard #0	4	2	0	0	0	0
Seanje Finister #38	4	2	0	0	0	0
Marcus Nixon #23	3	2	0	0	0	0
Dishawn Misa #12	3	1	1	1	0	0
Isaiah Perez #4	3	1	0.5	1.5	0	1
Jaylon Jenkins #31	3	1	0	0	0	0
JoJo Maxey-Johnson #34	2	1	0	0	0	0
Messiah Washington #21	2	1	0	0	0	0
Zamarie Tellez #47	2	1	0	0	0	0
Justis La'ulu #90	2	0	0	0	0	0
Jaden Radke #94	1	0	0	0	0	0
Jaxon Bell #29	1	0	0	0	0	0
Jameson Wade #46	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team	78	28	3	4	2	2

Kick returns

EWU	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG
Jaxon Bell #29	3	64	21.3	22
Cole Abarca #58	1	0	0.0	0
Team	4	64	16.0	22

Punt returns

EWU	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG	TD
Jaxon Bell #29	1	28	28.0	28	0
Team	1	28	28.0	28	0

Kicking

EWU	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Soren McKee #16	1/1	100.0	37	4/4	7
Team	1/1	100.0	37	4/4	7

Punting

EWU	NO	YDS	AVG	TB	In 20	LONG
Luke Faccone #97	5	194	38.8	0	1	45
Team	5	194	38.8	0	1	45

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	EWU	IDHO
1st Downs	20	31
3rd down efficiency	5-14	8-11
4th down efficiency	2-2	0-0
Total Yards	298	650
Passing	248	315
Comp/Att	23/34	20/33
Yards per pass	7.3	9.5
Rushing	50	335
Rushing Attempts	28	42
Yards per rush	1.8	8.0
Penalties	6-55	8-89
Turnovers	1	1
Fumbles lost	0	1
Interceptions thrown	1	0
Possession	26:29	33:31

Computer pick · Spread

EWU +9.5

52%

At lock EWU 28.10–35.48 IDHO · IDHO by 7.4 pts vs EWU +9.5 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock

Miss

Players

Nate Bell · EWU
17/24 C/ATT · 174 YDS
Joshua Wood · IDHO
20/29 C/ATT · 315 YDS
Jaxon Bell · EWU
6 CAR · 22 YDS
Israel Carter · IDHO
7 CAR · 164 YDS
Nolan McWilliams · IDHO
4 REC · 86 YDS
LJ Roberts · EWU
9 TOT · 3 SOLO

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

E Washington vs Idaho pick result · Nov 7, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is EWU +9.5, with a 52% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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