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NCAAFFinalMustang Memorial Field at Spanos Stadium

Northern Arizona Lumberjacks at Cal Poly Mustangs

Final · ESPN+

N Arizona38–10Cal Poly
N ArizonaCal Poly
Final
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
8-2
38
Final
Final
Cal Poly Mustangs
4-7
10
NAU 75%CP 25%

At lock: projected NAU 35.68–24.96 CP

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 11:38 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2714382636

Missed · off by 30
Most typical sim
NAU 26 – CP 28
Final
NAU 38 – CP 10
  • Winner: Cal Poly (55%)
  • Score error (both teams)30

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: NAU vs CP

The model

How this number was built

NAU 35.68–24.96 CP · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.

  • Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
    Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -2.6 vs -2.0 · model CP 28.0–25.6 NAU
  • Home field
    +3.0 pts to CP
  • Record
    CP 4-7 · NAU 8-2
  • Market prior
    Blended 80% toward NAU -13.5 / total 62.5
Full write-up of the model

Line score

Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NAU7176838
CP073010

How the points were scored

  • TDQ1 3:577–0

    Quran Gossett 5 Yd Run (Francisco Orduno Jr. Kick)

  • TDQ2 14:527–7

    Tayvion McCoy 13 Yd Run (Josue Lopez Kick)

  • FGQ2 7:2110–7

    Francisco Orduno Jr. 24 Yd Field Goal

  • TDQ2 4:4417–7

    Quran Gossett 1 Yd Run (Francisco Orduno Jr. Kick)

  • TDQ2 0:2424–7

    Quran Gossett 3 Yd Run (Francisco Orduno Jr. Kick)

  • TDQ3 11:5930–7

    Ty Pennington 59 Yd Run (Francisco Orduno Jr. PAT failed)

  • FGQ3 3:3430–10

    Josue Lopez 39 Yd Field Goal

  • TDQ4 12:3838–10

    Jeter Purdy 6 Yd Run (Ty Pennington Pass to Deuce Zimmerman for Two-Point Conversion)

Player stats

Full box — every player, every category.

Passing

NAUC/ATTYDSAVGTDINTadjQBR
Ty Pennington
#6
14/291304.500—
Team14/291304.500—

Rushing

NAUCARYDSAVGTDLONG
Ty Pennington
#6
911112.3159
Quran Gossett
#10
16815.1322
Jon Wilson
#32
8394.9019
Jeter Purdy
#89
166.016
Lindsey Graves
#13
210.503
Donivan Dixon
#2
100.000
Team372386.4559

Receiving

NAURECYDSAVGTDLONG
Joey Stout
#3
9728.0025
D
Darius Haskin
#1
13737.0037
Deuce Zimmerman
#11
11111.0011
Nassim Isaac
#87
166.006
Myseth Currie
#4
242.003
Team141309.3037

Fumbles

NAUFUMLOSTREC
Ty Pennington
#6
100
Ziggy Loa
#11
001
Team101

Defense

NAUTOTSOLOSACKSTFLPDQB HURTD
Shoes Brinkley
#1
7300.5000
Ziggy Loa
#11
5300010
Shahid Wilson
#6
5200200
Noble Young-Blackgoat
#16
5200.5000
Ammon Allen
#2
4300100
Devin Murphy
#35
421.52110
JaSire Peterson
#55
4200000
Nijrell Eason II
#10
3300000
Michael Beresford
#4
3300000
Jaiden Letua
#8
3200010
Braylon Singleton
#7
3200000
Jordan Lee
#42
3100000
Maddox Valoaga
#46
300.51000
Jahaad Fort
#3
2100100
Rocky Jack
#25
1100000
Nikhil Webb-Walker
#15
1100030
Myles Singleton
#17
1100000
Jayden Baer
#96
1100000
Xavion Brazil
#20
1100000
Bryson Torrie
#22
1100000
Malaki Te'o
#28
1000000
Braeden Kaczmarek
#98
1000000
Jackson Murray
#0
1000.5000
Jon Wilson
#32
1000.5000
Matthew Cooks
#18
1000000
Nehemiah Norwood
#27
1000000
Jordan Pigram
#90
1000000
Team673525560

Interceptions

NAUINTYDSTD
Jordan Lee
#42
100
Team100

Kick returns

NAUNOYDSAVGLONGTD
Lindsey Graves
#13
24020.0210
Team24020.0210

Punt returns

NAUNOYDSAVGLONGTD
Luke Edgecomb
#84
12121.0210
Team12121.0210

Kicking

NAUFGPCTLONGXPPTS
Francisco Orduno Jr.
#99
1/1100.0243/46
Team1/1100.0243/46

Punting

NAUNOYDSAVGTBIn 20LONG
Sebastian Miles
#91
313143.70053
Tyler Manship
#37
14343.00043
Team417443.50053

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

NAUCP
1st Downs1816
3rd down efficiency10-165-14
4th down efficiency1-10-1
Total Yards368249
Passing130146
Comp/Att14/2918/28
Yards per pass4.55.2
Rushing238103
Rushing Attempts3732
Yards per rush6.43.2
Penalties2-154-42
Turnovers02
Fumbles lost01
Interceptions thrown01
Possession29:1430:46
Computer pick · Spread
CP +14
53%

At lock NAU 35.68–24.96 CP · NAU by 10.7 pts vs CP +14 · 53% is the confidence saved at lock

Miss
Players

  • Ty Pennington · NAU

    14/29 C/ATT · 130 YDS

  • Bo Kelly · CP

    18/28 C/ATT · 146 YDS

  • Jaden Green · CP

    13 CAR · 52 YDS

  • Joey Stout · NAU

    9 REC · 72 YDS

  • Tayvion McCoy · CP

    11 REC · 119 YDS

  • Shoes Brinkley · NAU

    7 TOT · 3 SOLO

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

N Arizona vs Cal Poly pick result · Nov 7, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is CP +14, with a 53% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: NCAAF picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day

Overline Sports

Projections blend power-index ratings with DraftKings lines. Every game carries a computer pick and a tagged DK prop; closed games are graded against those pre-game leans. Statistical estimates, not betting advice. Live scores, clocks, and team pages from ESPN.

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