Eastern Kentucky Colonels at Austin Peay Governors
Final · ESPN+
31–55
At lock: projected EKU 18.32–34.22 APSU
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 11:38 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 669190404
- Winner: Austin Peay (72%)
- Score error (both teams)33
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: EKU vs APSU
The model
How this number was built
EKU 18.32–34.22 APSU · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -0.8 vs -4.8 · model APSU 30.8–21.3 EKU
- Home field+3.0 pts to APSU
- RecordAPSU 8-2 · EKU 3-7
- Market priorBlended 80% toward APSU -19.5 / total 50.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EKU | 0 | 17 | 14 | 0 | 31 |
| APSU | 17 | 17 | 7 | 14 | 55 |
How the points were scored
- TDQ1 14:470–7
Kaden Williams 100 Yd Kickoff Return (Hamilton DiBoyan Kick)
- FGQ1 8:340–10
Hamilton DiBoyan 32 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ1 3:450–17
Kaden Williams 33 Yd Run (Hamilton DiBoyan Kick)
- TDQ2 13:377–17
Elijah Caldwell 21 Yd pass from Myles Burkett (Devin Orr Kick)
- TDQ2 10:487–24
Courtland Simmons 22 Yd Run (Hamilton DiBoyan Kick)
- TDQ2 7:527–31
Chris Parson 58 Yd Run (Hamilton DiBoyan Kick)
- TDQ2 6:0014–31
Jayden West 13 Yd pass from Myles Burkett (Devin Orr Kick)
- FGQ2 3:3017–31
Devin Orr 40 Yd Field Goal
- FGQ2 0:0717–34
Hamilton DiBoyan 46 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ3 10:4724–34
Caeleb Schlachter 19 Yd pass from Myles Burkett (Devin Orr Kick)
- TDQ3 7:0231–34
Brady Hensley 54 Yd pass from Myles Burkett (Devin Orr Kick)
- TDQ3 3:2931–41
Jackson Head 39 Yd pass from Chris Parson (Hamilton DiBoyan Kick)
- TDQ4 5:1131–48
Chris Parson 26 Yd Run (Hamilton DiBoyan Kick)
- TDQ4 4:2331–55
Keith Charney 25 Yd Interception Return (Hamilton DiBoyan Kick)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
Passing
| EKU | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | adjQBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Myles Burkett #10 | 21/33 | 302 | 9.2 | 4 | 1 | — |
| Team | 21/33 | 302 | 9.2 | 4 | 1 | — |
Rushing
| EKU | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Brady Hensley #42 | 14 | 55 | 3.9 | 0 | 21 |
 Brayden Latham #14 | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 | 7 |
Myles Burkett #10 | 9 | -33 | -3.7 | 0 | 7 |
| Team | 27 | 32 | 1.2 | 0 | 21 |
Receiving
| EKU | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jayden West #0 | 7 | 120 | 17.1 | 1 | 50 |
 Elijah Caldwell #9 | 5 | 83 | 16.6 | 1 | 21 |
Brady Hensley #42 | 3 | 55 | 18.3 | 1 | 54 |
 Caeleb Schlachter #89 | 1 | 19 | 19.0 | 1 | 19 |
 Jackson House #16 | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 | 7 |
Brayden Latham #14 | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 | 5 |
| Team | 21 | 302 | 14.4 | 4 | 54 |
Defense
| EKU | TOT | SOLO | SACKS | TFL | PD | QB HUR | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Cam Jessee #39 | 10 | 5 | 0 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Derek Taylor #10 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0.5 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Jeffrey Kinley #30 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Keshawn Hayden #4 | 5 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Aden Tagaloa-Nelson #13 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Caleb Redd #34 | 5 | 2 | 0.5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Kaden Smith #1 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Jack McGrath #25 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
 Jackson Marshall #37 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Nasir Spruill #5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Brayden Latham #14 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Cristian Conyer #12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Payne Miller #97 | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 D.J. Galva #6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jalen Hand #96 | 1 | 0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Davi'yon Hawkins-Ingram #91 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 66 | 26 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
Interceptions
| EKU | INT | YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|
Kaden Smith #1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Kick returns
| EKU | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Cortez Stone #22 | 2 | 31 | 15.5 | 19 | 0 |
Brayden Latham #14 | 1 | 27 | 27.0 | 27 | 0 |
| Team | 3 | 58 | 19.3 | 27 | 0 |
Kicking
| EKU | FG | PCT | LONG | XP | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Devin Orr #44 | 1/1 | 100.0 | 40 | 4/4 | 7 |
| Team | 1/1 | 100.0 | 40 | 4/4 | 7 |
Punting
| EKU | NO | YDS | AVG | TB | In 20 | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
J Jettson Brown #27 | 6 | 242 | 40.3 | 0 | 1 | 45 |
| Team | 6 | 242 | 40.3 | 0 | 1 | 45 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| EKU | APSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Downs | 16 | 23 |
| 3rd down efficiency | 5-14 | 3-7 |
| 4th down efficiency | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Total Yards | 334 | 503 |
| Passing | 302 | 194 |
| Comp/Att | 21/33 | 13/21 |
| Yards per pass | 9.2 | 9.2 |
| Rushing | 32 | 309 |
| Rushing Attempts | 27 | 38 |
| Yards per rush | 1.2 | 8.1 |
| Penalties | 4-25 | 3-30 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 1 |
| Fumbles lost | 0 | 0 |
| Interceptions thrown | 1 | 1 |
| Possession | 28:48 | 31:12 |
At lock EKU 18.32–34.22 APSU · APSU by 15.9 pts vs EKU +17.5 · 53% is the confidence saved at lock
MissMyles Burkett · EKU
21/33 C/ATT · 302 YDSChris Parson · APSU
13/21 C/ATT · 194 YDSBrady Hensley · EKU
14 CAR · 55 YDSJayden West · EKU
7 REC · 120 YDSMarvin Sims · APSU
5 REC · 80 YDSCam Jessee · EKU
10 TOT · 5 SOLO
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
E Kentucky vs Austin Peay pick result · Nov 7, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is EKU +17.5, with a 53% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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