NCAAFFinalTarleton Memorial Stadium

Abilene Christian Wildcats at Tarleton State Texans

Final · ESPN+

27–40

Abilene ChrstnTarleton St

Final

Abilene Christian Wildcats

5-5

Final

Tarleton State Texans

10-0

ACU 32%TAR 68%

At lock: projected ACU 25.85–33.53 TAR

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 11:38 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2934610254

Winner called · off by 15

Most typical sim

ACU 22 – TAR 30

Final

ACU 27 – TAR 40

Winner: Tarleton St (68%)
Score error (both teams)15

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: ACU vs TAR

The model

How this number was built

ACU 25.85–33.53 TAR · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +0.4 vs -2.2 · model TAR 29.7–22.3 ACU
Home field
+3.0 pts to TAR
Record
TAR 10-0 · ACU 5-5
Market prior
Blended 66% toward TAR -10 / total 58.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
ACU	10	3	7	7	27
TAR	21	7	0	12	40

How the points were scored

TDQ1 14:470–7
Tylan Hines 75 Yd Run (Alejandro De La Poza Kick)
FGQ1 8:463–7
Brandon Perez 43 Yd Field Goal
TDQ1 8:343–14
Marquis Willis 75 Yd pass from Kaden Anderson (Alejandro De La Poza Kick)
TDQ1 3:3110–14
Tucker Parks 4 Yd Run (Brandon Perez Kick)
TDQ1 1:5510–21
Marquis Willis 41 Yd pass from Kaden Anderson (Alejandro De La Poza Kick)
FGQ2 10:5513–21
Brandon Perez 33 Yd Field Goal
TDQ2 3:0713–28
James Paige 1 Yd Run (Alejandro De La Poza Kick)
TDQ3 6:5620–28
Dallas Dudley 7 Yd pass from Tucker Parks (Brandon Perez Kick)
TDQ4 7:3720–34
Tylan Hines 6 Yd Run (Alejandro De La Poza PAT failed)
TDQ4 7:1520–40
Tylan Hines 13 Yd Run (Alejandro De La Poza PAT failed)
TDQ4 1:5927–40
Brandon Johnson 8 Yd Run (Brandon Perez Kick)

Player stats

Full box — every player, every category.

Passing

ACU	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	adjQBR
Tucker Parks #12	25/30	215	7.2	1	0	—
Team	25/30	215	7.2	1	0	—

Rushing

ACU	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Alex Broome #20	10	95	9.5	0	24
Tucker Parks #12	19	44	2.3	1	13
Rovaughn Banks Jr. #2	13	41	3.2	0	8
Brandon Johnson #15	3	16	5.3	1	8
Deonte Dean #3	4	16	4.0	0	6
Team	49	212	4.3	2	24

Receiving

ACU	REC	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Cristian Driver #4	4	71	17.8	0	23
Dallas Dudley #13	4	43	10.8	1	14
Jayden York #0	6	29	4.8	0	8
Larry Benton III #88	1	19	19.0	0	19
Brandon Johnson #15	1	17	17.0	0	17
Itty Henry #87	3	13	4.3	0	7
Alex Broome #20	1	6	6.0	0	6
Seth Weller #18	1	6	6.0	0	6
Deonte Dean #3	1	6	6.0	0	6
Rovaughn Banks Jr. #2	3	5	1.7	0	3
Team	25	215	8.6	1	23

Fumbles

ACU	FUM	LOST
Jayden York #0	1	1
Team	1	0
Deonte Dean #3	1	0
Team	3	1

Defense

ACU	TOT	SOLO	TFL
Dillon Williams #3	5	3	0
S Santana Miller #32	4	3	1
Jocelyn Malaska #5	3	3	0
Boone Morris #23	3	3	1
Javeon Wilcox #22	3	2	0
Darius Moore #0	2	2	0
M MJ Harrell #19	2	2	0
H Hudson Page #42	2	0	0
Jacoby Davis #16	1	1	0
Christian Oku #7	1	1	0
Kortlin Rausaw #9	1	0	0
Obi Udom #92	1	0	0
Team	28	20	2

Kick returns

ACU	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG
Deonte Dean #3	3	43	14.3	20
T Trae Hill #21	1	14	14.0	14
Team	4	57	14.3	20

Kicking

ACU	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Brandon Perez #23	2/3	67.0	43	3/3	9
Team	2/3	66.7	43	3/3	9

Punting

ACU	NO	YDS	AVG	In 20	LONG
Jace Gilbert #20	2	90	45.0	1	47
Hugo Nash #33	1	28	28.0	1	28
Team	3	118	39.3	2	47

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	ACU	TAR
1st Downs	25	14
3rd down efficiency	6-15	1-4
4th down efficiency	3-3	0-0
Total Yards	427	419
Passing	215	213
Comp/Att	25/30	7/9
Yards per pass	7.2	23.7
Rushing	212	206
Rushing Attempts	49	25
Yards per rush	4.3	8.2
Penalties	7-65	2-15
Turnovers	1	0
Fumbles lost	1	0
Interceptions thrown	0	0
Possession	43:25	16:35

Computer pick · Spread

ACU +10

53%

At lock ACU 25.85–33.53 TAR · TAR by 7.7 pts vs ACU +10 · 53% is the confidence saved at lock

Miss

Players

Tucker Parks · ACU
25/30 C/ATT · 215 YDS
Kaden Anderson · TAR
7/9 C/ATT · 213 YDS
Alex Broome · ACU
10 CAR · 95 YDS
Tylan Hines · TAR
14 CAR · 145 YDS
Cristian Driver · ACU
4 REC · 71 YDS
Marquis Willis · TAR
3 REC · 166 YDS

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Abilene Chrstn vs Tarleton St pick result · Nov 7, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is ACU +10, with a 53% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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