Lafayette Leopards at William & Mary Tribe
Final · ESPN+
19–14
At lock: projected LAF 26.92–26.56 W&M
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 11:38 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2900069278
- Winner: William & Mary (60%)
- Score error (both teams)23
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: LAF vs W&M
The model
How this number was built
LAF 26.92–26.56 W&M · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -4.2 vs -4.6 · model W&M 29.5–25.7 LAF
- Home field+3.0 pts to W&M
- RecordW&M 3-7 · LAF 4-5
- Market priorBlended 66% toward LAF -2.5 / total 52.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAF | 0 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 19 |
| W&M | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 14 |
How the points were scored
- TDQ1 7:460–7
Carson Jenkins 68 Yd pass from Winston Watkins (Max Lipinski Kick)
- TDQ2 11:440–14
Andrew King 39 Yd Run (Max Lipinski Kick)
- FGQ2 1:533–14
Jack Simonetta 28 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ3 2:3310–14
Jason Penza 50 Yd Run (Jack Simonetta Kick)
- FGQ4 12:5213–14
Jack Simonetta 44 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ4 4:4119–14
Mason Kuehner 12 Yd pass from Jason Penza (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
Passing
| LAF | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | adjQBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
E Eddie Jordan #11 | 11/20 | 130 | 6.5 | 0 | 0 | — |
 Jason Penza #15 | 3/4 | 20 | 5.0 | 1 | 0 | — |
| Team | 14/24 | 150 | 6.3 | 1 | 0 | — |
Rushing
| LAF | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jason Penza #15 | 21 | 140 | 6.7 | 1 | 50 |
 Jakyre Henley #5 | 15 | 68 | 4.5 | 0 | 23 |
M Malachi Gamble #34 | 6 | 28 | 4.7 | 0 | 12 |
E Eddie Jordan #11 | 6 | 8 | 1.3 | 0 | 7 |
 Nick Bierman #87 | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 | 7 |
| Team | 49 | 251 | 5.1 | 1 | 50 |
Receiving
| LAF | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Mason Kuehner #8 | 5 | 58 | 11.6 | 1 | 16 |
K Kameron Vance #13 | 3 | 30 | 10.0 | 0 | 23 |
Jakyre Henley #5 | 2 | 27 | 13.5 | 0 | 18 |
 Carson Persing #7 | 2 | 21 | 10.5 | 0 | 12 |
 Matthew Scerbo #10 | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 | 9 |
Nick Bierman #87 | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | 5 |
| Team | 14 | 150 | 10.7 | 1 | 23 |
Fumbles
| LAF | FUM | LOST | REC |
|---|---|---|---|
E Eddie Jordan #11 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Defense
| LAF | TOT | SOLO | SACKS | TFL | PD | QB HUR | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Beckham Dee #11 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Callahan Blair #6 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Dhonte Jackson #1 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Ian Langan #15 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Darien Riley #99 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
 Daniel Adefolarin #8 | 4 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Darrick LeBeouf #7 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Luke Dale #20 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Michael Vaughn #95 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Joey Shimko #52 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Xavier Johnson #0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Kingston Evans #17 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
J Jay Burrell #25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Sean Kabengele #91 | 2 | 0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Brandon Albert #14 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
G George Mancini #22 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jalen Edwards #2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 57 | 25 | 4 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Kick returns
| LAF | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Zane Wooldridge #4 | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 14 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 14 | 0 |
Punt returns
| LAF | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Nick Bierman #87 | 2 | 32 | 16.0 | 21 | 0 |
Mason Kuehner #8 | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 8 | 0 |
Daniel Adefolarin #8 | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 5 | 0 |
| Team | 4 | 45 | 11.3 | 21 | 0 |
Kicking
| LAF | FG | PCT | LONG | XP | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jack Simonetta #17 | 2/2 | 100.0 | 44 | 1/1 | 7 |
| Team | 2/2 | 100.0 | 44 | 1/1 | 7 |
Punting
| LAF | NO | YDS | AVG | TB | In 20 | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Christian Bush #38 | 6 | 238 | 39.7 | 1 | 2 | 45 |
| Team | 6 | 238 | 39.7 | 1 | 2 | 45 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| LAF | W&M | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Downs | 23 | 13 |
| 3rd down efficiency | 5-14 | 3-13 |
| 4th down efficiency | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| Total Yards | 401 | 275 |
| Passing | 150 | 132 |
| Comp/Att | 14/24 | 14/25 |
| Yards per pass | 6.3 | 5.3 |
| Rushing | 251 | 143 |
| Rushing Attempts | 49 | 30 |
| Yards per rush | 5.1 | 4.8 |
| Penalties | 7-41 | 3-35 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 0 |
| Fumbles lost | 1 | 0 |
| Interceptions thrown | 0 | 0 |
| Possession | 35:39 | 24:21 |
At lock LAF 26.92–26.56 W&M · LAF by 0.4 pts vs W&M +2.5 · 53% is the confidence saved at lock
MissEddie Jordan · LAF
11/20 C/ATT · 130 YDSWinston Watkins · W&M
14/25 C/ATT · 132 YDSJason Penza · LAF
21 CAR · 140 YDSAndrew King · W&M
17 CAR · 96 YDSMason Kuehner · LAF
5 REC · 58 YDSCarson Jenkins · W&M
2 REC · 71 YDS
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Lafayette vs William & Mary pick result · Nov 7, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is W&M +2.5, with a 53% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAF picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day