NCAAFFinalCooper Field

Holy Cross Crusaders at Georgetown Hoyas

Final · ESPN+

27–24

Holy CrossGeorgetown

Final

Holy Cross Crusaders

5-5

Final

Georgetown Hoyas

3-5

HC 62%GTWN 38%

At lock: projected HC 27.83–22.73 GTWN

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 11:38 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2816034088

Missed · off by 6

Most typical sim

HC 25 – GTWN 28

Final

HC 27 – GTWN 24

Winner: Georgetown (57%)
Score error (both teams)6

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: HC vs GTWN

The model

How this number was built

HC 27.83–22.73 GTWN · Medium confidence

Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.

Attack / defense
GTWN -0.1 off · HC -0.1 off, shrunk 58%
Home field
+3.0 pts to GTWN
Record
GTWN 3-5 · HC 5-5
Market prior
Blended 81% toward HC -7 / total 47.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
HC	0	14	7	6	27
GTWN	10	14	0	0	24

How the points were scored

FGQ1 10:410–3
Thomas Anderson 40 Yd Field Goal
TDQ1 4:260–10
Clay Ash 1 Yd Run (Thomas Anderson Kick)
TDQ2 12:117–10
Joseph Williams 1 Yd Run (Owen Saraceno Kick)
TDQ2 6:067–17
Jayden Sumpter 4 Yd Run (Thomas Anderson Kick)
TDQ2 2:5214–17
Luke Petitta 2 Yd pass from David Lynch (Owen Saraceno Kick)
TDQ2 0:3714–24
Jonathan Alexander 12 Yd pass from Gavin Beard (Thomas Anderson Kick)
TDQ3 8:1221–24
Ty Curran 33 Yd pass from David Lynch (Owen Saraceno Kick)
TDQ4 0:2727–24
Lincoln Fisher 17 Yd pass from Joseph Williams (Owen Saraceno PAT failed)

Player stats

Full box — every player, every category.

Passing

HC	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	adjQBR
David Lynch #16	16/26	140	5.4	2	1	—
Joseph Williams #0	1/1	17	17.0	1	0	—
Team	0/2	0	0.0	0	0	—
Team	17/29	157	5.4	3	1	—

Rushing

HC	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Joseph Williams #0	14	51	3.6	1	8
David Lynch #16	8	44	5.5	0	18
Datrell Jones #1	7	18	2.6	0	6
Jake Croce #40	3	14	4.7	0	6
Ty Curran #3	1	7	7.0	0	7
Team	1	-1	-1.0	0	0
Team	34	133	3.9	1	18

Receiving

HC	REC	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Ty Curran #3	6	73	12.2	1	33
Joseph Williams #0	5	26	5.2	0	21
Drae Tyme #84	1	19	19.0	0	19
Lincoln Fisher #2	1	17	17.0	1	17
Lucas Weir #13	1	9	9.0	0	9
Mason McSweeney #44	1	8	8.0	0	8
Datrell Jones #1	1	3	3.0	0	3
Luke Petitta #83	1	2	2.0	1	2
Team	17	157	9.2	3	33

Fumbles

HC	FUM	LOST	REC
David Lynch #16	1	0	0
Team	1	0	0

Defense

HC	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD
Adam Due #8	9	3	0	0	0
Jalen Rambert #15	7	5	0	0	0
Braden Haas #14	7	5	0	0	1
Juju Tackie #10	6	5	0	1	2
Garrett Baldwin #20	6	3	0	0	0
Cooper Ackerman #55	5	1	1	1	0
Chisom Onwuzurigbo #7	4	3	0	1	1
Rushaune Vilane #42	4	3	0	0	0
Gabe Flores #50	4	2	0	0	0
Carlo Crocetti #6	3	3	1	1	0
Brady Fodor #91	3	2	0	1	0
Travon Chardonet #38	3	1	0	0	2
Anthony Redfern #21	2	2	0	0	0
Vin Ferrara #97	2	2	0	0	0
Will Miller #53	2	1	0	0	0
Aidan Horodnik #95	2	1	0	0	0
Julian Jones #31	2	0	0	0	0
Cameron Mills #37	1	1	0	0	0
Bennett Nunnally #71	1	1	0	0	0
Alessandro Garrett #48	1	1	0	0	0
Mateo Brink #43	1	1	0	1	1
Matthew Boucher #47	1	1	0	0	0
Billy Matan #54	1	0	0	0	0
Team	77	47	2	6	7

Interceptions

HC	INT	YDS
Garrett Baldwin #20	1	5
Braden Haas #14	1	0
Team	2	5

Kick returns

HC	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG
Jake Croce #40	3	76	25.3	51
Joseph Williams #0	1	23	23.0	23
Team	4	99	24.8	51

Punt returns

HC	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG	TD
Garrett Baldwin #20	3	9	3.0	8	0
Team	3	9	3.0	8	0

Kicking

HC	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Owen Saraceno #36	0/0	0.0	0	3/4	3
Team	0/0	0.0	0	3/4	3

Punting

HC	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG
Ethan Moss #49	3	113	37.7	41
Alessandro Garrett #48	1	43	43.0	43
Team	4	156	39.0	43

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	HC	GTWN
1st Downs	20	19
3rd down efficiency	6-12	9-17
4th down efficiency	1-2	1-2
Total Yards	290	341
Passing	157	165
Comp/Att	17/29	15/25
Yards per pass	5.4	6.6
Rushing	133	176
Rushing Attempts	34	45
Yards per rush	3.9	3.9
Penalties	2-18	4-45
Turnovers	1	2
Fumbles lost	0	0
Interceptions thrown	1	2
Possession	28:30	31:30

Computer pick · Spread

GTWN +7

52%

At lock HC 27.83–22.73 GTWN · HC by 5.1 pts vs GTWN +7 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock

Hit

Players

David Lynch · HC
16/26 C/ATT · 140 YDS
Gavin Beard · GTWN
15/25 C/ATT · 165 YDS
Joseph Williams · HC
14 CAR · 51 YDS
Clay Ash · GTWN
17 CAR · 78 YDS
Ty Curran · HC
6 REC · 73 YDS
Jonathan Alexander · GTWN
3 REC · 76 YDS

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Holy Cross vs Georgetown pick result · Nov 7, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is GTWN +7, with a 52% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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