NCAAFFinalWilliam "Dick" Price Stadium

North Carolina Central Eagles at Norfolk State Spartans

Final · ESPN+

29–28

NC CentralNorfolk St

Final

North Carolina Central Eagles

5-5

Final

Norfolk State Spartans

4-6

NCCU 56%NORF 44%

At lock: projected NCCU 27.58–24.97 NORF

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 11:38 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 4277126283

Called it

Most typical sim

NCCU 28 – NORF 27

Final

NCCU 29 – NORF 28

Winner: NC Central (50%)
Score error (both teams)2

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: NCCU vs NORF

The model

How this number was built

NCCU 27.58–24.97 NORF · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -5.6 vs -3.5 · model NORF 27.2–27.1 NCCU
Home field
+3.0 pts to NORF
Record
NORF 4-6 · NCCU 5-5
Market prior
Blended 66% toward NCCU -4 / total 51.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
NCCU	7	0	10	12	29
NORF	14	7	0	7	28

How the points were scored

TDQ1 12:070–7
Jamison Stevens 2 Yd pass from Deljay Bailey (Jake Walker Kick)
TDQ1 7:527–7
Tyree Saunders 15 Yd pass from Joshua Jones (Riley Daniels Kick)
TDQ1 3:387–14
Jason Wonodi 43 Yd pass from Deljay Bailey (Jake Walker Kick)
TDQ2 1:477–21
Deljay Bailey 6 Yd Run (Jake Walker Kick)
TDQ3 13:0814–21
Luke Bracey 8 Yd pass from Joshua Jones (Riley Daniels Kick)
FGQ3 2:2917–21
Riley Daniels 25 Yd Field Goal
TDQ4 14:5417–28
Jalyn Daniels 13 Yd Run (Jake Walker Kick)
TDQ4 11:2023–28
Joshua Jones 7 Yd Run (Riley Daniels PAT failed)
TDQ4 0:2729–28
Mehki Wall 26 Yd pass from Joshua Jones (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)

Player stats

Full box — every player, every category.

Passing

NCCU	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	adjQBR
Joshua Jones #10	16/28	156	5.6	3	2	—
Team	0/2	0	0.0	0	0	—
Team	16/30	156	5.2	3	2	—

Rushing

NCCU	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Gino Addison #20	18	174	9.7	0	31
Joshua Jones #10	9	32	3.6	1	14
Zion Dobson #22	6	15	2.5	0	5
Tristan Stitt #17	0	2	0.0	0	2
Team	1	-2	-2.0	0	0
Team	34	221	6.5	1	31

Receiving

NCCU	REC	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Tyree Saunders #0	6	60	10.0	1	15
Chance Peterson #5	4	41	10.3	0	27
Mehki Wall #1	4	38	9.5	1	26
RJ Lancaster #19	1	9	9.0	0	9
Luke Bracey #83	1	8	8.0	1	8
Team	16	156	9.8	3	27

Fumbles

NCCU	FUM	LOST	REC
Joshua Jones #10	2	0	0
Gino Addison #20	1	1	0
Brendon Wyatt #25	1	0	0
John Clifford Jr. #12	0	0	1
Team	4	1	1

Defense

NCCU	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HUR
Jayden Walker #11	9	3	0.5	0.5	0	0
Joshua Truesdale #26	8	6	0	0	0	0
Ayden Davis #17	7	5	0	1	0	0
Amari Sifford #28	6	6	0	0	0	0
Khareem Thompson #99	6	4	1	3	0	1
John Clifford Jr. #12	6	4	0	0	0	0
TrayVaughn Swanigan #97	4	2	1	1.5	0	0
Jakarri Martin II #6	4	2	0	0	0	0
Camereon Cartlidge #34	4	1	0	0	0	0
Gary Dorsey Jr. #94	3	2	0	1	0	1
Shamar Marshall #31	2	1	0	0	0	0
Cameron Williams #3	2	0	0	0	2	0
M.J. Campbell #0	2	0	0.5	0.5	0	0
Branden Palmer #16	1	1	0	0	0	0
Chance Peterson #5	1	1	0	0	0	0
Richard James #92	1	1	0	0	0	0
Emmanuel Hill #44	1	1	0	0	0	0
Tristan Stitt #17	1	1	0	0	0	0
Isaiah Lawson #41	1	0	0	0	0	0
Tevin Tucker #29	1	0	0	0	0	0
Taeshawn Alston #33	1	0	0	0.5	0	0
Terence Brown #7	1	0	0	0	0	0
Joshua Maxwell #46	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team	73	41	3	8	2	2

Kick returns

NCCU	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG
Mehki Wall #1	1	36	36.0	36
Brendon Wyatt #25	3	35	11.7	16
Team	4	71	17.8	36

Punt returns

NCCU	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG	TD
Damon McDaniel Jr #84	1	1	1.0	1	0
Team	1	1	1.0	1	0

Kicking

NCCU	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Riley Daniels #36	1/1	100.0	25	2/3	5
Team	1/1	100.0	25	2/3	5

Punting

NCCU	NO	YDS	AVG	TB	In 20	LONG
J Jake Marcantel #40	3	109	36.3	1	1	45
Team	3	109	36.3	1	1	45

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	NCCU	NORF
1st Downs	21	23
3rd down efficiency	6-11	4-10
4th down efficiency	0-1	0-0
Total Yards	377	391
Passing	156	278
Comp/Att	16/30	22/26
Yards per pass	5.2	10.7
Rushing	221	113
Rushing Attempts	34	39
Yards per rush	6.5	2.9
Penalties	4-40	8-80
Turnovers	3	1
Fumbles lost	1	1
Interceptions thrown	2	0
Possession	24:01	35:59

Computer pick · Spread

NORF +4

52%

At lock NCCU 27.58–24.97 NORF · NCCU by 2.6 pts vs NORF +4 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock

Hit

Players

Joshua Jones · NCCU
16/28 C/ATT · 156 YDS
Deljay Bailey · NORF
22/26 C/ATT · 278 YDS
Gino Addison · NCCU
18 CAR · 174 YDS
Jalyn Daniels · NORF
17 CAR · 74 YDS
Tyree Saunders · NCCU
6 REC · 60 YDS
Kam'Ryn Thomas · NORF
6 REC · 104 YDS

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

NC Central vs Norfolk St pick result · Nov 7, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is NORF +4, with a 52% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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