NCAAFFinalGreene Stadium

South Carolina State Bulldogs at Howard Bison

Final · ESPNU

35–28

SC StateHoward

Final

South Carolina State Bulldogs

8-2

Final

Howard Bison

4-6

SCST 79%HOW 21%

At lock: projected SCST 32.33–19.24 HOW

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 4, 11:07 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 4209868712

Winner called · off by 11

Most typical sim

SCST 33 – HOW 19

Final

SCST 35 – HOW 28

Winner: SC State (80%)
Spread: HOW +15.5 covers (55%)
Total: Over 50.5 (54%)
Score error (both teams)11

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: SCST vs HOW

The model

How this number was built

SCST 32.33–19.24 HOW · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -7.0 vs -2.7 · model HOW 26.0–29.5 SCST
Home field
+3.0 pts to HOW
Record
HOW 4-6 · SCST 8-2
Market prior
Blended 80% toward SCST -21.5 / total 45.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
SCST	3	18	0	14	35
HOW	7	0	14	7	28

How the points were scored

FGQ1 5:583–0
Jett Jackson 49 Yd Field Goal
TDQ1 2:033–7
Se'Quan Osborne 38 Yd Run (Matt Conord Kick)
FGQ2 10:586–7
Jett Jackson 34 Yd Field Goal
TDQ2 4:2613–7
Jahzae Kimbrough 14 Yd pass from Keely Watson (Jett Jackson Kick)
TDQ2 0:2121–7
Ronnie Robinson 3 Yd Run (Ronnie Robinson Run for Two-Point Conversion)
TDQ3 5:1521–14
Antonio Hunter 11 Yd pass from Isaiah Freeman (Matt Conord Kick)
TDQ3 0:4521–21
Antonio Hunter 26 Yd pass from Isaiah Freeman (Matt Conord Kick)
TDQ4 10:2128–21
Ricorian Brown 9 Yd Run (Jett Jackson Kick)
TDQ4 1:3128–28
CJ Neely 51 Yd pass from Isaiah Freeman (Matt Conord Kick)
TDQ4 0:1735–28
Ricorian Brown 9 Yd Run (Jett Jackson Kick)

Player stats

Full box — every player, every category.

Passing

SCST	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	adjQBR
K Keely Watson #7	21/29	241	8.3	1	—
R Ronnie Robinson #3	2/6	12	2.0	0	—
Team	23/35	253	7.2	1	—

Rushing

SCST	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
R Ricorian Brown #30	15	143	9.5	2	64
Josh Shaw #0	7	38	5.4	0	24
T Troy Hillman #2	3	25	8.3	0	14
Team	1	7	7.0	0	7
R Ronnie Robinson #3	3	6	2.0	1	4
Kacy Fields #22	2	4	2.0	0	4
K Keely Watson #7	3	3	1.0	0	3
Team	34	226	6.6	3	64

Receiving

SCST	REC	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
M Malaqhi Jones #11	9	107	11.9	0	26
T Troy Hillman #2	4	53	13.3	0	33
D DJ Maultsby #80	5	43	8.6	0	15
R Ricorian Brown #30	2	22	11.0	0	15
Jahzae Kimbrough #84	1	14	14.0	1	14
Shamontae Burgess #4	1	5	5.0	0	5
Nicolas Brown #8	1	5	5.0	0	5
Team	23	249	10.8	1	33

Defense

SCST	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HUR
Jadin Jones #6	8	7	0	0	0	2
Ka Von Chisolm #7	7	4	2	3	0	2
Marquis Lane-Owens #12	5	2	0	0	0	0
K Kenneth Brown Jr. #26	4	3	0	0	0	0
Zayveon Wells #19	4	2	0	0	0	0
Marcus Samuels #21	3	3	0	1	3	0
S Sharmari Reed #1	3	2	0	0	0	0
Roderick Kelly Jr. #34	3	2	0	0	0	0
Dominic Reaves #23	2	2	0	0	0	1
Hunter Puckett #29	2	2	0	1	0	1
Jabin Ford #3	2	1	0	0	0	0
Zanjerry Dunham #17	1	1	0	1	0	0
Kwantre' Harry #24	1	1	0	0	0	0
Jaiden Kimble #34	1	1	0	0	0	0
Charron Dorsey #25	1	1	0	0	0	0
J Jaheim Rose #40	1	1	0	0	0	0
J Javon Beckford #16	1	1	0	0	0	0
E Elijah Williams #98	1	1	0	0	0	0
Jordan Franklin #10	1	0	0	0	0	0
R.J. Brunson #4	1	0	0	0	1	0
Jordan Dollard #9	1	0	0	0	0	1
J Joshua Barker #0	1	0	0	0	0	0
M Miles Wilson #95	1	0	0	0	0	0
Michael Evans #2	0	0	0	0	1	0
Team	55	37	2	6	5	7

Interceptions

SCST	INT	YDS	TD
Jabin Ford #3	1	0	0
Team	1	0	0

Kick returns

SCST	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG
Jabin Ford #3	2	45	22.5	28
K Kenneth Brown Jr. #26	1	23	23.0	23
E Eric Paul Jr. #25	1	17	17.0	17
Charron Dorsey #25	1	16	16.0	16
Team	5	101	20.2	28

Punt returns

SCST	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG	TD
Shamontae Burgess #4	3	20	6.7	7	0
Team	3	20	6.7	7	0

Kicking

SCST	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
J Jett Jackson #46	2/2	100.0	49	3/3	9
Team	2/2	100.0	49	3/3	9

Punting

SCST	NO	YDS	AVG	TB	In 20	LONG
Max'Ceon Cobb #36	8	340	42.5	0	5	50
Team	8	340	42.5	0	5	50

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	SCST	HOW
1st Downs	23	20
3rd down efficiency	2-12	4-14
4th down efficiency	1-1	1-1
Total Yards	479	382
Passing	253	233
Comp/Att	23/35	19/37
Yards per pass	7.2	6.3
Rushing	226	149
Rushing Attempts	34	32
Yards per rush	6.6	4.7
Penalties	15-141	11-115
Turnovers	0	1
Fumbles lost	0	0
Interceptions thrown	0	1
Possession	29:30	30:13

Computer pick · Spread

HOW +15.5

53%

At lock SCST 32.33–19.24 HOW · SCST by 13.1 pts vs HOW +15.5 · 53% is the confidence saved at lock

Hit

Players

Keely Watson · SCST
21/29 C/ATT · 241 YDS
Isaiah Freeman · HOW
19/37 C/ATT · 233 YDS
Ricorian Brown · SCST
15 CAR · 143 YDS
Malaqhi Jones · SCST
9 REC · 107 YDS
CJ Neely · HOW
2 REC · 64 YDS
Jadin Jones · SCST
8 TOT · 7 SOLO

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

SC State vs Howard pick result · Nov 5, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is HOW +15.5, with a 53% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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