NCAAFFinalSaxon Stadium

Wagner Seahawks at Mercyhurst Lakers

Final · NEC Front Row

33–28

WagnerMercyhurst

Final

Wagner Seahawks

2-8

Final

Mercyhurst Lakers

1-9

WAG 33%MERC 67%

At lock: projected WAG 22.74–30.01 MERC

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 11:38 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1776672672

Missed · off by 10

Most typical sim

WAG 27 – MERC 32

Final

WAG 33 – MERC 28

Winner: Mercyhurst (62%)
Score error (both teams)10

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: WAG vs MERC

The model

How this number was built

WAG 22.74–30.01 MERC · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -8.4 vs -9.5 · model MERC 31.8–26.9 WAG
Home field
+3.0 pts to MERC
Record
MERC 1-9 · WAG 2-8
Market prior
Blended 66% toward MERC -8.5 / total 49.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
WAG	14	7	6	6	33
MERC	14	7	0	7	28

How the points were scored

TDQ1 9:147–0
Teree McDonald 12 Yd pass from Jason Wiley (Matthew Schwindt Kick)
TDQ1 4:197–7
Ethen Knox 9 Yd pass from Alex Gevaudan (Rocco Marcantonio Kick)
TDQ1 1:1914–7
Malik Redd 10 Yd pass from Jason Wiley (Matthew Schwindt Kick)
TDQ1 1:0414–14
Dylan Evans 67 Yd pass from Alex Gevaudan (Rocco Marcantonio Kick)
TDQ2 1:5521–14
Vincent Cajano III 2 Yd Run (Matthew Schwindt Kick)
TDQ2 1:4121–21
Jason Woods 99 Yd Kickoff Return (Rocco Marcantonio Kick)
TDQ3 6:5527–21
Teree McDonald 22 Yd pass from Jason Wiley (Matthew Schwindt PAT blocked)
TDQ4 13:2127–28
Jason Woods 54 Yd Punt Return (Rocco Marcantonio Kick)
TDQ4 8:2333–28
Shawn James 2 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)

Player stats

Full box — every player, every category.

Passing

WAG	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	adjQBR
J Jason Wiley	30/39	242	6.2	3	0	—
Team	30/39	242	6.2	3	0	—

Rushing

WAG	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Shawn James #33	24	165	6.9	1	39
Uriah Moats-Maynard #28	11	30	2.7	0	9
Sekou Kamau #0	2	10	5.0	0	7
J Jason Wiley	5	8	1.6	0	6
Derek Burrell #19	2	6	3.0	0	4
Vincent Cajano III #16	2	3	1.5	1	2
Team	2	-2	-1.0	0	0
Team	48	220	4.6	2	39

Receiving

WAG	REC	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Derek Burrell #19	3	70	23.3	0	43
Teree McDonald #9	5	69	13.8	2	22
Zion Fowler-El #1	5	36	7.2	0	10
Malik Redd #2	4	29	7.3	1	10
Shawn James #33	5	16	3.2	0	8
Johans Bars #84	1	9	9.0	0	9
Karlos Grier #13	1	5	5.0	0	5
Jeremiah Colclough #4	2	4	2.0	0	6
Vincent Cajano III #16	2	4	2.0	0	3
Ty'Jeh Schulters	1	2	2.0	0	2
Jesse Brooks #81	1	-2	-2.0	0	0
Team	30	242	8.1	3	43

Fumbles

WAG	FUM	LOST	REC
M Mike Bellamy #87	0	0	1
Team	0	0	1

Defense

WAG	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HUR
Logan Barnes #0	4	3	1	1	0	1
Joseph Mahoney #38	4	3	0	0	0	0
Eli Hiscock #12	3	1	1	1	0	1
Acear Cornish #3	3	1	0	0	0	0
Kahmari Valentine #56	2	1	1	1	0	0
Ryan Sissel #7	2	1	0	0	0	0
Austin Bailey #25	2	1	0	0	0	0
Abdoul Idriss #9	2	0	0	0	1	0
Olanrewaju Adeyemi #6	1	1	0	0	0	0
Julio Tatis #24	1	1	0	0	0	0
Grant Edmond #23	1	1	0	0	0	0
Landon Martin #59	1	1	0	0	1	0
Vincent Bertone #40	1	0	0	0	0	0
Karlos Grier #13	1	0	0	0	0	0
Evan Dukes #11	1	0	0	0	0	0
Auston Francis #97	0	0	0	0	0	1
CJ Talabi-Oates #96	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team	29	15	3	3	2	4

Interceptions

WAG	INT	YDS	TD
Freddie Camp #15	1	0	0
Team	1	0	0

Kick returns

WAG	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG	TD
Karlos Grier #13	3	78	26.0	32	0
Team	3	78	26.0	32	0

Punt returns

WAG	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG
Karlos Grier #13	2	14	7.0	13
M Mike Bellamy #87	0	1	0.0	1
Team	2	15	7.5	13

Kicking

WAG	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Matthew Schwindt #92	0/1	0.0	0	3/4	3
Team	0/1	0.0	0	3/4	3

Punting

WAG	NO	YDS	AVG	TB	In 20	LONG
Vincent Muscillo #98	6	204	34.0	1	1	38
Team	6	204	34.0	1	1	38

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	WAG	MERC
1st Downs	27	9
3rd down efficiency	9-18	3-9
4th down efficiency	2-2	0-2
Total Yards	462	208
Passing	242	195
Comp/Att	30/39	12/27
Yards per pass	6.2	7.2
Rushing	220	13
Rushing Attempts	48	14
Yards per rush	4.6	0.9
Penalties	4-30	1-5
Turnovers	0	2
Fumbles lost	0	1
Interceptions thrown	0	1
Possession	41:53	18:07

Computer pick · Spread

WAG +8.5

51%

At lock WAG 22.74–30.01 MERC · MERC by 7.3 pts vs WAG +8.5 · 51% is the confidence saved at lock

Hit

Players

Jason Wiley · WAG
30/39 C/ATT · 242 YDS
Alex Gevaudan · MERC
12/27 C/ATT · 195 YDS
Shawn James · WAG
24 CAR · 165 YDS
Ethen Knox · MERC
8 CAR · 27 YDS
Derek Burrell · WAG
3 REC · 70 YDS
Dylan Evans · MERC
3 REC · 82 YDS

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Wagner vs Mercyhurst pick result · Nov 7, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is WAG +8.5, with a 51% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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