Duquesne Dukes at Stonehill Skyhawks
Final · NEC Front Row
Model: DUQ 20.10–26.31 STO
How close was our sim?
Pre-game sim locked Oct 16, 5:51 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1810080815
- Winner: Stonehill (59%)
- Spread: DUQ +4 covers (50%)
- Total: Over 46.5 (58%)
- Score error (both teams)27
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: DUQ vs STO
The model
How this number was built
DUQ 20.10–26.31 STO · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -3.3 vs -7.5 · model STO 31.3–21.4 DUQ
- Home field+3.0 pts to STO
- RecordSTO 2-5 · DUQ 2-4
- Market priorBlended 68% toward STO -4.5 / total 43.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DUQ | 7 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 14 |
| STO | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
How the points were scored
- TDQ1 11:367–0
Myles Walker 20 Yd pass from Carson Camp (Matt Clark Kick)
- TDQ2 10:527–7
Aidan Garrett 1 Yd Run (Langdon Laws Kick)
- TDQ3 11:1914–7
Carson Camp 5 Yd Run (Matt Clark Kick)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
Passing
| DUQ | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | adjQBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Carson Camp #18 | 11/23 | 243 | 10.6 | 0 | 1 | — |
| Team | 11/23 | 243 | 10.6 | 0 | 1 | — |
Rushing
| DUQ | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Shawn Solomon Jr #4 | 12 | 42 | 3.5 | 0 | 10 |
 Ness Davis #32 | 12 | 23 | 1.9 | 0 | 7 |
Carson Camp #18 | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 1 | 5 |
 Dazhaun Hopkins #0 | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 | 2 |
Team | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 32 | 70 | 2.2 | 1 | 10 |
Receiving
| DUQ | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Myles Walker #2 | 3 | 65 | 21.7 | 0 | 27 |
 Khiryn Boyd #3 | 2 | 55 | 27.5 | 0 | 28 |
A Antwon Thomas #1 | 1 | 44 | 44.0 | 0 | 44 |
 Noah Canty #8 | 1 | 27 | 27.0 | 0 | 27 |
 Ryan Petras #14 | 2 | 27 | 13.5 | 0 | 17 |
 Zae-Mear Correll #6 | 1 | 17 | 17.0 | 0 | 17 |
Ness Davis #32 | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 | 8 |
| Team | 11 | 243 | 22.1 | 0 | 44 |
Fumbles
| DUQ | FUM | LOST | REC |
|---|---|---|---|
Ness Davis #32 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Team | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 3 | 2 | 0 |
Defense
| DUQ | TOT | SOLO | SACKS | TFL | PD | QB HUR | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Luke Miller #55 | 12 | 8 | 0.5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Jeff Banks #18 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Nico Pate #27 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Carter Lance #52 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Zion Patillo #44 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Bernard Blakey #88 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2.5 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
 Caleb Jones #21 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Dashawn Fields #6 | 3 | 2 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Cam Frazier #22 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Adrian Ramirez #3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
 James Monds III #1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
 Zach Chambers #11 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Ness Davis #32 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Ravon Johnson #0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Dallas Harper #5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Abdallah Daud #67 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jackson Farrell #54 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Isaiah Summerlin #19 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Daniel Tarabrella #21 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Sage Thomas #23 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jacob Stephens #93 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Deven Thomas #14 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jamari Buddin #10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Kevin O'Donnell #30 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Dominic Yanoshak #29 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
W Will Martin #38 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
 Kahini Austin #52 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Team | 63 | 39 | 2 | 9 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
Interceptions
| DUQ | INT | YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|
James Monds III #1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Kick returns
| DUQ | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cam Frazier #22 | 1 | 28 | 28.0 | 28 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | 28 | 28.0 | 28 | 0 |
Kicking
| DUQ | FG | PCT | LONG | XP | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Matt Clark #67 | 0/1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2/2 | 2 |
| Team | 0/1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2/2 | 2 |
Punting
| DUQ | NO | YDS | AVG | TB | In 20 | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Andrew Graham #81 | 5 | 186 | 37.2 | 0 | 1 | 47 |
| Team | 5 | 186 | 37.2 | 0 | 1 | 47 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| DUQ | STO | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Downs | 16 | 12 |
| 3rd down efficiency | 5-11 | 2-13 |
| 4th down efficiency | 0-0 | 2-4 |
| Total Yards | 313 | 258 |
| Passing | 243 | 173 |
| Comp/Att | 11/23 | 17/29 |
| Yards per pass | 10.6 | 6.0 |
| Rushing | 70 | 85 |
| Rushing Attempts | 32 | 33 |
| Yards per rush | 2.2 | 2.6 |
| Penalties | 2-30 | 5-67 |
| Turnovers | 3 | 1 |
| Fumbles lost | 2 | 0 |
| Interceptions thrown | 1 | 1 |
| Possession | 26:25 | 33:35 |
DUQ 20.10–26.31 STO
MissPlayer props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Duquesne vs Stonehill pick result · Oct 17, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 46.5, with a 54% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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