New Haven Chargers at Robert Morris Colonials
Final · ESPN+
Model: NH 20.20–27.62 RMU
How close was our sim?
Pre-game sim locked Oct 16, 5:51 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1726192720
- Winner: Robert Morris (68%)
- Spread: NH +10 covers (54%)
- Total: Over 46.5 (59%)
- Score error (both teams)19
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: NH vs RMU
The model
How this number was built
NH 20.20–27.62 RMU · Medium confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseRMU +0.0 off · NH -0.6 off, shrunk 55%
- Home field+3.0 pts to RMU
- RecordRMU 3-4 · NH 2-5
- Market priorBlended 68% toward RMU -9.5 / total 45.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NH | 3 | 3 | 14 | 6 | 26 |
| RMU | 0 | 7 | 0 | 8 | 15 |
How the points were scored
- FGQ1 7:313–0
Liam Quigley 21 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ2 14:553–7
Carson Haggard 1 Yd Run (Lucca Valens Kick)
- FGQ2 0:006–7
Liam Quigley 53 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ3 13:4513–7
Dante DiNuzzo 0 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Liam Quigley Kick)
- TDQ3 2:1120–7
Frank Daniley 12 Yd Run (Liam Quigley Kick)
- FGQ4 11:0123–7
Liam Quigley 47 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ4 7:3423–15
Jaqai Carter 55 Yd pass from Carson Haggard (Dillon Mohammed Pass to Noah Schaerli for Two-Point Conversion)
- FGQ4 1:3326–15
Liam Quigley 46 Yd Field Goal
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
Passing
| NH | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | adjQBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
J Jake Tripptree #16 | 3/4 | 44 | 11.0 | 0 | 0 | — |
N Niko Boyce #14 | 9/18 | 40 | 2.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Team | 12/22 | 84 | 3.8 | 0 | 0 | — |
Rushing
| NH | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Z Zaon Laney #2 | 18 | 75 | 4.2 | 0 | 35 |
 Frank Daniley #29 | 13 | 46 | 3.5 | 1 | 12 |
N Niko Boyce #14 | 6 | 28 | 4.7 | 0 | 23 |
S Shaun Jackson #28 | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 | 6 |
Team | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | 0 |
 Caleb Williams #6 | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 42 | 155 | 3.7 | 1 | 35 |
Receiving
| NH | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
J Jayden Turnage #20 | 1 | 22 | 22.0 | 0 | 22 |
M Matt Chandler #1 | 4 | 22 | 5.5 | 0 | 13 |
J Jonathan Lawson #7 | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 | 8 |
L LaSalle Rose Jr. #12 | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 | 13 |
 D'Arious Reed #85 | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 | 9 |
P Paris Pratt Jr. | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | 6 |
 Dominic Grguric #19 | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | 2 |
Z Zaon Laney #2 | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 12 | 84 | 7.0 | 0 | 22 |
Fumbles
| NH | FUM | LOST | REC |
|---|---|---|---|
M Myles Hansford #1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
J Joseph Sondah #90 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Team | 0 | 0 | 2 |
Defense
| NH | TOT | SOLO | SACKS | TFL | PD | QB HUR | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
R Ricky Encarnacion #13 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
I Irv Briggs #41 | 7 | 3 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
M Myles Hansford #1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
T Tyler Owens #96 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Chris Hudson #2 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
F Frederick Borkey #5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
J John Sualla Jr. #98 | 3 | 0 | 0.5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
T Tyler Hammel #97 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
D Dre Kirton #3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
 Kenny Seymour #40 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Brodie Williams #4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
P Panos Burlos #35 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
E Elijah Abass Shereef | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
P Pete Melle #18 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
J JT Krivinskas #22 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
K Kam Allen #43 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
M Mason Taylor #0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
 Chris Martin #34 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
L Lucas Theriaque #16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
D Dante DiNuzzo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Team | 48 | 24 | 4 | 9 | 13 | 5 | 1 |
Interceptions
| NH | INT | YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|
L Lucas Theriaque #16 | 1 | 25 | 0 |
M Myles Hansford #1 | 1 | 22 | 0 |
| Team | 2 | 47 | 0 |
Kick returns
| NH | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
D Dre Kirton #3 | 2 | 20 | 10.0 | 14 | 0 |
| Team | 2 | 20 | 10.0 | 14 | 0 |
Punt returns
| NH | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
L LaSalle Rose Jr. #12 | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 5 | 0 |
D Dante DiNuzzo | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
P Panos Burlos #35 | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 5 | 0 |
Kicking
| NH | FG | PCT | LONG | XP | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Liam Quigley #39 | 4/4 | 100.0 | 53 | 2/2 | 14 |
| Team | 4/4 | 100.0 | 53 | 2/2 | 14 |
Punting
| NH | NO | YDS | AVG | TB | In 20 | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
J Joe Fragale #37 | 5 | 153 | 30.6 | 0 | 1 | 55 |
| Team | 5 | 153 | 30.6 | 0 | 1 | 55 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| NH | RMU | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Downs | 15 | 15 |
| 3rd down efficiency | 4-15 | 4-14 |
| 4th down efficiency | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Total Yards | 239 | 251 |
| Passing | 84 | 246 |
| Comp/Att | 12/22 | 16/42 |
| Yards per pass | 3.8 | 5.9 |
| Rushing | 155 | 5 |
| Rushing Attempts | 42 | 21 |
| Yards per rush | 3.7 | 0.2 |
| Penalties | 9-71 | 4-35 |
| Turnovers | 0 | 4 |
| Fumbles lost | 0 | 2 |
| Interceptions thrown | 0 | 2 |
| Possession | 35:06 | 24:54 |
NH 20.20–27.62 RMU
HitPlayer props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
New Haven vs Robert Morris pick result · Oct 17, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is NH +10, with a 55% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAF picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day