Central Connecticut Blue Devils at Mercyhurst Lakers
Final · NEC Front Row
Model: CCSU 31.21–24.49 MERC
How close was our sim?
Pre-game sim locked Oct 16, 5:51 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1944595957
- Winner: C Connecticut (63%)
- Spread: MERC +7 covers (52%)
- Total: Under 53.5 (51%)
- Score error (both teams)30
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: CCSU vs MERC
The model
How this number was built
CCSU 31.21–24.49 MERC · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -8.4 vs -4.4 · model MERC 27.7–30.6 CCSU
- Home field+3.0 pts to MERC
- RecordMERC 1-6 · CCSU 3-3
- Market priorBlended 68% toward CCSU -8.5 / total 54.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CCSU | 7 | 7 | 15 | 14 | 43 |
| MERC | 11 | 7 | 7 | 15 | 40 |
How the points were scored
- TDQ1 12:330–8
Sha'lik Hampton 9 Yd pass from Alex Gevaudan (Emanuel Fincher Run for Two-Point Conversion)
- FGQ1 5:390–11
Rocco Marcantonio 38 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ1 0:527–11
Ryan Turley 1 Yd pass from Brett Griffis (Jack Hennessey Kick)
- TDQ2 12:227–18
Evan Van Dyke 52 Yd Run (Rocco Marcantonio Kick)
- TDQ2 3:0814–18
Isaac Stopke 17 Yd pass from Brett Griffis (Jack Hennessey Kick)
- TDQ3 9:3914–25
Amare Lattimore 33 Yd pass from Alex Gevaudan (Rocco Marcantonio Kick)
- TDQ3 9:2222–25
Davon Smith Jr. 36 Yd Run (Brett Griffis Pass to Gabriel Wiggins for Two-Point Conversion)
- TDQ3 5:4929–25
Davon Smith Jr. 2 Yd Run (Jack Hennessey Kick)
- TDQ4 13:5629–32
Amare Lattimore 27 Yd pass from Alex Gevaudan (Rocco Marcantonio Kick)
- TDQ4 8:2436–32
Isaac Stopke 1 Yd Run (Jack Hennessey Kick)
- TDQ4 3:4743–32
Davon Smith Jr. 1 Yd Run (Jack Hennessey Kick)
- TDQ4 1:5143–40
Dylan Evans 8 Yd pass from Alex Gevaudan (Alex Gevaudan Pass to Evan Van Dyke for Two-Point Conversion)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
Passing
| CCSU | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | adjQBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Brett Griffis #10 | 9/18 | 131 | 7.3 | 2 | 1 | — |
| Team | 9/18 | 131 | 7.3 | 2 | 1 | — |
Rushing
| CCSU | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Davon Smith Jr. #25 | 25 | 162 | 6.5 | 3 | 43 |
G Gabriel Wiggins #29 | 3 | 32 | 10.7 | 0 | 19 |
 Isaac Stopke #4 | 6 | 26 | 4.3 | 1 | 9 |
Brett Griffis #10 | 8 | 16 | 2.0 | 0 | 11 |
M Michael Trovarelli #5 | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 | 5 |
Team | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
 David Pardo #9 | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
 John Manning IV #21 | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 47 | 243 | 5.2 | 4 | 43 |
Receiving
| CCSU | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
M Michael Trovarelli #5 | 4 | 58 | 14.5 | 0 | 27 |
G Gabriel Wiggins #29 | 3 | 55 | 18.3 | 0 | 29 |
Isaac Stopke #4 | 1 | 17 | 17.0 | 1 | 17 |
 Ryan Turley #44 | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Team | 9 | 131 | 14.6 | 2 | 29 |
Fumbles
| CCSU | FUM | LOST | REC |
|---|---|---|---|
Team | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Isaac Stopke #4 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Davon Smith Jr. #25 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Defense
| CCSU | TOT | SOLO | SACKS | TFL | PD | QB HUR | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
D Deonte Douglas #38 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jacob Staton #23 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Daren Omoregie #0 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0.5 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
C Chris Jean #7 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
 Davion Jennings #6 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
 LaZaryus Toombs #5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Keith Moko #3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Wayne Coleman Jr. #1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 TJ Shittu #11 | 4 | 0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
J James Mankaka #28 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
J JJ Gibson #50 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Eric Jackson #2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Malachai Mapp #47 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Breon Askins #17 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Colby Bernier #93 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
J Javere Cannonier #90 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jaden Sasu #10 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Sharod Watkins #55 | 1 | 0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Mel Jacobs #12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Navon Mitchell #4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jaden Langford #37 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 69 | 25 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 0 |
Interceptions
| CCSU | INT | YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|
C Chris Jean #7 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
Keith Moko #3 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 2 | 17 | 0 |
Kick returns
| CCSU | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
G Gabriel Wiggins #29 | 3 | 95 | 31.7 | 40 | 0 |
 Donovan Wadley #0 | 1 | 19 | 19.0 | 19 | 0 |
| Team | 4 | 114 | 28.5 | 40 | 0 |
Kicking
| CCSU | FG | PCT | LONG | XP | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jack Hennessey #42 | 0/0 | 0.0 | 0 | 5/5 | 5 |
| Team | 0/0 | 0.0 | 0 | 5/5 | 5 |
Punting
| CCSU | NO | YDS | AVG | TB | In 20 | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
S Sammy Johnson #95 | 4 | 144 | 36.0 | 1 | 0 | 46 |
| Team | 4 | 144 | 36.0 | 1 | 0 | 46 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| CCSU | MERC | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Downs | 18 | 22 |
| 3rd down efficiency | 11-16 | 8-14 |
| 4th down efficiency | 0-0 | 0-3 |
| Total Yards | 374 | 491 |
| Passing | 131 | 409 |
| Comp/Att | 9/18 | 26/47 |
| Yards per pass | 7.3 | 8.7 |
| Rushing | 243 | 82 |
| Rushing Attempts | 47 | 24 |
| Yards per rush | 5.2 | 3.4 |
| Penalties | 5-27 | 3-25 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 2 |
| Fumbles lost | 0 | 0 |
| Interceptions thrown | 1 | 2 |
| Possession | 32:52 | 27:08 |
CCSU 31.21–24.49 MERC
HitPlayer props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
C Connecticut vs Mercyhurst pick result · Oct 17, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is MERC +7, with a 54% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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