NCAAFFinalRoy Stewart Stadium

Youngstown State Penguins at Murray State Racers

Final · ESPN+

62–35

Youngstown StMurray St

Final

Youngstown State Penguins

8-2

Final

Murray State Racers

1-9

YSU 94%MUR 6%

At lock: projected YSU 43.15–17.98 MUR

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 11:38 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1588929100

Winner called · off by 42

Most typical sim

YSU 29 – MUR 26

Final

YSU 62 – MUR 35

Winner: Youngstown St (60%)
Score error (both teams)42

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: YSU vs MUR

The model

How this number was built

YSU 43.15–17.98 MUR · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -7.0 vs -2.5 · model MUR 25.6–29.4 YSU
Home field
+3.0 pts to MUR
Record
MUR 1-9 · YSU 8-2
Market prior
Blended 80% toward YSU -31.5 / total 62.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
YSU	14	21	14	13	62
MUR	7	0	14	14	35

How the points were scored

TDQ1 6:417–0
Max Welter 10 Yd pass from Beau Brungard (Andrew Lastovka Kick)
TDQ1 4:537–7
Trey Firestone 10 Yd pass from Collin Shannon (Tyler Dorn Kick)
TDQ1 1:4114–7
Antuan Gardner 9 Yd Run (Andrew Lastovka Kick)
TDQ2 10:3421–7
Bryan Hunt 19 Yd pass from Beau Brungard (Andrew Lastovka Kick)
TDQ2 6:0228–7
Fresh Walters 28 Yd pass from Beau Brungard (Andrew Lastovka Kick)
TDQ2 0:2435–7
Lynn Wyche-El 28 Yd pass from Beau Brungard (Andrew Lastovka Kick)
TDQ3 10:3642–7
Antuan Gardner 2 Yd Run (Andrew Lastovka Kick)
TDQ3 6:1842–14
Malachi Williams 15 Yd pass from Collin Shannon (Tyler Dorn Kick)
TDQ3 4:1449–14
Jaden Gilbert 2 Yd Run (Andrew Lastovka Kick)
TDQ3 0:5449–21
Tyrell Campbell 5 Yd Run (Tyler Dorn Kick)
TDQ4 11:4356–21
Jaden Gilbert 1 Yd Run (Andrew Lastovka Kick)
TDQ4 7:5462–28
Fresh Walters 7 Yd pass from Malachi Lewis (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)
TDQ4 2:3656–28
Cade Fields 32 Yd Run (Tyler Dorn Kick)
TDQ4 0:0462–35
Dylan Embry 3 Yd pass from Collin Shannon (Tyler Dorn Kick)

Player stats

Full box — every player, every category.

Passing

YSU	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	adjQBR
Beau Brungard #12	31/34	423	12.4	4	—
Malachi Lewis #10	3/4	12	3.0	1	—
Team	34/38	435	11.4	5	—

Rushing

YSU	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Jaden Gilbert #7	7	42	6.0	2	17
Antuan Gardner #4	7	41	5.9	2	14
Beau Brungard #12	6	31	5.2	0	17
Tahir Mills #0	4	15	3.8	0	6
Malachi Lewis #10	1	10	10.0	0	10
Lynn Wyche-El #1	1	8	8.0	0	8
Fresh Walters #5	1	5	5.0	0	5
Da'Shaun Whatley #24	1	2	2.0	0	2
Team	1	0	0.0	0	0
Team	29	154	5.3	4	17

Receiving

YSU	REC	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Lynn Wyche-El #1	10	145	14.5	1	45
Fresh Walters #5	7	90	12.9	2	28
Jaden Gilbert #7	6	77	12.8	0	30
Jeremiah Sanders #6	3	34	11.3	0	17
Austin Bray #85	3	29	9.7	0	19
Dorian Williams #2	1	22	22.0	0	22
Bryan Hunt #8	1	19	19.0	1	19
Max Welter #82	1	10	10.0	1	10
Antuan Gardner #4	2	9	4.5	0	7
Team	34	435	12.8	5	45

Defense

YSU	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HUR
Weston Sturzinger #4	8	5	0	0	0	0
Roderick Owens Jr. #36	8	4	0	0.5	0	0
Lemondte Chambers #27	7	4	1	1.5	0	0
Brandon Chambers Jr. #19	6	3	0	0	1	0
Cam Smith #1	6	2	0	0	0	0
Dev Holman #22	5	3	0	0	1	0
Raleigh Collins III #7	3	2	0	0	0	0
Danny Nittoli #33	3	2	0	0	0	0
Aidan Fischer #17	3	2	0	0	0	0
Jussiah Williams-West #0	3	1	0	0	0	0
Caleb Taylor #2	3	1	0	0	0	0
Bryant Holland-Snowden #38	3	0	0	0	0	0
Baron White #12	2	2	0	0	1	0
Carston Marshall #5	2	0	0	0	0	2
AJ Snyder #49	1	1	1	1	0	1
Stanley Clyne #20	1	1	0	0	0	0
Maximillian Johnson #37	1	1	0	0	0	0
Michael Wright Jr. #45	1	1	0	1	0	0
Dante Gentile #32	1	1	0	1	0	0
Conlan Greene #90	1	0	0	0	1	1
Jordan Rudolph #10	1	0	0	0	0	0
Connor Johannesen #56	1	0	0	0	0	1
Andrew Jackson-Dunaway #48	1	0	0	0	0	0
Julius Jackson #6	1	0	0	0	0	0
Michael Wells #3	0	0	0	0	0	1
Jordan Pritchard-Sewell #9	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team	72	36	2	5	4	7

Kick returns

YSU	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG
T Ta'John Royster #28	1	26	26.0	26
Conlan Greene #90	1	9	9.0	9
Team	2	35	17.5	26

Kicking

YSU	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Andrew Lastovka #24	0/0	0.0	0	8/8	8
Team	0/0	0.0	0	8/8	8

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	YSU	MUR
1st Downs	31	33
3rd down efficiency	6-9	9-13
4th down efficiency	3-3	0-2
Total Yards	589	536
Passing	435	351
Comp/Att	34/38	23/39
Yards per pass	11.4	9.0
Rushing	154	185
Rushing Attempts	29	36
Yards per rush	5.3	5.1
Penalties	7-80	5-52
Turnovers	0	0
Fumbles lost	0	0
Interceptions thrown	0	0
Possession	30:16	29:44

Computer pick · SpreadStrong play

MUR +30.5

57%

At lock YSU 43.15–17.98 MUR · YSU by 25.2 pts vs MUR +30.5 · 57% is the confidence saved at lock

Hit

Players

Beau Brungard · YSU
31/34 C/ATT · 423 YDS
Collin Shannon · MUR
23/39 C/ATT · 351 YDS
Jaden Gilbert · YSU
7 CAR · 42 YDS
Tyrell Campbell · MUR
19 CAR · 142 YDS
Lynn Wyche-El · YSU
10 REC · 145 YDS
Jaxon Potter · MUR
6 REC · 115 YDS

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Youngstown St vs Murray St pick result · Nov 7, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is MUR +30.5, with a 57% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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