NCAAFFinalMemorial Stadium (Terre Haute, IN)

Southern Illinois Salukis at Indiana State Sycamores

Final · ESPN+

37–20

S IllinoisIndiana St

Final

Southern Illinois Salukis

5-5

Final

Indiana State Sycamores

2-8

SIU 58%INST 42%

At lock: projected SIU 29.73–26.45 INST

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 11:38 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3904387617

Missed · off by 18

Most typical sim

SIU 27 – INST 28

Final

SIU 37 – INST 20

Winner: Indiana St (52%)
Score error (both teams)18

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: SIU vs INST

The model

How this number was built

SIU 29.73–26.45 INST · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -4.1 vs -2.6 · model INST 28.2–27.2 SIU
Home field
+3.0 pts to INST
Record
INST 2-8 · SIU 5-5
Market prior
Blended 66% toward SIU -5.5 / total 56.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
SIU	7	10	14	6	37
INST	3	3	0	14	20

How the points were scored

FGQ1 10:430–3
Sebastian Lopez 34 Yd Field Goal
TDQ1 5:587–3
Kyle Thomas 57 Yd pass from DJ Williams (Weston Schofield Kick)
FGQ2 12:0110–3
Seth Adams 50 Yd Field Goal
TDQ2 7:5517–3
Kyle Thomas 18 Yd pass from DJ Williams (Weston Schofield Kick)
FGQ2 1:0817–6
Sebastian Lopez 41 Yd Field Goal
TDQ3 5:2424–6
Markell Quick 25 Yd pass from DJ Williams (Weston Schofield Kick)
TDQ3 2:2931–6
Kyle Thomas 7 Yd pass from DJ Williams (Weston Schofield Kick)
FGQ4 13:3334–6
Weston Schofield 22 Yd Field Goal
TDQ4 9:2434–13
Zechariah Prince 99 Yd Run (Sebastian Lopez Kick)
TDQ4 5:1534–20
Torey French 29 Yd pass from Brock Riddle (Sebastian Lopez Kick)
FGQ4 1:5537–20
Weston Schofield 23 Yd Field Goal

Player stats

Full box — every player, every category.

Passing

SIU	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	adjQBR
DJ Williams #1	16/29	211	7.3	4	—
Jake Curry #7	1/1	5	5.0	0	—
Team	17/30	216	7.2	4	—

Rushing

SIU	CAR	YDS	AVG	LONG
Quade Chatmon #26	13	82	6.3	22
Chandler Chapman #8	11	41	3.7	15
DJ Williams #1	9	17	1.9	6
Markell Quick #11	1	11	11.0	11
Kyle Thomas #6	1	9	9.0	9
L Lem Wash #24	4	8	2.0	4
Tae Marrero Jr. #10	1	6	6.0	6
Edward Robinson #4	5	5	1.0	3
ET Harris #16	1	-1	-1.0	0
Jake Curry #7	2	-2	-1.0	1
Team	48	176	3.7	22

Receiving

SIU	REC	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Kyle Thomas #6	7	114	16.3	3	57
Tae Marrero Jr. #10	3	46	15.3	0	28
Markell Quick #11	1	25	25.0	1	25
Traivon Dyson #14	2	10	5.0	0	5
Allen Middleton #5	1	7	7.0	0	7
Quade Chatmon #26	1	7	7.0	0	7
Karsen Konkel #87	1	4	4.0	0	4
Miles Marshall #47	1	3	3.0	0	3
Team	17	216	12.7	4	57

Fumbles

SIU	FUM	LOST	REC
Ryan Algrim #48	0	0	1
Team	0	0	1

Defense

SIU	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HUR
Chris Presto #6	7	4	0	0.5	0	0
Charles Whelpley #15	7	2	0	0	0	0
M Matthew McClelland #21	6	3	0	0	0	0
Andrew Behm #46	6	2	0	2	0	0
Vinny Pierre Jr. #4	3	2	0	0	1	0
Caillou Robinson #95	3	1	1	1	0	1
Ben Fiegel #45	3	1	0	0	0	0
Ibrahim Sanogo #9	3	1	0	1.5	0	1
Cameron Cason #8	3	1	0	0	0	0
Jace Clark #18	2	1	0	0.5	0	0
Lance Bassett #98	2	0	0	0.5	0	0
Nate Tronzo #90	2	0	0	1	0	0
Joshua Newkirk #28	1	1	0	0	0	0
Camron Miller #13	1	1	0	1	0	0
Alex Broshears #35	1	1	0	0	0	0
S Sebastian Vargas #17	1	0	0	0	0	0
Gavin Shepard #0	1	0	0	0	1	0
David Obadein #34	1	0	0	0	0	0
Gavin Tinch #96	1	0	0	0	0	0
S Sam Farmer #19	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team	55	21	1	8	2	2

Interceptions

SIU	INT	YDS	TD
M Matthew McClelland #21	1	0	0
S Sebastian Vargas #17	1	0	0
Team	2	0	0

Kick returns

SIU	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG	TD
Tae Marrero Jr. #10	3	81	27.0	48	0
Team	3	81	27.0	48	0

Punt returns

SIU	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG
Tae Marrero Jr. #10	3	106	35.3	51
Kyle Thomas #6	1	2	2.0	2
Team	4	108	27.0	51

Kicking

SIU	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Weston Schofield #97	2/2	100.0	23	4/4	10
Seth Adams #38	1/1	100.0	50	0/0	3
Team	3/3	100.0	50	4/4	13

Punting

SIU	NO	YDS	AVG	TB	In 20	LONG
E Elijah Gorman #92	6	262	43.7	0	4	60
Team	6	262	43.7	0	4	60

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	SIU	INST
1st Downs	18	10
3rd down efficiency	7-20	2-13
4th down efficiency	2-4	0-0
Total Yards	392	282
Passing	216	145
Comp/Att	17/30	16/24
Yards per pass	7.2	6.0
Rushing	176	137
Rushing Attempts	48	25
Yards per rush	3.7	5.5
Penalties	4-41	6-25
Turnovers	0	3
Fumbles lost	0	1
Interceptions thrown	0	2
Possession	36:00	24:00

Computer pick · Spread

INST +5.5

53%

At lock SIU 29.73–26.45 INST · SIU by 3.3 pts vs INST +5.5 · 53% is the confidence saved at lock

Miss

Players

DJ Williams · SIU
16/29 C/ATT · 211 YDS
Brock Riddle · INST
3/4 C/ATT · 65 YDS
Quade Chatmon · SIU
13 CAR · 82 YDS
Zechariah Prince · INST
6 CAR · 119 YDS
Kyle Thomas · SIU
7 REC · 114 YDS
Jayden Reed · INST
4 REC · 66 YDS

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

S Illinois vs Indiana St pick result · Nov 7, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is INST +5.5, with a 53% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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