Illinois State Redbirds at North Dakota Fighting Hawks
Final · ESPN+
21–49
At lock: projected ILST 23.78–29.05 UND
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 11:38 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1454413958
- Winner: North Dakota (58%)
- Score error (both teams)25
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: ILST vs UND
The model
How this number was built
ILST 23.78–29.05 UND · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -1.4 vs -1.1 · model UND 28.0–25.2 ILST
- Home field+3.0 pts to UND
- RecordUND 7-4 · ILST 7-3
- Market priorBlended 66% toward UND -6.5 / total 52.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ILST | 14 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 21 |
| UND | 14 | 21 | 7 | 7 | 49 |
How the points were scored
- TDQ1 10:410–7
Tray Kuntz 2 Yd pass from Jerry Kaminski (Kenten Laughman Kick)
- TDQ1 8:237–7
Mar'Quan Gary 31 Yd pass from Beckham Pellant (Michael Cosentino Kick)
- TDQ1 4:557–14
Javance Tupou'ata-Johnson 3 Yd Run (Kenten Laughman Kick)
- TDQ1 0:5814–14
Victor Dawson 4 Yd Run (Michael Cosentino Kick)
- TDQ2 12:5914–21
Korey Tai 7 Yd pass from Jerry Kaminski (Kenten Laughman Kick)
- TDQ2 9:2714–28
Mason South 2 Yd pass from Jerry Kaminski (Kenten Laughman Kick)
- TDQ2 7:5114–35
Deng Deng 8 Yd pass from Jerry Kaminski (Kenten Laughman Kick)
- TDQ3 13:1614–42
Jerry Kaminski 1 Yd Run (Kenten Laughman Kick)
- TDQ4 12:3821–42
Nick True 5 Yd pass from Beckham Pellant (Michael Cosentino Kick)
- TDQ4 5:1221–49
Deng Deng 19 Yd pass from Jerry Kaminski (Kenten Laughman Kick)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
Passing
| ILST | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | adjQBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Beckham Pellant #8 | 24/42 | 239 | 5.7 | 2 | 0 | — |
 Chase Kwiatkowski #15 | 0/1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Team | 24/43 | 239 | 5.6 | 2 | 0 | — |
Rushing
| ILST | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Seth Glatz #2 | 10 | 48 | 4.8 | 0 | 12 |
 Victor Dawson #5 | 12 | 42 | 3.5 | 1 | 16 |
Beckham Pellant #8 | 7 | -21 | -3.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Team | 29 | 69 | 2.4 | 1 | 16 |
Receiving
| ILST | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Mar'Quan Gary #3 | 6 | 101 | 16.8 | 1 | 37 |
 Dylan Lord #4 | 4 | 60 | 15.0 | 0 | 39 |
Victor Dawson #5 | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 0 | 15 |
Seth Glatz #2 | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 | 7 |
 Ethan Loss #19 | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 | 7 |
 Max Ziebarth #11 | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 | 6 |
Chase Kwiatkowski #15 | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 | 9 |
 Stevan Gavric #18 | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 | 9 |
 Nick True #7 | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 1 | 5 |
| Team | 24 | 239 | 10.0 | 2 | 39 |
Fumbles
| ILST | FUM | LOST | REC |
|---|---|---|---|
Victor Dawson #5 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Ethan Loss #19 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Team | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Nio Espinoza #22 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Team | 3 | 2 | 1 |
Defense
| ILST | TOT | SOLO | SACKS | TFL | PD | QB HUR | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tye Niekamp #46 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Mason Kaplan #14 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Doreon Dubose #8 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Wyatt Mueller #32 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jordan Coleman #3 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Dexter Niekamp #44 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Rylan Crawford #9 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Key Crowell #10 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Wyatt Boals #51 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Nio Espinoza #22 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Ben Harman #91 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Evan Sierra #18 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Valentino Garcia #76 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Dereon Crowe #0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Travis Jones #92 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Logan Jellison #98 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Kaden Lehew #21 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Ben Cooper #38 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 56 | 34 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Kick returns
| ILST | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Chris Taylor #28 | 4 | 111 | 27.8 | 57 | 0 |
| Team | 4 | 111 | 27.8 | 57 | 0 |
Kicking
| ILST | FG | PCT | LONG | XP | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Michael Cosentino #80 | 0/0 | 0.0 | 0 | 3/3 | 3 |
| Team | 0/0 | 0.0 | 0 | 3/3 | 3 |
Punting
| ILST | NO | YDS | AVG | TB | In 20 | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Hayden Futch #41 | 5 | 145 | 29.0 | 0 | 3 | 51 |
| Team | 5 | 145 | 29.0 | 0 | 3 | 51 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| ILST | UND | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Downs | 19 | 23 |
| 3rd down efficiency | 5-13 | 3-11 |
| 4th down efficiency | 1-4 | 3-3 |
| Total Yards | 308 | 437 |
| Passing | 239 | 293 |
| Comp/Att | 24/43 | 18/27 |
| Yards per pass | 5.6 | 10.9 |
| Rushing | 69 | 144 |
| Rushing Attempts | 29 | 38 |
| Yards per rush | 2.4 | 3.8 |
| Penalties | 9-85 | 10-82 |
| Turnovers | 2 | 1 |
| Fumbles lost | 2 | 1 |
| Interceptions thrown | 0 | 0 |
| Possession | 29:48 | 30:12 |
At lock ILST 23.78–29.05 UND · UND by 5.3 pts vs ILST +6.5 · 51% is the confidence saved at lock
MissBeckham Pellant · ILST
24/42 C/ATT · 239 YDSJerry Kaminski · UND
18/27 C/ATT · 293 YDSSeth Glatz · ILST
10 CAR · 48 YDSCharles Langama · UND
9 CAR · 63 YDSMar'Quan Gary · ILST
6 REC · 101 YDSHunter Kallstrom · UND
2 REC · 91 YDS
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Illinois St vs North Dakota pick result · Nov 7, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is ILST +6.5, with a 51% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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