Merrimack Warriors at Dartmouth Big Green
Final · ESPN+
Model: MRMK 18.34–27.54 DART
How close was our sim?
Pre-game sim locked Oct 16, 5:51 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1539287791
- Winner: Dartmouth (69%)
- Spread: MRMK +10 covers (54%)
- Total: Over 47.5 (57%)
- Score error (both teams)2
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: MRMK vs DART
The model
How this number was built
MRMK 18.34–27.54 DART · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseDART -0.4 off · MRMK -0.3 off, shrunk 44%
- Home field+3.0 pts to DART
- RecordDART 2-3 · MRMK 2-5
- Market priorBlended 83% toward DART -10.5 / total 44.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MRMK | 8 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 21 |
| DART | 7 | 0 | 7 | 13 | 27 |
How the points were scored
- TDQ1 10:050–7
Grayson Saunier 2 Yd Run (Owen Zalc Kick)
- TDQ1 0:588–7
AJ Hairston Jr 5 Yd Run (Mike Ryan Run for Two-Point Conversion)
- TDQ2 8:0714–7
DeMarcus McElroy 2 Yd Run (Nick Araujo PAT failed)
- TDQ3 3:4214–14
Noah Trigueros 1 Yd Run (Owen Zalc Kick)
- TDQ3 0:0621–14
Matthias Latham 15 Yd Run (Nick Araujo Kick)
- TDQ4 14:1021–21
James Elliott 59 Yd pass from Noah Trigueros (Owen Zalc Kick)
- FGQ4 8:4721–24
Owen Zalc 50 Yd Field Goal
- FGQ4 7:0921–27
Owen Zalc 42 Yd Field Goal
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
Passing
| MRMK | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | adjQBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 AJ Hairston Jr #8 | 16/27 | 174 | 6.4 | 0 | 2 | — |
| Team | 16/27 | 174 | 6.4 | 0 | 2 | — |
Rushing
| MRMK | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
M Matthias Latham #34 | 19 | 96 | 5.1 | 1 | 16 |
AJ Hairston Jr #8 | 13 | 47 | 3.6 | 1 | 16 |
 DeMarcus McElroy #6 | 5 | 22 | 4.4 | 1 | 6 |
G Galamama Mulbah #0 | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 | 8 |
| Team | 41 | 179 | 4.4 | 3 | 16 |
Receiving
| MRMK | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
A Austin Palmer #5 | 3 | 49 | 16.3 | 0 | 27 |
S Stephon Patrick #10 | 4 | 35 | 8.8 | 0 | 11 |
 Kenyon Massey #1 | 3 | 32 | 10.7 | 0 | 12 |
 Ethan Crite #11 | 2 | 18 | 9.0 | 0 | 15 |
M Matthias Latham #34 | 2 | 18 | 9.0 | 0 | 10 |
C Cooper Lehman #2 | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 | 12 |
DeMarcus McElroy #6 | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 | 10 |
| Team | 16 | 174 | 10.9 | 0 | 27 |
Fumbles
| MRMK | FUM | LOST | REC |
|---|---|---|---|
AJ Hairston Jr #8 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Defense
| MRMK | TOT | SOLO | SACKS | TFL | PD | QB HUR | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
D Danny Simms #7 | 12 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
W Will Claude #15 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 2.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
R Rajahn Cooper #5 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
M Markeith Hogan #11 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
J Jerrium Berry Jr #13 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
L Logan Graham #46 | 4 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
D Dwayne Green Jr #8 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
J Juice Ricks #4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
B Bryce Gentry-Warrick #6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
B Bryce Ricks #90 | 3 | 0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Micah Green #17 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
X Xavier Maple #14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
M Makai Young #43 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Guytano Bartolomeo #97 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
C Corday Bethel #21 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
T Trent Taylor #33 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
J Justyce Hathaway #16 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
J Justin Wallace #12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
D Darrell Hamilton #94 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
K Kamden Wyatt #1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 66 | 26 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
Kick returns
| MRMK | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
M Michael Robinson #29 | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 15 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 15 | 0 |
Punt returns
| MRMK | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kenyon Massey #1 | 1 | 17 | 17.0 | 17 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | 17 | 17.0 | 17 | 0 |
Kicking
| MRMK | FG | PCT | LONG | XP | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
N Nick Araujo #51 | 0/0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1/2 | 1 |
| Team | 0/0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1/2 | 1 |
Punting
| MRMK | NO | YDS | AVG | TB | In 20 | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
M Mike Ryan #83 | 5 | 209 | 41.8 | 1 | 2 | 47 |
| Team | 5 | 209 | 41.8 | 1 | 2 | 47 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| MRMK | DART | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Downs | 21 | 12 |
| 3rd down efficiency | 5-12 | 6-14 |
| 4th down efficiency | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Total Yards | 353 | 293 |
| Passing | 174 | 141 |
| Comp/Att | 16/27 | 12/21 |
| Yards per pass | 6.4 | 6.7 |
| Rushing | 179 | 152 |
| Rushing Attempts | 41 | 35 |
| Yards per rush | 4.4 | 4.3 |
| Penalties | 3-33 | 3-31 |
| Turnovers | 3 | 0 |
| Fumbles lost | 1 | 0 |
| Interceptions thrown | 2 | 0 |
| Possession | 33:49 | 26:11 |
MRMK 18.34–27.54 DART
HitPlayer props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Merrimack vs Dartmouth pick result · Oct 17, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is MRMK +11.5, with a 54% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAF picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day