NCAAFFinalYale Bowl

Brown Bears at Yale Bulldogs

Final · ESPN+

24–20

BrownYale

Final

Brown Bears

5-3

Final

Yale Bulldogs

4-4

BRWN 36%YALE 64%

At lock: projected BRWN 20.45–26.13 YALE

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 11:38 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3971645188

Missed · off by 11

Most typical sim

BRWN 26 – YALE 29

Final

BRWN 24 – YALE 20

Winner: Yale (58%)
Score error (both teams)11

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: BRWN vs YALE

The model

How this number was built

BRWN 20.45–26.13 YALE · Medium confidence

Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.

Attack / defense
YALE +0.1 off · BRWN +0.1 off, shrunk 58%
Home field
+3.0 pts to YALE
Record
YALE 4-4 · BRWN 5-3
Market prior
Blended 67% toward YALE -7 / total 46.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
BRWN	7	10	0	7	24
YALE	7	7	6	0	20

How the points were scored

TDQ1 8:590–7
Jaxton Santiago 3 Yd pass from Dante Reno (Noah Piper Kick)
TDQ1 1:027–7
Najih Rahman 16 Yd pass from James Murphy (Drew Crabtree Kick)
TDQ2 8:167–14
Billy Eastep 49 Yd Interception Return (Noah Piper Kick)
TDQ2 7:2914–14
Trevor Foley 73 Yd pass from James Murphy (Drew Crabtree Kick)
FGQ2 1:4017–14
Drew Crabtree 35 Yd Field Goal
FGQ3 8:0717–17
Noah Piper 41 Yd Field Goal
FGQ3 0:1017–20
Noah Piper 44 Yd Field Goal
TDQ4 11:3124–20
Pearson Hill 16 Yd pass from James Murphy (Drew Crabtree Kick)

Player stats

Full box — every player, every category.

Passing

BRWN	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	adjQBR
James Murphy #15	22/28	273	9.8	3	1	—
Team	22/28	273	9.8	3	1	—

Rushing

BRWN	CAR	YDS	AVG	LONG
Qwentin Brown #1	5	30	6.0	13
Matt Childs #2	9	30	3.3	10
Jackson Bennett #3	2	8	4.0	5
Team	2	0	0.0	0
James Murphy #15	9	-15	-1.7	7
Team	27	53	2.0	13

Receiving

BRWN	REC	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Trevor Foley #84	2	114	57.0	1	73
Pearson Hill #16	4	51	12.8	1	21
Saphir Miller #80	5	45	9.0	0	16
Levi Linowes #86	3	21	7.0	0	15
Carson Hill #19	1	20	20.0	0	20
Qwentin Brown #1	1	13	13.0	0	13
Najih Rahman #4	2	12	6.0	1	16
Jackson Bennett #3	1	1	1.0	0	1
Matt Childs #2	3	-4	-1.3	0	0
Team	22	273	12.4	3	73

Fumbles

BRWN	FUM	LOST	REC
Team	1	0	0
Team	1	0	0

Defense

BRWN	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HUR
Stefano Montella #32	18	4	0	0	0	0
Max Malo #10	15	2	0.5	0.5	0	0
Landon Heard #21	13	5	0	0	1	0
Ike Odimegwu #0	7	2	2	2	0	0
Brock Owen #6	7	2	0	0	0	0
Camryn Williams-Dalton #23	6	5	0	0	0	0
Liam Fitzgerald #94	6	1	0	0	0	0
Nathan Marsh #40	6	0	0	0.5	0	0
Kalyl Lindsey #7	5	2	0	0	0	0
Alejandro Bello #5	5	1	0	0	1	0
Jack Middleton #91	4	2	1	1	0	0
EJ Perez #50	4	0	0	0	0	0
Cap Davis #27	3	2	0	0	1	0
Jack Morse #55	3	2	0	0	0	0
Mason Baldic #96	3	0	0.5	0.5	0	1
Tommy Dunn #11	2	1	1	1.5	0	0
Michael Reddick #99	2	1	1	1	0	0
Jackson Bennett #3	2	1	0	0	0	0
Mitch Mooney #92	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team	111	33	6	7	3	2

Kicking

BRWN	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Drew Crabtree #37	1/1	100.0	35	3/3	6
Team	1/1	100.0	35	3/3	6

Punting

BRWN	NO	YDS	AVG	In 20	LONG
Malcolm Flynn #33	5	219	43.8	1	51
Team	1	3	3.0	0	3
Team	6	222	37.0	1	51

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	BRWN	YALE
1st Downs	16	22
3rd down efficiency	2-10	12-23
4th down efficiency	0-0	1-2
Total Yards	326	321
Passing	273	186
Comp/Att	22/28	25/40
Yards per pass	9.8	4.7
Rushing	53	135
Rushing Attempts	27	47
Yards per rush	2.0	2.9
Penalties	3-20	6-70
Turnovers	1	0
Fumbles lost	0	0
Interceptions thrown	1	0
Possession	24:10	35:50

Computer pick · Spread

BRWN +7

52%

At lock BRWN 20.45–26.13 YALE · YALE by 5.7 pts vs BRWN +7 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock

Hit

Players

James Murphy · BRWN
22/28 C/ATT · 273 YDS
Dante Reno · YALE
25/39 C/ATT · 186 YDS
Qwentin Brown · BRWN
5 CAR · 30 YDS
Hugo Djeumeni Kemeni · YALE
28 CAR · 124 YDS
Trevor Foley · BRWN
2 REC · 114 YDS
Jaxton Santiago · YALE
8 REC · 64 YDS

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Brown vs Yale pick result · Nov 7, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is BRWN +7, with a 52% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: NCAAF picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day