Brown Bears at Princeton Tigers
Final · ESPN+
Model: BRWN 19.90–23.61 PRIN
How close was our sim?
Pre-game sim locked Oct 16, 5:51 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3955014664
- Winner: Princeton (64%)
- Spread: BRWN +6.5 covers (52%)
- Total: Over 38.5 (71%)
- Score error (both teams)18
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: BRWN vs PRIN
The model
How this number was built
BRWN 19.90–23.61 PRIN · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defensePRIN +0.4 off · BRWN +0.0 off, shrunk 44%
- Home field+3.0 pts to PRIN
- RecordPRIN 4-1 · BRWN 2-3
- Market priorBlended 69% toward PRIN -4 / total 38.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BRWN | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 10 |
| PRIN | 10 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 16 |
How the points were scored
- TDQ1 13:200–7
Paul Kuhner 29 Yd pass from Wyatt Becker (Esteban Nunez Perez Kick)
- FGQ1 7:240–10
Esteban Nunez Perez 34 Yd Field Goal
- FGQ2 10:150–13
Esteban Nunez Perez 25 Yd Field Goal
- FGQ2 1:550–16
Esteban Nunez Perez 38 Yd Field Goal
- FGQ3 2:533–16
Drew Crabtree 21 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ4 1:0510–16
Levi Linowes 2 Yd pass from Matt Childs (Drew Crabtree Kick)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
Passing
| BRWN | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | adjQBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 James Murphy #15 | 31/50 | 274 | 5.5 | 0 | 0 | — |
 Pearson Hill #16 | 2/6 | 30 | 5.0 | 0 | 0 | — |
 Matt Childs #2 | 1/1 | 2 | 2.0 | 1 | 0 | — |
| Team | 34/57 | 306 | 5.4 | 1 | 0 | — |
Rushing
| BRWN | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Matt Childs #2 | 12 | 29 | 2.4 | 0 | 5 |
James Murphy #15 | 8 | 10 | 1.3 | 0 | 19 |
 Jackson Bennett #3 | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | 3 |
 Qwentin Brown #1 | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 2 |
 Eli Jones #21 | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
Team | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 27 | 44 | 1.6 | 0 | 19 |
Receiving
| BRWN | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Matt Childs #2 | 8 | 82 | 10.3 | 0 | 14 |
 Jadon Garza-Pender #88 | 6 | 51 | 8.5 | 0 | 14 |
 Levi Linowes #86 | 8 | 44 | 5.5 | 1 | 12 |
 Trevor Foley #84 | 2 | 44 | 22.0 | 0 | 27 |
Pearson Hill #16 | 2 | 27 | 13.5 | 0 | 19 |
 Saphir Miller #80 | 2 | 20 | 10.0 | 0 | 17 |
Eli Jones #21 | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 | 6 |
 Michael Nesbit #14 | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 | 7 |
 Carson Hill #19 | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 | 7 |
James Murphy #15 | 0 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Team | 34 | 306 | 9.0 | 1 | 27 |
Fumbles
| BRWN | FUM | LOST | REC |
|---|---|---|---|
James Murphy #15 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| Team | 3 | 2 | 0 |
Defense
| BRWN | TOT | SOLO | SACKS | TFL | PD | QB HUR | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Max Malo #10 | 14 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Stefano Montella #32 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Liam Fitzgerald #94 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Landon Heard #21 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Cap Davis #27 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 EJ Perez #50 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Camryn Williams-Dalton #23 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
 Alejandro Bello #5 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jack Middleton #91 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Kalyl Lindsey #7 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Ike Odimegwu #0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Mason Baldic #96 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Brock Owen #6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Nathan Marsh #40 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Tommy Dunn #11 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Michael Reddick #99 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Saphir Miller #80 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jeff Bandy #26 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Michael Pedrotti #49 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Airiz Coleman Bey #29 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jack Morse #55 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 81 | 31 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
Interceptions
| BRWN | INT | YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|
Kalyl Lindsey #7 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Kicking
| BRWN | FG | PCT | LONG | XP | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Drew Crabtree #37 | 1/1 | 100.0 | 21 | 1/1 | 4 |
| Team | 1/1 | 100.0 | 21 | 1/1 | 4 |
Punting
| BRWN | NO | YDS | AVG | TB | In 20 | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Malcolm Flynn #33 | 4 | 157 | 39.3 | 0 | 0 | 46 |
| Team | 4 | 157 | 39.3 | 0 | 0 | 46 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| BRWN | PRIN | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Downs | 24 | 20 |
| 3rd down efficiency | 9-19 | 10-19 |
| 4th down efficiency | 1-4 | 0-1 |
| Total Yards | 350 | 372 |
| Passing | 306 | 255 |
| Comp/Att | 34/57 | 20/34 |
| Yards per pass | 5.4 | 7.5 |
| Rushing | 44 | 117 |
| Rushing Attempts | 27 | 38 |
| Yards per rush | 1.6 | 3.1 |
| Penalties | 6-50 | 7-80 |
| Turnovers | 2 | 1 |
| Fumbles lost | 2 | 0 |
| Interceptions thrown | 0 | 1 |
| Possession | 29:20 | 30:40 |
BRWN 19.90–23.61 PRIN
MissPlayer props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Brown vs Princeton pick result · Oct 17, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 37.5, with a 61% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAF picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day