North Carolina A&T Aggies at Monmouth Hawks
Final · FloSports
17–21
At lock: projected NCAT 19.38–37.37 MONM
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 11:38 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1226619177
- Winner: Monmouth (69%)
- Score error (both teams)20
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: NCAT vs MONM
The model
How this number was built
NCAT 19.38–37.37 MONM · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -2.3 vs -5.3 · model MONM 32.7–24.7 NCAT
- Home field+3.0 pts to MONM
- RecordMONM 8-2 · NCAT 4-6
- Market priorBlended 80% toward MONM -20.5 / total 56.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NCAT | 7 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 17 |
| MONM | 14 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 21 |
How the points were scored
- TDQ1 11:040–7
Nazir Treadwell 2 Yd Run (Sky Sholder Kick)
- TDQ1 5:280–14
Frankie Weaver 4 Yd pass from Tra Neal (Sky Sholder Kick)
- TDQ1 3:147–14
Nebanye Moore 29 Yd pass from Kevin White (Asher Holland Kick)
- FGQ2 6:4610–14
Asher Holland 22 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ2 1:4817–14
Michael Carlock-Williams 20 Yd pass from Kevin White (Asher Holland Kick)
- TDQ2 1:1117–21
Christian Harrison 47 Yd pass from Frankie Weaver (Sky Sholder Kick)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
Passing
| NCAT | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | adjQBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kevin White #0 | 13/29 | 236 | 8.1 | 2 | 0 | — |
 J.T. Smith #1 | 1/1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Team | 14/30 | 241 | 8.0 | 2 | 0 | — |
Rushing
| NCAT | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kevin White #0 | 17 | 52 | 3.1 | 0 | 38 |
J.T. Smith #1 | 9 | 35 | 3.9 | 0 | 9 |
 Shimique Blizzard #9 | 8 | 32 | 4.0 | 0 | 21 |
 Jayden Williams #44 | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | 2 |
T Ta'Qaire Bell #86 | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 36 | 117 | 3.3 | 0 | 38 |
Receiving
| NCAT | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jayvonne Dillard #5 | 2 | 66 | 33.0 | 0 | 60 |
J Jayden White #80 | 3 | 58 | 19.3 | 0 | 45 |
 Elijah Kennedy #88 | 4 | 43 | 10.8 | 0 | 25 |
 Nebanye Moore #10 | 1 | 29 | 29.0 | 1 | 29 |
 Michael Carlock-Williams #2 | 1 | 20 | 20.0 | 1 | 20 |
 Anthony Rucker #13 | 1 | 19 | 19.0 | 0 | 19 |
T Ta'Qaire Bell #86 | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | 4 |
Jayden Williams #44 | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Team | 14 | 241 | 17.2 | 2 | 60 |
Fumbles
| NCAT | FUM | LOST | REC |
|---|---|---|---|
Kevin White #0 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Team | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 3 | 1 | 0 |
Defense
| NCAT | TOT | SOLO | SACKS | TFL | PD | QB HUR | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
D Donavan Frederick #9 | 11 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
T Tyrek Brown #7 | 10 | 5 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
K Kamari Blankumsee #1 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 1.5 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Jonathan Kimbrough-Campbell #27 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
D DeAndre Nance #17 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
T Travon Dye #15 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Mitchell Etheridge III #37 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
D Dray Duncan #14 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Steven Davis II #2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Amondi James #97 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
F Fionn Day #26 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Nebanye Moore #10 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
R RJ Baker #41 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
A Asher Holland #31 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Cameren Dalrymple #23 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Kyle Carpenter #33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
E Eddie Conover #13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
J Jordan Muhanyi #59 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
C Cadricus Stanley #92 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 71 | 31 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
Kick returns
| NCAT | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Elijah Kennedy #88 | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 | 0 |
Punt returns
| NCAT | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Elijah Kennedy #88 | 3 | 21 | 7.0 | 15 | 0 |
| Team | 3 | 21 | 7.0 | 15 | 0 |
Kicking
| NCAT | FG | PCT | LONG | XP | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
A Asher Holland #31 | 1/1 | 100.0 | 22 | 2/2 | 5 |
| Team | 1/1 | 100.0 | 22 | 2/2 | 5 |
Punting
| NCAT | NO | YDS | AVG | TB | In 20 | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 DJ Page #46 | 8 | 387 | 48.4 | 3 | 4 | 56 |
| Team | 8 | 387 | 48.4 | 3 | 4 | 56 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| NCAT | MONM | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Downs | 16 | 18 |
| 3rd down efficiency | 4-15 | 7-17 |
| 4th down efficiency | 2-2 | 1-1 |
| Total Yards | 358 | 374 |
| Passing | 241 | 205 |
| Comp/Att | 14/30 | 15/30 |
| Yards per pass | 8.0 | 6.8 |
| Rushing | 117 | 169 |
| Rushing Attempts | 36 | 41 |
| Yards per rush | 3.3 | 4.1 |
| Penalties | 4-39 | 4-45 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 0 |
| Fumbles lost | 1 | 0 |
| Interceptions thrown | 0 | 0 |
| Possession | 30:12 | 29:48 |
At lock NCAT 19.38–37.37 MONM · MONM by 18.0 pts vs NCAT +20.5 · 53% is the confidence saved at lock
HitKevin White · NCAT
13/29 C/ATT · 236 YDSFrankie Weaver · MONM
14/29 C/ATT · 201 YDSElijah Jennings · MONM
19 CAR · 115 YDSJayvonne Dillard · NCAT
2 REC · 66 YDSChristian Harrison · MONM
2 REC · 61 YDSDonavan Frederick · NCAT
11 TOT · 5 SOLO
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
NC A&T vs Monmouth pick result · Nov 7, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is NCAT +20.5, with a 53% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAF picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day