Rhode Island Rams at Yale Bulldogs
Final · ESPN+
Model: URI 19.33–30.21 YALE
How close was our sim?
Pre-game sim locked Oct 16, 5:51 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3441559075
- Winner: Yale (77%)
- Spread: URI +14 covers (54%)
- Total: Over 50.5 (54%)
- Score error (both teams)30
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: URI vs YALE
The model
How this number was built
URI 19.33–30.21 YALE · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseYALE +0.4 off · URI +0.0 off, shrunk 44%
- Home field+3.0 pts to YALE
- RecordYALE 3-2 · URI 4-3
- Market priorBlended 83% toward YALE -12.5 / total 48.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| URI | 14 | 6 | 7 | 14 | 41 |
| YALE | 0 | 7 | 3 | 13 | 23 |
How the points were scored
- TDQ1 12:557–0
Jamall Mensah 58 Yd pass from Alex McClelland (Ty Groff Kick)
- TDQ1 7:2014–0
Marquis Buchanan 79 Yd pass from Alex McClelland (Ty Groff Kick)
- FGQ2 9:4717–0
Josh Hamel 48 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ2 5:0617–7
Hugo Djeumeni Kemeni 36 Yd Run (Noah Piper Kick)
- FGQ2 1:5020–7
Ty Groff 19 Yd Field Goal
- FGQ3 7:3820–10
Noah Piper 33 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ3 4:2827–10
Marquis Buchanan 37 Yd pass from Alex McClelland (Ty Groff Kick)
- TDQ4 11:3927–17
Graham Smith 8 Yd pass from Dante Reno (Noah Piper Kick)
- TDQ4 7:4434–17
Sean Byrd 35 Yd pass from Alex McClelland (Ty Groff Kick)
- TDQ4 4:2634–23
Jaxton Santiago 4 Yd pass from Dante Reno (Noah Piper PAT blocked)
- TDQ4 3:1941–23
Gabe Winowich 9 Yd Run (Ty Groff Kick)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
Passing
| URI | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | adjQBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Alex McClelland #15 | 11/16 | 285 | 17.8 | 4 | 0 | — |
| Team | 11/16 | 285 | 17.8 | 4 | 0 | — |
Rushing
| URI | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Alex McClelland #15 | 13 | 92 | 7.1 | 0 | 32 |
 Gabe Winowich #22 | 9 | 12 | 1.3 | 1 | 9 |
 Brendon Barrow #2 | 10 | 6 | 0.6 | 0 | 6 |
Team | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 34 | 110 | 3.2 | 1 | 32 |
Receiving
| URI | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Marquis Buchanan #1 | 7 | 193 | 27.6 | 2 | 79 |
 Jamall Mensah #9 | 1 | 58 | 58.0 | 1 | 58 |
 Sean Byrd #8 | 1 | 35 | 35.0 | 1 | 35 |
Brendon Barrow #2 | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
 Kevin Green Jr. #6 | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 11 | 285 | 25.9 | 4 | 79 |
Defense
| URI | TOT | SOLO | SACKS | TFL | PD | QB HUR | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Ethan McCann-Carter #35 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Andre DePina-Gray #8 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Moses Meus #7 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
 Rohan Davy #0 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Chaas McCoy #21 | 8 | 2 | 0.5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Case Mankins #97 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jermel Bynum #19 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Tyson Grimm #13 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Dane Picariello #16 | 6 | 0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 D.J. Cureton #4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Patrick Conserve #51 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Toddrick Brewton #15 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Gage Hinkley #55 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Marquese Avery #50 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Josh Hamel #46 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Tosin Akinsulire #92 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Mitchell Garner #11 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Trey Lubin #3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Antonio Morgan #31 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Sam Ofurie #33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Kareem Wilson Jr. #96 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 100 | 34 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
Interceptions
| URI | INT | YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|
Rohan Davy #0 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Kick returns
| URI | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Brendon Barrow #2 | 1 | 18 | 18.0 | 18 | 0 |
 Will Dixon #87 | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 2 | 18 | 9.0 | 18 | 0 |
Punt returns
| URI | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kevin Green Jr. #6 | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 2 | 0 |
Kicking
| URI | FG | PCT | LONG | XP | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Ty Groff #45 | 1/1 | 100.0 | 19 | 5/5 | 8 |
Josh Hamel #46 | 1/1 | 100.0 | 48 | 0/0 | 3 |
| Team | 2/2 | 100.0 | 48 | 5/5 | 11 |
Punting
| URI | NO | YDS | AVG | TB | In 20 | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Randy Leavitt #32 | 5 | 201 | 40.2 | 0 | 1 | 47 |
| Team | 5 | 201 | 40.2 | 0 | 1 | 47 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| URI | YALE | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Downs | 12 | 23 |
| 3rd down efficiency | 5-12 | 7-19 |
| 4th down efficiency | 0-0 | 3-6 |
| Total Yards | 395 | 391 |
| Passing | 285 | 105 |
| Comp/Att | 11/16 | 15/39 |
| Yards per pass | 17.8 | 2.7 |
| Rushing | 110 | 286 |
| Rushing Attempts | 34 | 49 |
| Yards per rush | 3.2 | 5.8 |
| Penalties | 6-38 | 5-36 |
| Turnovers | 0 | 1 |
| Fumbles lost | 0 | 0 |
| Interceptions thrown | 0 | 1 |
| Possession | 25:57 | 34:03 |
URI 19.33–30.21 YALE
HitPlayer props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Rhode Island vs Yale pick result · Oct 17, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is URI +10, with a 55% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAF picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day