Chicago State Cougars at North Carolina A&T Aggies
Final · FloSports
Model: CHST 19.18–34.82 NCAT
How close was our sim?
Pre-game sim locked Oct 16, 5:51 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3424781456
- Winner: NC A&T (81%)
- Spread: CHST +16.5 covers (56%)
- Total: Under 56.5 (52%)
- Score error (both teams)17
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: CHST vs NCAT
The model
How this number was built
CHST 19.18–34.82 NCAT · Medium confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseNCAT -0.4 off · CHST -0.6 off, shrunk 58%
- Home field+3.0 pts to NCAT
- RecordNCAT 3-5 · CHST 1-6
- Market priorBlended 82% toward NCAT -18.5 / total 54.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHST | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 12 |
| NCAT | 10 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 27 |
How the points were scored
- TDQ1 12:140–7
J.T. Smith 22 Yd pass from Kevin White (Asher Holland Kick)
- FGQ1 11:080–10
Asher Holland 42 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ2 6:350–17
Michael Carlock-Williams 25 Yd pass from Kevin White (Asher Holland Kick)
- TDQ2 0:430–24
Michael Carlock-Williams 21 Yd pass from Kevin White (Asher Holland Kick)
- FGQ3 1:560–27
Asher Holland 28 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ4 8:406–27
Tre' Hartwell 3 Yd pass from Ashton Pannell (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
- TDQ4 6:1812–27
Develle Barksdale 9 Yd pass from Ashton Pannell (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
Passing
| CHST | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | adjQBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
A Ashton Pannell #9 | 18/34 | 171 | 5.0 | 2 | 2 | — |
| Team | 18/34 | 171 | 5.0 | 2 | 2 | — |
Rushing
| CHST | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
M Michael Dabney Jr. #28 | 10 | 35 | 3.5 | 0 | 12 |
 Chris Edmonds #21 | 1 | 19 | 19.0 | 0 | 19 |
 Tre' Hartwell #0 | 8 | 15 | 1.9 | 0 | 6 |
C Calvin Lee #33 | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 3 |
A Ashton Pannell #9 | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 | 7 |
K Kaymen Coleman #12 | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 25 | 68 | 2.7 | 0 | 19 |
Receiving
| CHST | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
K Keyontae Gray | 5 | 65 | 13.0 | 0 | 28 |
A Arshawn Powell #7 | 6 | 57 | 9.5 | 0 | 22 |
D Develle Barksdale #3 | 3 | 24 | 8.0 | 1 | 11 |
 Tyshawn Dues #13 | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 | 13 |
C Calvin Lee #33 | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 | 11 |
Tre' Hartwell #0 | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 1 | 3 |
Chris Edmonds #21 | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 18 | 171 | 9.5 | 2 | 28 |
Fumbles
| CHST | FUM | LOST | REC |
|---|---|---|---|
T Tareq Council #2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Team | 1 | 1 | 0 |
M Michael Dabney Jr. #28 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
V Vernon Cole #25 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Team | 4 | 1 | 1 |
Defense
| CHST | TOT | SOLO | SACKS | TFL | PD | QB HUR | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Armani Itote #0 | 10 | 8 | 3 | 4.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Gio Divers #15 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
J Jah'Quii Roberts #23 | 5 | 3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
K Khalib Robinson #91 | 5 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Breylon Wyatt #5 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
A Adrian Bowers #17 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
D DeShaun Malone #20 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
T Tareq Council #2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
J Jayden Earley #14 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
D Demetris Bolton #93 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
G Gabriel Valeros #97 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Aquarius Winston #13 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
T Tehron Spencer #34 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
A Ashton Pannell #9 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
E Ethan Ridley #29 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
M Mark Pullman #44 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
J Jalen Arnold #36 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
A Anthony Spivey #92 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
L Lesroy Tittle #22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Team | 52 | 36 | 4 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 0 |
Interceptions
| CHST | INT | YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|
T Tareq Council #2 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Kick returns
| CHST | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
K Keyontae Gray | 2 | 49 | 24.5 | 31 | 0 |
K Kymari Gray #2 | 1 | 20 | 20.0 | 20 | 0 |
T Tareq Council #2 | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 8 | 0 |
Team | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 5 | 75 | 15.0 | 31 | 0 |
Punt returns
| CHST | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
T Tareq Council #2 | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 11 | 0 |
K Kymari Gray #2 | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 6 | 0 |
| Team | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 11 | 0 |
Punting
| CHST | NO | YDS | AVG | TB | In 20 | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
J Jordan Zimmerman #48 | 4 | 139 | 34.8 | 0 | 1 | 42 |
| Team | 4 | 139 | 34.8 | 0 | 1 | 42 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| CHST | NCAT | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Downs | 14 | 15 |
| 3rd down efficiency | 6-14 | 5-13 |
| 4th down efficiency | 0-3 | 0-0 |
| Total Yards | 239 | 286 |
| Passing | 171 | 199 |
| Comp/Att | 18/34 | 15/26 |
| Yards per pass | 5.0 | 7.7 |
| Rushing | 68 | 87 |
| Rushing Attempts | 25 | 32 |
| Yards per rush | 2.7 | 2.7 |
| Penalties | 3-25 | 14-83 |
| Turnovers | 3 | 2 |
| Fumbles lost | 1 | 1 |
| Interceptions thrown | 2 | 1 |
| Possession | 27:59 | 32:01 |
CHST 19.18–34.82 NCAT
MissPlayer props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Chicago St vs NC A&T pick result · Oct 17, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is CHST +13.5, with a 55% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAF picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day