Massachusetts Minutemen at Toledo Rockets
Final · CBSSN
0–24
At lock: projected MASS 17.76–34.50 TOL
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 10, 6:31 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2115030475
- Winner: Toledo (85%)
- Spread: TOL -14.5 covers (55%)
- Total: Over 52.5 (52%)
- Score error (both teams)29
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: MASS vs TOL
The model
How this number was built
MASS 17.76–34.50 TOL · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexTOL -3.1 vs MASS -16.6 · pred margin +15.6
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +7.7 vs -5.2 · model TOL 36.3–12.8 MASS
- Home field+3.0 pts to TOL
- RecordTOL 8-2 · MASS 5-5
- Market priorBlended 66% toward TOL -14 / total 52.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MASS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TOL | 7 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 24 |
How the points were scored
- TDQ1 4:200–7
Connor Walendzak 69 Yd Run (Reice Griffith Kick)
- FGQ2 12:590–10
Reice Griffith 27 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ2 10:320–17
Nicholas Thompson 62 Yd Interception Return (Reice Griffith Kick)
- TDQ2 1:510–24
Connor Walendzak 17 Yd pass from John Alan Richter (Reice Griffith Kick)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
Passing
| MASS | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | QBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Logan Inagawa #16 | 10/27 | 99 | 3.7 | 0 | 1 | 5.5 |
 William Watson III #5 | 2/4 | 22 | 5.5 | 0 | 0 | 19.9 |
| Team | 12/31 | 121 | 3.9 | 0 | 1 | -- |
Rushing
| MASS | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Logan Inagawa #16 | 10 | 40 | 4.0 | 0 | 18 |
 Curtis Kimmons IV #14 | 11 | 33 | 3.0 | 0 | 14 |
 Elijah Faulkner #23 | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 | 7 |
 Justin Williams-Thomas #6 | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 6 |
William Watson III #5 | 1 | -9 | -9.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 28 | 67 | 2.4 | 0 | 18 |
Receiving
| MASS | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Drew Alsup #85 | 2 | 35 | 17.5 | 0 | 19 |
 Reece Adkins #83 | 5 | 33 | 6.6 | 0 | 23 |
 Jabari Lewis #19 | 2 | 28 | 14.0 | 0 | 15 |
 Kai Owens #21 | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 | 13 |
 Max Dowling #11 | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 | 9 |
 Kezion Dia-Johnson #8 | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | 3 |
| Team | 12 | 121 | 10.1 | 0 | 23 |
Defense
| MASS | TOT | SOLO | SACKS | TFL | PD | QB HUR | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Timmy Hinspeter #44 | 12 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Kendall Bournes #3 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Tyler Martin #5 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Joshua Nobles #2 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 TJ Magee #7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Zeraun Daniel #38 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Zakar Morris #55 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Tim Passmore Jr. #90 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Andrew DePaepe #42 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Khari Bendolph #15 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Joshua Iseah #6 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Aubrey Melvin #10 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 CJ Amobi #26 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 William DePaepe #98 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 DD Snyder #1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Michael Robinson #8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Derek Morris #99 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jose Touron #14 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Colin Reynolds #94 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Raheim Sexil #13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jax Markovich #86 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 James Horton #56 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Justin Krueger #9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Kamarion Thomas #99 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Hollis Dirstine #95 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Team | 69 | 37 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Kick returns
| MASS | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TJ Magee #7 | 1 | 23 | 23.0 | 23 | 0 |
Kezion Dia-Johnson #8 | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 16 | 0 |
 Owen Anderson #87 | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 7 | 0 |
| Team | 3 | 46 | 15.3 | 23 | 0 |
Punt returns
| MASS | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Drew Alsup #85 | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
Punting
| MASS | NO | YDS | AVG | TB | In 20 | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Edward Phillipson #43 | 8 | 380 | 47.5 | 1 | 2 | 66 |
| Team | 8 | 380 | 47.5 | 1 | 2 | 66 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| MASS | TOL | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Downs | 10 | 17 |
| 3rd down efficiency | 3-15 | 7-15 |
| 4th down efficiency | 1-4 | 0-2 |
| Total Yards | 188 | 436 |
| Passing | 121 | 197 |
| Comp/Att | 12/31 | 13/22 |
| Yards per pass | 3.9 | 9.0 |
| Rushing | 67 | 239 |
| Rushing Attempts | 28 | 45 |
| Yards per rush | 2.4 | 5.3 |
| Penalties | 5-50 | 10-90 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 0 |
| Fumbles lost | 0 | 0 |
| Interceptions thrown | 1 | 0 |
| Possession | 25:27 | 34:33 |
Model projected MASS 17.76 – 34.50 TOL at lock · below the strong-play bar (edge +0.6%; strong needs +3%) · informational lean, not a recommended bet
Logan Inagawa · MASS
10/27 C/ATT · 99 YDSJohn Alan Richter · TOL
13/22 C/ATT · 197 YDSConnor Walendzak · TOL
14 CAR · 117 YDSDrew Alsup · MASS
2 REC · 35 YDSAdjatay Dabbs · TOL
7 REC · 144 YDSTimmy Hinspeter · MASS
12 TOT · 6 SOLO
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
UMass vs Toledo pick result · Nov 11, 2026
Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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