Sacramento State Hornets at Central Michigan Chippewas
Final · ESPNU
7–28
At lock: projected SAC 13.92–30.49 CMU
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 10, 6:31 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2098252856
- Winner: C Michigan (84%)
- Spread: SAC +18.5 covers (56%)
- Total: Over 43.5 (54%)
- Score error (both teams)10
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: SAC vs CMU
The model
How this number was built
SAC 13.92–30.49 CMU · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexCMU -11.8 vs SAC -29.2 · pred margin +17.9
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +0.6 vs -7.3 · model CMU 29.7–14.1 SAC
- Home field+3.0 pts to CMU
- RecordCMU 5-5 · SAC 2-9
- Market priorBlended 66% toward CMU -17.5 / total 41.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAC | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| CMU | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 28 |
How the points were scored
- TDQ1 11:110–7
Jayden Clerveaux 27 Yd Run (Caden VanHuis Kick)
- TDQ2 4:017–7
Isaiah Ene 37 Yd Run (Saul Marks Kick)
- TDQ2 0:197–14
Vaughn Blue 8 Yd Run (Caden VanHuis Kick)
- TDQ3 6:237–21
Brock Townsend 40 Yd Run (Caden VanHuis Kick)
- TDQ4 1:057–28
Brock Townsend 6 Yd Run (Caden VanHuis Kick)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
Passing
| SAC | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | QBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Brian Salazar Jr. #6 | 13/28 | 103 | 3.7 | 0 | 1 | 20.9 |
| Team | 13/28 | 103 | 3.7 | 0 | 1 | -- |
Rushing
| SAC | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Isaiah Ene #22 | 8 | 67 | 8.4 | 1 | 37 |
 Davion Godley #25 | 2 | 28 | 14.0 | 0 | 23 |
Brian Salazar Jr. #6 | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 | 9 |
D Daniel Swinney #0 | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 | 6 |
Team | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 17 | 108 | 6.4 | 1 | 37 |
Receiving
| SAC | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Onterrio Smith Jr. #12 | 4 | 47 | 11.8 | 0 | 25 |
 Raiden Brown #5 | 2 | 21 | 10.5 | 0 | 14 |
Isaiah Ene #22 | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 | 7 |
 Matt Coleman #2 | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 | 7 |
 Jace Wilson #10 | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | 5 |
 Elijah Huddle #85 | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 | 4 |
 Cincere Rhaney #3 | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | 4 |
| Team | 13 | 103 | 7.9 | 0 | 25 |
Fumbles
| SAC | FUM | LOST | REC |
|---|---|---|---|
 Miles Tucker #19 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Team | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Defense
| SAC | TOT | SOLO | SACKS | TFL | PD | QB HUR | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Leki Holani #16 | 14 | 4 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Boogsie Silvera #1 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Tim Thomas #26 | 9 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Miles Tucker #19 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Fata Puloka #18 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jamel Howard Jr. #58 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Noah King #27 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Donovan Turner #0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Amari Wallace #3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Malikai Nichols #12 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Austin Chambers #90 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Adam Taylor #21 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Malik Tullis #9 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Ivan Moore Jr. #11 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Miles Bailey #55 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Diesel Gordon #13 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Malachi Kindle #93 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Warren Smith Jr. #6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Alex Rocha #33 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Elijah Huddle #85 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Daniel Mataele #58 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Peyton McCutcheon #32 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Dante Antonini #4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Kaden Briggs #7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 96 | 32 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
Kick returns
| SAC | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Adam Taylor #21 | 2 | 26 | 13.0 | 15 | 0 |
Davion Godley #25 | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 11 | 0 |
 Cedric Anton #88 | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 4 | 37 | 9.3 | 15 | 0 |
Kicking
| SAC | FG | PCT | LONG | XP | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Saul Marks #9 | 0/0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1/1 | 1 |
| Team | 0/0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1/1 | 1 |
Punting
| SAC | NO | YDS | AVG | TB | In 20 | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Hamish Adams #37 | 5 | 236 | 47.2 | 1 | 2 | 62 |
| Team | 5 | 236 | 47.2 | 1 | 2 | 62 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| SAC | CMU | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Downs | 10 | 24 |
| 3rd down efficiency | 3-10 | 11-18 |
| 4th down efficiency | 1-2 | 3-4 |
| Total Yards | 211 | 424 |
| Passing | 103 | 105 |
| Comp/Att | 13/28 | 11/19 |
| Yards per pass | 3.7 | 5.5 |
| Rushing | 108 | 319 |
| Rushing Attempts | 17 | 56 |
| Yards per rush | 6.4 | 5.7 |
| Penalties | 4-32 | 2-20 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 1 |
| Fumbles lost | 0 | 1 |
| Interceptions thrown | 1 | 0 |
| Possession | 20:12 | 39:48 |
Model projected SAC 13.92 – 30.49 CMU at lock · below the strong-play bar (edge -0.6%; strong needs +3%) · informational lean, not a recommended bet
Brian Salazar Jr. · SAC
13/28 C/ATT · 103 YDSJadyn Glasser · CMU
11/19 C/ATT · 105 YDSIsaiah Ene · SAC
8 CAR · 67 YDSNick Woodford · CMU
23 CAR · 119 YDSOnterrio Smith Jr. · SAC
4 REC · 47 YDSNasir Williams · CMU
3 REC · 57 YDS
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Sacramento St vs C Michigan pick result · Nov 11, 2026
Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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