Ohio Bobcats at Miami (OH) RedHawks
Final · ESPN2
17–34
At lock: projected OHIO 25.40–24.13 M-OH
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 9, 7:21 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2131808094
- Winner: Ohio (53%)
- Spread: OHIO -1.5 covers (52%)
- Total: Over 48.5 (54%)
- Score error (both teams)19
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: OHIO vs M-OH
The model
How this number was built
OHIO 25.40–24.13 M-OH · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexM-OH -9.1 vs OHIO -9.8 · pred margin +0.2
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +2.2 vs +2.5 · model M-OH 27.3–24.5 OHIO
- Home field+3.0 pts to M-OH
- RecordM-OH 6-4 · OHIO 7-3
- Market priorBlended 66% toward OHIO -1.5 / total 47.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OHIO | 7 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 17 |
| M-OH | 0 | 7 | 7 | 20 | 34 |
How the points were scored
- TDQ1 10:057–0
Riley Neer 8 Yd pass from Nick Poulos (Brack Peacock Kick)
- TDQ2 13:4014–0
Duncan Brune 1 Yd Run (Brack Peacock Kick)
- FGQ2 7:2017–0
Brack Peacock 22 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ2 1:0217–7
Maleek Huggins 15 Yd pass from Scoop Smith (Brady Stidham Kick)
- TDQ3 6:5817–14
D'Shawntae Jones 1 Yd Run (Brady Stidham Kick)
- FGQ4 14:1617–17
Brady Stidham 36 Yd Field Goal
- FGQ4 3:5517–20
Brady Stidham 25 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ4 1:4517–27
D'Shawntae Jones 48 Yd Run (Brady Stidham Kick)
- TDQ4 1:2517–34
Amariyun Knighten 58 Yd Interception Return (Brady Stidham Kick)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
Passing
| OHIO | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | QBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Nick Poulos #8 | 20/39 | 193 | 4.9 | 1 | 1 | 15.4 |
 Levi Davis #7 | 3/3 | 36 | 12.0 | 0 | 0 | 51.1 |
 Magnus Haines #42 | 0/1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | -- |
| Team | 23/43 | 229 | 5.3 | 1 | 1 | -- |
Rushing
| OHIO | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Nick Poulos #8 | 17 | 68 | 4.0 | 0 | 17 |
 Duncan Brune #6 | 13 | 47 | 3.6 | 1 | 16 |
 Preston Bowman #2 | 1 | 19 | 19.0 | 0 | 19 |
Levi Davis #7 | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 | 15 |
 Irving Brown #24 | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 | 6 |
| Team | 37 | 152 | 4.1 | 1 | 19 |
Receiving
| OHIO | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Riley Neer #15 | 6 | 74 | 12.3 | 1 | 26 |
Preston Bowman #2 | 4 | 50 | 12.5 | 0 | 20 |
Duncan Brune #6 | 3 | 28 | 9.3 | 0 | 10 |
 Jake Furtney #33 | 3 | 28 | 9.3 | 0 | 12 |
 AJ Miller #84 | 5 | 28 | 5.6 | 0 | 10 |
 Dom Dorwart #3 | 2 | 21 | 10.5 | 0 | 16 |
| Team | 23 | 229 | 10.0 | 1 | 26 |
Fumbles
| OHIO | FUM | LOST | REC |
|---|---|---|---|
Nick Poulos #8 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
AJ Miller #84 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 DJ Walker #2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Team | 2 | 1 | 1 |
Defense
| OHIO | TOT | SOLO | SACKS | TFL | PD | QB HUR | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Michael Molnar #25 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
 Darren James-Hamilton #4 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Jack Fries #27 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
 Ty Neubert #99 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
DJ Walker #2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Evan Herrmann #11 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Kendall Bannister #20 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Barry Dillon #8 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Blake Guffey #37 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Ike Ackerman #14 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Tyler Gillison #9 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Miles Cremascoli #18 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Nehemiah Dukes #0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 KJ Sejour #5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Isaiah Street #51 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Derek Reagans #98 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Will Marzolf #15 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Nathan Hale #57 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Caleb Chamberlin #17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 62 | 32 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 0 |
Kick returns
| OHIO | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Darren James-Hamilton #4 | 2 | 33 | 16.5 | 19 | 0 |
AJ Miller #84 | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 3 | 29 | 9.7 | 19 | 0 |
Kicking
| OHIO | FG | PCT | LONG | XP | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Brack Peacock #43 | 1/1 | 100.0 | 22 | 2/2 | 5 |
| Team | 1/1 | 100.0 | 22 | 2/2 | 5 |
Punting
| OHIO | NO | YDS | AVG | TB | In 20 | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Magnus Haines #42 | 9 | 388 | 43.1 | 0 | 0 | 51 |
| Team | 9 | 388 | 43.1 | 0 | 0 | 51 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| OHIO | M-OH | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Downs | 21 | 15 |
| 3rd down efficiency | 3-17 | 3-14 |
| 4th down efficiency | 3-4 | 1-1 |
| Total Yards | 381 | 361 |
| Passing | 229 | 153 |
| Comp/Att | 23/43 | 10/25 |
| Yards per pass | 5.3 | 6.1 |
| Rushing | 152 | 208 |
| Rushing Attempts | 37 | 33 |
| Yards per rush | 4.1 | 6.3 |
| Penalties | 7-44 | 7-69 |
| Turnovers | 2 | 1 |
| Fumbles lost | 1 | 1 |
| Interceptions thrown | 1 | 0 |
| Possession | 35:31 | 24:29 |
At lock OHIO 25.40–24.13 M-OH · 1.0 pts over 48.5 · 50% is the confidence saved at lock
HitNick Poulos · OHIO
20/39 C/ATT · 193 YDSDrew Bellisari · M-OH
8/15 C/ATT · 99 YDSD'Shawntae Jones · M-OH
18 CAR · 115 YDSRiley Neer · OHIO
6 REC · 74 YDSMaleek Huggins · M-OH
3 REC · 61 YDSMichael Molnar · OHIO
8 TOT · 3 SOLO
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Ohio vs Miami OH pick result · Nov 10, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 48.5, with a 50% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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