Kent State Golden Flashes at Bowling Green Falcons
Final · ESPNU
28–33
At lock: projected KENT 19.11–26.15 BGSU
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 9, 6:24 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2148438618
- Winner: Bowling Green (67%)
- Spread: BGSU -6 covers (52% vs 46%, push 2%)
- Total: Under 45.5 (50%)
- Score error (both teams)16
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: KENT vs BGSU
The model
How this number was built
KENT 19.11–26.15 BGSU · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexBGSU -17.7 vs KENT -23.6 · pred margin +5.4
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -4.8 vs -8.6 · model BGSU 28.7–19.4 KENT
- Home field+3.0 pts to BGSU
- RecordBGSU 3-7 · KENT 3-7
- Market priorBlended 66% toward BGSU -3.5 / total 42.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KENT | 7 | 7 | 0 | 14 | 28 |
| BGSU | 7 | 10 | 10 | 6 | 33 |
How the points were scored
- TDQ1 10:270–7
Nakai Amachree 70 Yd pass from Austin Novosad (Travis Kenner Kick)
- TDQ1 6:007–7
Dru DeShields 9 Yd Run (Tommy Newcomb Kick)
- TDQ2 10:1014–7
Wayne Harris 39 Yd pass from Dru DeShields (Tommy Newcomb Kick)
- TDQ2 2:4514–14
Eli Jacon-Duffy 23 Yd pass from Austin Novosad (Travis Kenner Kick)
- FGQ2 0:0214–17
Travis Kenner 46 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ3 8:4914–24
Blane Cleaver 1 Yd pass from Austin Novosad (Travis Kenner Kick)
- FGQ3 2:5914–27
Travis Kenner 38 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ4 6:3721–27
Wayne Harris 13 Yd pass from Dru DeShields (Tommy Newcomb Kick)
- TDQ4 2:0028–27
Dru DeShields 25 Yd Run (Tommy Newcomb Kick)
- TDQ4 1:5128–33
Nakai Amachree 48 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
Passing
| KENT | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | QBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Dru DeShields #12 | 19/38 | 332 | 8.7 | 2 | 2 | 61.8 |
| Team | 19/38 | 332 | 8.7 | 2 | 2 | -- |
Rushing
| KENT | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Dru DeShields #12 | 12 | 35 | 2.9 | 2 | 27 |
 Mason King #0 | 7 | 24 | 3.4 | 0 | 9 |
 Brandon White #22 | 10 | 18 | 1.8 | 0 | 5 |
 Jakorion Caffey #5 | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | 4 |
 Hunter Hopperton #18 | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
 Brendyn Smith #85 | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 32 | 77 | 2.4 | 2 | 27 |
Receiving
| KENT | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Wayne Harris #6 | 8 | 143 | 17.9 | 2 | 41 |
 Da'Realyst Clark #8 | 5 | 107 | 21.4 | 0 | 41 |
 Ardell Banks #1 | 1 | 35 | 35.0 | 0 | 35 |
Brendyn Smith #85 | 2 | 19 | 9.5 | 0 | 15 |
Brandon White #22 | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 | 14 |
 Terik Mulder #89 | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 | 13 |
 Donovan Delaney Jr. #25 | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Team | 19 | 332 | 17.5 | 2 | 41 |
Fumbles
| KENT | FUM | LOST | REC |
|---|---|---|---|
Dru DeShields #12 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Defense
| KENT | TOT | SOLO | SACKS | TFL | PD | QB HUR | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Hayden Dawahare #10 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Trey Rubinstein #32 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jaihien Roy #33 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Norey Johnson #18 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Darian Blachewicz #0 | 5 | 3 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Rocco Nicholl #4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Josue Cordoba #8 | 5 | 0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Martell Buchanan #25 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Davion Pritchard #22 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 DJ Barnes #19 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Thomas Aden #5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Rafael Terrero Jr. #20 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Lionel Burns III #12 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Joel Cordoba #2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 BuddyRow Garrer #26 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Derrick Jackson III #3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Lennox Lemon #27 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 A'tiq Muhammad #1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Aiden Burgess #52 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Garrett Long #83 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 73 | 31 | 3 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Kick returns
| KENT | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Da'Realyst Clark #8 | 2 | 38 | 19.0 | 19 | 0 |
| Team | 2 | 38 | 19.0 | 19 | 0 |
Punt returns
| KENT | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Wayne Harris #6 | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
Kicking
| KENT | FG | PCT | LONG | XP | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tommy Newcomb #49 | 0/0 | 0.0 | 0 | 4/4 | 4 |
| Team | 0/0 | 0.0 | 0 | 4/4 | 4 |
Punting
| KENT | NO | YDS | AVG | TB | In 20 | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jake Stoeckel #97 | 6 | 248 | 41.3 | 0 | 0 | 45 |
| Team | 6 | 248 | 41.3 | 0 | 0 | 45 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| KENT | BGSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Downs | 20 | 15 |
| 3rd down efficiency | 5-17 | 6-14 |
| 4th down efficiency | 2-4 | 0-0 |
| Total Yards | 409 | 347 |
| Passing | 332 | 229 |
| Comp/Att | 19/38 | 15/25 |
| Yards per pass | 8.7 | 9.2 |
| Rushing | 77 | 118 |
| Rushing Attempts | 32 | 36 |
| Yards per rush | 2.4 | 3.3 |
| Penalties | 2-17 | 7-66 |
| Turnovers | 2 | 0 |
| Fumbles lost | 0 | 0 |
| Interceptions thrown | 2 | 0 |
| Possession | 30:36 | 29:24 |
At lock KENT 19.11–26.15 BGSU · BGSU by 7.0 pts vs BGSU -6 · 51% is the confidence saved at lock
MissDru DeShields · KENT
19/38 C/ATT · 332 YDSAustin Novosad · BGSU
15/25 C/ATT · 229 YDSNakai Amachree · BGSU
19 CAR · 110 YDSWayne Harris · KENT
8 REC · 143 YDSHayden Dawahare · KENT
9 TOT · 3 SOLODorian Pringle · BGSU
10 TOT · 3 SOLO
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Kent State vs Bowling Green pick result · Nov 10, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is BGSU -6, with a 51% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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