Toledo Rockets at Sacramento State Hornets
Final · CBSSN
20–17
At lock: projected TOL 38.64–14.37 SAC
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 3, 6:17 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1913551952
- Winner: Toledo (94%)
- Spread: SAC +25.5 covers (53%)
- Total: Over 52.5 (54%)
- Score error (both teams)21
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: TOL vs SAC
The model
How this number was built
TOL 38.64–14.37 SAC · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexSAC -29.2 vs TOL -3.1 · pred margin -24.4
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -7.3 vs +7.7 · model SAC 14.4–34.5 TOL
- Home field+3.0 pts to SAC
- RecordSAC 2-8 · TOL 7-2
- Market priorBlended 66% toward TOL -25.5 / total 52.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOL | 7 | 0 | 10 | 3 | 20 |
| SAC | 3 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 17 |
How the points were scored
- TDQ1 7:327–0
Anthony Simpson 18 Yd pass from John Alan Richter (Reice Griffith Kick)
- FGQ1 5:097–3
Grant Meadors 38 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ2 9:307–10
Matt Coleman 2 Yd pass from Jackson Sharman (Grant Meadors Kick)
- FGQ3 6:1810–10
Reice Griffith 34 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ3 1:2617–10
Autavius Ison 19 Yd Run (Reice Griffith Kick)
- FGQ4 7:5120–10
Reice Griffith 40 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ4 2:2020–17
Jamar Curtis 3 Yd Run (Saul Marks Kick)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
Passing
| TOL | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | QBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 John Alan Richter #6 | 9/17 | 60 | 3.5 | 1 | 1 | 3.4 |
| Team | 9/17 | 60 | 3.5 | 1 | 1 | -- |
Rushing
| TOL | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 CJ Miller #22 | 27 | 135 | 5.0 | 0 | 20 |
 Autavius Ison #4 | 15 | 101 | 6.7 | 1 | 19 |
Team | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | 0 |
John Alan Richter #6 | 6 | -5 | -0.8 | 0 | 4 |
| Team | 49 | 230 | 4.7 | 1 | 20 |
Receiving
| TOL | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Anthony Simpson #85 | 1 | 18 | 18.0 | 1 | 18 |
 Bryson Hammer #12 | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 0 | 19 |
 Jacob Newell #88 | 5 | 16 | 3.2 | 0 | 8 |
 Daryl Barnett Jr. #19 | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 | 9 |
| Team | 9 | 60 | 6.7 | 1 | 19 |
Fumbles
| TOL | FUM | LOST | REC |
|---|---|---|---|
 Nathaniel Chandler #96 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Team | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Defense
| TOL | TOT | SOLO | SACKS | TFL | PD | QB HUR | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Isaac Zay #44 | 11 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Julian Fox #10 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Nicholas Thompson #22 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Nathaniel Chandler #96 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Kaleb Hutchinson #17 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Andrew Zock #0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Tyrell Russell #25 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Donovan Watkins #4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Israel Petite #23 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0.5 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
 Zach Johnson #90 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Wayne Peart II #95 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Isaac Prince #19 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Caden Camese #99 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Lucas Lambert-Pipkin #52 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Armorion Smith #7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Ezra Odinjor #2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Autavius Ison #4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Hayden Roy #30 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Max Allen #49 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jordan Fox #29 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 57 | 39 | 5 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Kick returns
| TOL | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bryson Hammer #12 | 1 | 32 | 32.0 | 32 | 0 |
 Ben Sahakian #21 | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 8 | 0 |
| Team | 3 | 40 | 13.3 | 32 | 0 |
Kicking
| TOL | FG | PCT | LONG | XP | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Reice Griffith #93 | 2/2 | 100.0 | 40 | 2/2 | 8 |
| Team | 2/2 | 100.0 | 40 | 2/2 | 8 |
Punting
| TOL | NO | YDS | AVG | TB | In 20 | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Markus Meincke #47 | 6 | 269 | 44.8 | 0 | 4 | 62 |
| Team | 6 | 269 | 44.8 | 0 | 4 | 62 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| TOL | SAC | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Downs | 17 | 12 |
| 3rd down efficiency | 5-15 | 4-15 |
| 4th down efficiency | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Total Yards | 290 | 224 |
| Passing | 60 | 216 |
| Comp/Att | 9/17 | 20/33 |
| Yards per pass | 3.5 | 6.5 |
| Rushing | 230 | 8 |
| Rushing Attempts | 49 | 31 |
| Yards per rush | 4.7 | 0.3 |
| Penalties | 5-35 | 5-40 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 1 |
| Fumbles lost | 0 | 1 |
| Interceptions thrown | 1 | 0 |
| Possession | 29:35 | 30:25 |
At lock TOL 38.64–14.37 SAC · TOL by 24.3 pts vs SAC +25.5 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock
HitJohn Alan Richter · TOL
9/17 C/ATT · 60 YDSJackson Sharman · SAC
8/15 C/ATT · 113 YDSCJ Miller · TOL
27 CAR · 135 YDSDaniel Swinney · SAC
4 CAR · 24 YDSAnthony Simpson · TOL
1 REC · 18 YDSRaiden Brown · SAC
5 REC · 108 YDS
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Toledo vs Sacramento St pick result · Nov 4, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is SAC +25.5, with a 52% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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