NCAAFFinal/OTWarren McGuirk Alumni Stadium

Ball State Cardinals at Massachusetts Minutemen

Final/OT · ESPNU

30–31

Ball StateUMass

Final

Ball State Cardinals

3-6 · L2

213 PF · 341 PA

Final

Final/OT

Massachusetts Minutemen

5-4 · L1

243 PF · 223 PA

BALL 38%MASS 62%

At lock: projected BALL 22.60–27.56 MASS

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 3, 6:17 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1947107190

Winner called · off by 11

Most typical sim

BALL 23 – MASS 27

Final

BALL 30 – MASS 31

Winner: UMass (62%)
Spread: MASS -3 covers (53% vs 41%, push 6%)
Total: Over 49.5 (53%)
Score error (both teams)11

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: BALL vs MASS

The model

How this number was built

BALL 22.60–27.56 MASS · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
MASS -16.6 vs BALL -21.3 · pred margin +4.3
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -5.2 vs -8.0 · model MASS 28.6–21.0 BALL
Home field
+3.0 pts to MASS
Record
MASS 5-4 · BALL 3-6
Market prior
Blended 66% toward MASS -2.5 / total 48.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	T
BALL	7	3	7	7	6	30
MASS	0	14	7	3	7	31

How the points were scored

TDQ1 6:497–0
Jamarion McDougle 20 Yd pass from Keldric Luster (Brody Boehm Kick)
TDQ2 11:347–7
Elijah Faulkner 1 Yd Run (Derek Morris Kick)
FGQ2 0:3310–7
Brody Boehm 22 Yd Field Goal
TDQ2 0:1210–14
Jabari Lewis 64 Yd pass from William Watson III (Derek Morris Kick)
TDQ3 8:1517–14
Jalen Bonds 42 Yd Run (Brody Boehm Kick)
TDQ3 2:3117–21
William Watson III 1 Yd Run (Derek Morris Kick)
FGQ4 2:1417–24
Derek Morris 23 Yd Field Goal
TDQ4 0:2524–24
Keldric Luster 2 Yd Run (Brody Boehm Kick)
TDOT 0:0030–24
Jalen Bonds 1 Yd Run (Brody Boehm PAT failed)
TDOT 0:0030–31
William Watson III 13 Yd Run (Derek Morris Kick)

Player stats

Full box — every player, every category.

Passing

BALL	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	QBR
Keldric Luster #6	17/27	182	6.7	1	0	25.2
Team	17/27	182	6.7	1	0	--

Rushing

BALL	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Jalen Bonds #2	17	132	7.8	2	42
Keldric Luster #6	14	21	1.5	1	21
TJ Horton #4	4	11	2.8	0	4
CJ Nelson #7	1	5	5.0	0	5
Team	1	-1	-1.0	0	0
Team	37	168	4.5	3	42

Receiving

BALL	REC	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Alex Scherle #88	3	49	16.3	0	35
Donovan Hamilton #1	3	44	14.7	0	21
Jamarion McDougle #10	2	34	17.0	1	20
Tate Hoover #24	1	20	20.0	0	20
Jalen Bonds #2	5	19	3.8	0	7
TJ Horton #4	2	17	8.5	0	16
Isaiah Thacker #11	1	-1	-1.0	0	0
Team	17	182	10.7	1	35

Fumbles

BALL	FUM	LOST	REC
Ben Marsh #7	0	0	1
Mikeah Webster #25	0	0	1
Team	0	0	2

Defense

BALL	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HUR
Sterling Smith #1	9	4	0	0	0	0
Mikeah Webster #25	7	5	0	1	0	0
Cincear Lewis #6	7	3	0	0.5	0	0
Will Yates #4	4	3	0	0	1	0
Lucas Szymborski #26	4	3	0	0	0	0
Gavin Forsha #27	4	2	0	0	0	0
Quentavius Scandrett #2	3	2	0	0	0	0
Anthony Pinnace #14	3	2	0	0.5	0	0
Deondre Shepherd #12	2	2	0	0	0	0
Gabe Aramboles #21	2	2	0	0	0	0
Ka'Shawn Thomas #94	2	1	0	0	0	0
Kaleb Stewart #16	2	1	0	0	0	0
Ameir Glenn #56	2	1	0	0	0	1
Ben Marsh #7	1	1	1	1	0	1
Jared Badie #31	1	1	0	0	0	1
Derek Fields #0	1	1	0	0	0	0
Eli Hohlt #83	1	1	0	0	0	0
Reese Hill #57	1	1	0	0	0	0
Chris Jackson #5	1	1	0	0	1	0
Justin Thomas #9	1	1	0	1	0	0
Stone Perkins #28	1	1	0	0	0	0
Layton Starks #11	1	0	0	0	0	0
Kamari Williams #17	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team	61	39	1	4	2	3

Kick returns

BALL	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG	TD
TJ Horton #4	1	37	37.0	37	0
Team	1	37	37.0	37	0

Punt returns

BALL	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG	TD
Deondre Shepherd #12	1	12	12.0	12	0
Team	1	12	12.0	12	0

Kicking

BALL	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Brody Boehm #38	1/1	100.0	22	3/4	6
Team	1/1	100.0	22	3/4	6

Punting

BALL	NO	YDS	AVG	TB	In 20	LONG
Cole Stumbaugh #32	7	292	41.7	0	5	53
Team	7	292	41.7	0	5	53

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	BALL	MASS
1st Downs	18	23
3rd down efficiency	6-14	4-10
4th down efficiency	0-0	0-0
Total Yards	350	455
Passing	182	302
Comp/Att	17/27	17/25
Yards per pass	6.7	12.1
Rushing	168	153
Rushing Attempts	37	39
Yards per rush	4.5	3.9
Penalties	10-95	5-50
Turnovers	0	2
Fumbles lost	0	2
Interceptions thrown	0	0
Possession	26:39	33:18

Computer pick · Spread

MASS -3.5

51%

At lock BALL 22.60–27.56 MASS · MASS by 5.0 pts vs MASS -3.5 · 51% is the confidence saved at lock

Miss

Players

Keldric Luster · BALL
17/27 C/ATT · 182 YDS
William Watson III · MASS
17/25 C/ATT · 302 YDS
Jalen Bonds · BALL
17 CAR · 132 YDS
Curtis Kimmons IV · MASS
19 CAR · 85 YDS
Alex Scherle · BALL
3 REC · 49 YDS
Kezion Dia-Johnson · MASS
3 REC · 97 YDS

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Ball State vs UMass pick result · Nov 4, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is MASS -3.5, with a 51% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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