NCAAFFinal/OTYager Stadium

Buffalo Bulls at Miami (OH) RedHawks

Final/OT · ESPN

34–31

BuffaloMiami OH

Final

Buffalo Bulls

6-3 · W5

243 PF · 241 PA

Final

Final/OT

Miami (OH) RedHawks

5-4 · W1

281 PF · 257 PA

BUFF 34%M-OH 66%

At lock: projected BUFF 19.85–26.36 M-OH

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 2, 7:06 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1963884809

Missed · off by 18

Most typical sim

BUFF 20 – M-OH 27

Final

BUFF 34 – M-OH 31

Winner: Miami OH (66%)
Spread: M-OH -6.5 covers (52%)
Total: Over 44.5 (58%)
Score error (both teams)18

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: BUFF vs M-OH

The model

How this number was built

BUFF 19.85–26.36 M-OH · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
M-OH -9.1 vs BUFF -11.5 · pred margin +6.2
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +2.2 vs +0.4 · model M-OH 28.2–22.1 BUFF
Home field
+3.0 pts to M-OH
Record
M-OH 5-4 · BUFF 6-3
Market prior
Blended 66% toward M-OH -6.5 / total 45.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	T
BUFF	3	7	6	15	3	34
M-OH	7	10	7	7	0	31

How the points were scored

FGQ1 10:493–0
Oliver Hautanen 33 Yd Field Goal
TDQ1 5:253–7
Braylon Isom 21 Yd pass from Caleb Heavner (Kellan McLaughlin Kick)
TDQ2 14:143–14
Rodney Nelson 10 Yd Run (Kellan McLaughlin Kick)
TDQ2 2:2810–14
Jason Wright 1 Yd Run (Kellan McLaughlin Kick)
FGQ2 0:2610–17
Kellan McLaughlin 35 Yd Field Goal
TDQ3 14:0210–24
Scoop Smith 38 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Kellan McLaughlin Kick)
TDQ3 1:3016–24
Chance Morrow 2 Yd pass from Jason Wright (Oliver Hautanen PAT failed)
TDQ4 12:0116–31
Scoop Smith 6 Yd Run (Kellan McLaughlin Kick)
TDQ4 8:5624–31
Chance Morrow 4 Yd pass from Jason Wright (Jason Wright Pass to Chance Morrow for Two-Point Conversion)
TDQ4 1:3531–31
Jason Wright 2 Yd Run (Oliver Hautanen Kick)
FGOT 0:0034–31
Oliver Hautanen 27 Yd Field Goal

Player stats

Full box — every player, every category.

Passing

BUFF	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	QBR
Jason Wright #7	22/46	358	7.8	2	2	65.7
Team	22/46	358	7.8	2	2	--

Rushing

BUFF	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Messiah Burch #4	14	56	4.0	0	27
Terrance Shelton Jr. #25	12	41	3.4	0	12
Jason Wright #7	7	4	0.6	2	7
Team	33	101	3.1	2	27

Receiving

BUFF	REC	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Chance Morrow #6	12	199	16.6	2	39
Dwayne Early Jr. #11	4	80	20.0	0	35
Jaylen Andrews #2	4	41	10.3	0	13
Patrick Clacks III #3	1	28	28.0	0	28
Jasaiah Gathings #8	1	10	10.0	0	10
Team	22	358	16.3	2	39

Defense

BUFF	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HUR
Ronnell Davis #4	9	8	0	0	1	0
SaVeon Brown #1	8	6	0	0	0	0
John Keough #7	8	3	0	1	1	0
Sedrick Vessah #15	7	2	1.5	2.5	1	1
Miles Greer #6	6	3	0	1	2	0
Mikey Crawford #5	5	4	0	0	1	0
Zach Bergmann #44	5	1	0	0	0	0
Will Clark #11	4	3	2	2	0	0
Oliver Bridges #3	4	2	0	0	0	0
Cornell Evans #99	3	1	0	0	0	0
Logan Goodwin #17	2	2	0	0	0	0
Caleb Oliver #16	2	1	0	1	0	0
Rex Stinchcomb #88	2	1	0	0	0	0
Jordan Owens #33	2	0	0.5	0.5	0	0
Kobi Blackwell #0	1	1	0	0	0	0
Xavier Leonard #23	1	1	0	0	0	0
Jaylen Andrews #2	1	1	0	0	0	0
Christopher Climes #97	1	0	0.5	0.5	0	1
Mason Nickel #55	1	0	0.5	0.5	0	0
Team	72	40	5	9	6	2

Kick returns

BUFF	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG	TD
Phillip Folmar #1	1	32	32.0	32	0
Team	1	32	32.0	32	0

Punt returns

BUFF	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG	TD
Miles Greer #6	2	20	10.0	16	0
Team	2	20	10.0	16	0

Kicking

BUFF	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Oliver Hautanen #31	2/2	100.0	33	2/3	8
Team	2/2	100.0	33	2/3	8

Punting

BUFF	NO	YDS	AVG	In 20	LONG
Ethan Stumpf #90	3	123	41.0	1	47
Team	1	0	0.0	0	0
Team	4	123	30.8	1	47

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	BUFF	M-OH
1st Downs	29	23
3rd down efficiency	6-14	5-15
4th down efficiency	2-2	1-1
Total Yards	459	350
Passing	358	154
Comp/Att	22/46	12/23
Yards per pass	7.8	6.7
Rushing	101	196
Rushing Attempts	33	48
Yards per rush	3.1	4.1
Penalties	6-56	13-104
Turnovers	2	0
Fumbles lost	0	0
Interceptions thrown	2	0
Possession	27:24	32:36

Computer pick · Spread

M-OH -6.5

51%

At lock BUFF 19.85–26.36 M-OH · M-OH by 6.5 pts vs M-OH -6.5 · 51% is the confidence saved at lock

Miss

Players

Jason Wright · BUFF
22/46 C/ATT · 358 YDS
Caleb Heavner · M-OH
12/23 C/ATT · 154 YDS
Messiah Burch · BUFF
14 CAR · 56 YDS
D'Shawntae Jones · M-OH
17 CAR · 112 YDS
Chance Morrow · BUFF
12 REC · 199 YDS
Braylon Isom · M-OH
6 REC · 74 YDS

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Buffalo vs Miami OH pick result · Nov 3, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is M-OH -6.5, with a 51% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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