Ohio Bobcats at Akron Zips
Final · ESPN2
28–20
At lock: projected OHIO 31.98–19.01 AKR
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 2, 6:06 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1980662428
- Winner: Ohio (79%)
- Spread: OHIO -12.5 covers (51%)
- Total: Over 50.5 (52%)
- Score error (both teams)5
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: OHIO vs AKR
The model
How this number was built
OHIO 31.98–19.01 AKR · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexAKR -23.7 vs OHIO -9.8 · pred margin -12.2
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -8.0 vs +2.5 · model AKR 19.4–32.5 OHIO
- Home field+3.0 pts to AKR
- RecordAKR 1-8 · OHIO 7-2
- Market priorBlended 66% toward OHIO -12.5 / total 52.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OHIO | 7 | 0 | 7 | 14 | 28 |
| AKR | 3 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 20 |
How the points were scored
- FGQ1 3:350–3
Aidan Stire 42 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ1 0:097–3
DJ Walker 45 Yd Interception Return (Brack Peacock Kick)
- FGQ2 3:287–6
Aidan Stire 47 Yd Field Goal
- FGQ3 9:327–9
Aidan Stire 24 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ3 4:2214–9
Nick Poulos 5 Yd Run (Brack Peacock Kick)
- TDQ4 9:3514–17
Jordan Gant 1 Yd Run (Cibastian Broughton Pass to Marcel Williams for Two-Point Conversion)
- TDQ4 9:2221–17
Dom Dorwart 60 Yd pass from Nick Poulos (Brack Peacock Kick)
- TDQ4 3:5728–17
Duncan Brune 91 Yd Run (Brack Peacock Kick)
- FGQ4 1:5628–20
Aidan Stire 43 Yd Field Goal
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
Passing
| OHIO | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | QBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Nick Poulos #8 | 12/20 | 197 | 9.9 | 1 | 0 | 56.8 |
| Team | 12/20 | 197 | 9.9 | 1 | 0 | -- |
Rushing
| OHIO | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Duncan Brune #6 | 10 | 111 | 11.1 | 1 | 91 |
Nick Poulos #8 | 9 | 51 | 5.7 | 1 | 17 |
 Victor Rosa #4 | 5 | 5 | 1.0 | 0 | 3 |
 Irving Brown #24 | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | 2 |
 Levi Davis #7 | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 26 | 167 | 6.4 | 2 | 91 |
Receiving
| OHIO | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Dom Dorwart #3 | 4 | 108 | 27.0 | 1 | 60 |
 Riley Neer #15 | 4 | 54 | 13.5 | 0 | 29 |
 Preston Bowman #2 | 3 | 36 | 12.0 | 0 | 24 |
 Andrew Metzger #86 | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 12 | 197 | 16.4 | 1 | 60 |
Fumbles
| OHIO | FUM | LOST | REC |
|---|---|---|---|
Nick Poulos #8 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
 Jack Fries #27 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Team | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Defense
| OHIO | TOT | SOLO | SACKS | TFL | PD | QB HUR | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Michael Molnar #25 | 16 | 7 | 1 | 1.5 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Jack Fries #27 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Tyler Gillison #9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Darren James-Hamilton #4 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Ronald Jackson Jr. #21 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 DJ Walker #2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 Evan Herrmann #11 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Derek Reagans #98 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Nathan Hale #57 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Ike Ackerman #14 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Nehemiah Dukes #0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Kendall Bannister #20 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Joseph Marsh #23 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 KJ Sejour #5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Charlie Christopher #30 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Blake Guffey #37 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Ty Neubert #99 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Zach Hackleman #11 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Miles Cremascoli #18 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 JT Haskins #3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Caleb Chamberlin #17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Drayden Pavey #10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 82 | 36 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
Interceptions
| OHIO | INT | YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|
DJ Walker #2 | 1 | 45 | 1 |
| Team | 1 | 45 | 1 |
Kick returns
| OHIO | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Darren James-Hamilton #4 | 2 | 33 | 16.5 | 17 | 0 |
| Team | 2 | 33 | 16.5 | 17 | 0 |
Kicking
| OHIO | FG | PCT | LONG | XP | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Brack Peacock #43 | 0/1 | 0.0 | 0 | 4/4 | 4 |
| Team | 0/1 | 0.0 | 0 | 4/4 | 4 |
Punting
| OHIO | NO | YDS | AVG | TB | In 20 | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Magnus Haines #42 | 4 | 186 | 46.5 | 0 | 2 | 50 |
| Team | 4 | 186 | 46.5 | 0 | 2 | 50 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| OHIO | AKR | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Downs | 12 | 26 |
| 3rd down efficiency | 3-9 | 5-12 |
| 4th down efficiency | 0-1 | 1-2 |
| Total Yards | 364 | 392 |
| Passing | 197 | 232 |
| Comp/Att | 12/20 | 22/35 |
| Yards per pass | 9.9 | 6.6 |
| Rushing | 167 | 160 |
| Rushing Attempts | 26 | 44 |
| Yards per rush | 6.4 | 3.6 |
| Penalties | 8-88 | 5-30 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 2 |
| Fumbles lost | 1 | 1 |
| Interceptions thrown | 0 | 1 |
| Possession | 24:14 | 35:46 |
At lock OHIO 31.98–19.01 AKR · 0.5 pts over 50.5 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock
MissNick Poulos · OHIO
12/20 C/ATT · 197 YDSCibastian Broughton · AKR
22/34 C/ATT · 232 YDSDuncan Brune · OHIO
10 CAR · 111 YDSJordan Gant · AKR
16 CAR · 112 YDSDom Dorwart · OHIO
4 REC · 108 YDSKyan Mason · AKR
6 REC · 71 YDS
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Ohio vs Akron pick result · Nov 3, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 50.5, with a 52% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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