NCAAFSat 3:00 PM CTPeden Stadium

Eastern Michigan Eagles at Ohio Bobcats

TV · ESPNU

Sat 3:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Spread

OHIO -11.5

51%

EMU 18.81–30.85 OHIO

Eastern Michigan Eagles

4-4 · L1

172 PF · 207 PA

18.81

Projected

Ohio Bobcats

5-2 · W4 · computer pick

213 PF · 155 PA

30.85

EMU 23%OHIO 77%

Projected EMU 18.81–30.85 OHIO

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

OHIO -13.1

OHIO -11.5

Total

50.0

49.5

Gap: +1.6 margin, +0.5 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: EMU vs OHIO

The model

How this number was built

EMU 18.81–30.85 OHIO · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
OHIO -7.1 vs EMU -16.7 · pred margin +12.0
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +4.0 vs -3.0 · model OHIO 32.6–18.3 EMU
Home field
+3.0 pts to OHIO
Record
OHIO 5-2 · EMU 4-4
Market prior
Blended 67% toward OHIO -11.5 / total 49.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Noah Kim
Pass 169/285, 1678 YDS, 11 TD, 4 INT
Amareon Blue
Rush 68 CAR, 338 YDS, 3 TD
Joshua Long
Rec 38 REC, 366 YDS, 2 TD

Nick Poulos
Pass 38/68, 503 YDS, 5 TD
Duncan Brune
Rush 73 CAR, 330 YDS, 3 TD
Riley Neer
Rec 32 REC, 441 YDS, 5 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	EMU	OHIO
Points Per Game	21.5	30.4
Total Yards	320.0	371.4
Yards Passing	215.0	164.4
Yards Rushing	105.0	207.0
Points Allowed Per Game	25.9	22.1
Yards Allowed	379.3	337.1
Pass Yards Allowed	237.0	198.4
Rush Yards Allowed	142.3	138.7

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

E Michigan vs Ohio prediction · Oct 24, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is OHIO -11.5, with a 51% model probability. The model projects E Michigan 18.8, Ohio 30.9. Model win probability: Ohio 77%, E Michigan 23%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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