NCAAFSat 2:30 PM CTBroadview Stadium

Bowling Green Falcons at Buffalo Bulls

TV · ESPN+

Sat 2:30 PM CT

Computer pick · Spread

BUFF -4.5

53%

BGSU 19.53–25.19 BUFF

Bowling Green Falcons

2-5 · L1

126 PF · 207 PA

19.53

Projected

Buffalo Bulls

4-3 · W2 · computer pick

150 PF · 179 PA

25.19

BGSU 36%BUFF 64%

Projected BGSU 19.53–25.19 BUFF

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

BUFF -8.0

BUFF -4.5

Total

45.1

44.5

Gap: +3.5 margin, +0.6 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: BGSU vs BUFF

The model

How this number was built

BGSU 19.53–25.19 BUFF · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
BUFF -12.9 vs BGSU -17.7 · pred margin +5.7
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -1.0 vs -4.4 · model BUFF 27.5–19.0 BGSU
Home field
+3.0 pts to BUFF
Record
BUFF 4-3 · BGSU 2-5
Market prior
Blended 67% toward BUF -4.5 / total 44.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Jay Kastantin
Pass 111/167, 1201 YDS, 7 TD, 4 INT
Austyn Dendy
Rush 94 CAR, 332 YDS, 4 TD
Jeremiah Scoby
Rec 26 REC, 269 YDS

Jason Wright
Pass 79/164, 860 YDS, 6 TD, 4 INT
Messiah Burch
Rush 118 CAR, 661 YDS, 2 TD
Chance Morrow
Rec 37 REC, 441 YDS, 6 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	BGSU	BUFF
Points Per Game	18.0	21.4
Total Yards	280.1	323.4
Yards Passing	174.4	158.6
Yards Rushing	105.7	164.9
Points Allowed Per Game	29.6	25.6
Yards Allowed	383.9	382.1
Pass Yards Allowed	174.3	229.3
Rush Yards Allowed	209.6	152.9

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Bowling Green vs Buffalo prediction · Oct 24, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is BUFF -4.5, with a 53% model probability. The model projects Bowling Green 19.5, Buffalo 25.2. Model win probability: Buffalo 64%, Bowling Green 36%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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