San José State Spartans at Air Force Falcons
Final · CBSSN
3–24
At lock: projected SJSU 17.56–29.91 AFA
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 13, 9:00 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3685802094
- Winner: Air Force (77%)
- Spread: SJSU +12.5 covers (51%)
- Total: Over 47.5 (51%)
- Score error (both teams)21
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: SJSU vs AFA
The model
How this number was built
SJSU 17.56–29.91 AFA · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexAFA -3.2 vs SJSU -12.0 · pred margin +14.3
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +3.1 vs -2.9 · model AFA 30.8–18.1 SJSU
- Home field+3.0 pts to AFA
- RecordAFA 8-2 · SJSU 5-6
- Market priorBlended 66% toward AF -15.5 / total 50.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJSU | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| AFA | 0 | 17 | 0 | 7 | 24 |
How the points were scored
- FGQ2 10:580–3
Carter Cremascoli 38 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ2 3:240–10
Kemper Hodges 4 Yd Run (Carter Cremascoli Kick)
- TDQ2 1:560–17
Evan Medders 81 Yd Run (Carter Cremascoli Kick)
- FGQ3 12:223–17
Trajan Sinatra 33 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ4 6:173–24
Kemper Hodges 7 Yd Run (Carter Cremascoli Kick)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
Passing
| SJSU | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | QBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Luke Weaver #3 | 11/24 | 138 | 5.8 | 0 | 0 | 24.1 |
 Daniel Rolovich #5 | 2/4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 | 0 | 0.4 |
 Carson Clark #1 | 0/1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | -- |
| Team | 13/29 | 149 | 5.1 | 0 | 0 | -- |
Rushing
| SJSU | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Viliami Teu #20 | 8 | 32 | 4.0 | 0 | 18 |
 Jabari Bates #6 | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 0 | 15 |
Luke Weaver #3 | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 | 9 |
Carson Clark #1 | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 | 8 |
Daniel Rolovich #5 | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 | 8 |
| Team | 18 | 75 | 4.2 | 0 | 18 |
Receiving
| SJSU | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Carson Clark #1 | 6 | 57 | 9.5 | 0 | 16 |
Jabari Bates #6 | 2 | 46 | 23.0 | 0 | 39 |
 Jase Nix #9 | 3 | 46 | 15.3 | 0 | 31 |
 Jerry McClure #2 | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | 4 |
Viliami Teu #20 | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 13 | 149 | 11.5 | 0 | 39 |
Fumbles
| SJSU | FUM | LOST | REC |
|---|---|---|---|
Daniel Rolovich #5 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 John Norwood #97 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Team | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Defense
| SJSU | TOT | SOLO | SACKS | TFL | PD | QB HUR | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Naseri Danielson #3 | 13 | 5 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Dylan Lee #4 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Ethan Powell #6 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Tuli Tagovailoa-Amosa #39 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Dejon Roney #48 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Caleb Womack #32 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Aizik Mahuka #7 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Justin Stearns #57 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jayland McGlothen #90 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Solomone Langi #51 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jeremiah Tuiileila #45 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jayden Robertson #14 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Pierce Walker #13 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Brian Dukes Jr. #1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Etu Finau #89 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Noa Siaosi #92 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Auma Jennings #91 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Bronx Letuligasenoa #41 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
John Norwood #97 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 91 | 41 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Punt returns
| SJSU | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Anthony Ivey #10 | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 2 | 0 |
Kicking
| SJSU | FG | PCT | LONG | XP | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Trajan Sinatra #36 | 1/2 | 50.0 | 33 | 0/0 | 3 |
| Team | 1/2 | 50.0 | 33 | 0/0 | 3 |
Punting
| SJSU | NO | YDS | AVG | TB | In 20 | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Trent Carrizosa #49 | 7 | 301 | 43.0 | 2 | 3 | 59 |
| Team | 7 | 301 | 43.0 | 2 | 3 | 59 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| SJSU | AFA | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Downs | 10 | 22 |
| 3rd down efficiency | 2-12 | 8-18 |
| 4th down efficiency | 0-1 | 2-5 |
| Total Yards | 224 | 451 |
| Passing | 149 | 0 |
| Comp/Att | 13/29 | 0/5 |
| Yards per pass | 5.1 | 0.0 |
| Rushing | 75 | 452 |
| Rushing Attempts | 18 | 72 |
| Yards per rush | 4.2 | 6.3 |
| Penalties | 5-24 | 1-10 |
| Turnovers | 0 | 1 |
| Fumbles lost | 0 | 1 |
| Interceptions thrown | 0 | 0 |
| Possession | 20:29 | 39:31 |
Model projected SJSU 17.56 – 29.91 AFA at lock · below the strong-play bar (edge -2.8%; strong needs +3%) · informational lean, not a recommended bet
Luke Weaver · SJSU
11/24 C/ATT · 138 YDSTeam · AFA
0/1 C/ATT · 0.0 AVGViliami Teu · SJSU
8 CAR · 32 YDSEvan Medders · AFA
13 CAR · 146 YDSCarson Clark · SJSU
6 REC · 57 YDSNaseri Danielson · SJSU
13 TOT · 5 SOLO
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
San José St vs Air Force pick result · Nov 14, 2026
Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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