Nevada Wolf Pack at Northern Illinois Huskies
Final · MW+
28–7
At lock: projected NEV 27.40–19.90 NIU
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 13, 3:20 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3585136380
- Winner: Nevada (69%)
- Spread: NEV -7 covers (49% vs 47%, push 5%)
- Total: Under 47.5 (51%)
- Score error (both teams)14
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: NEV vs NIU
The model
How this number was built
NEV 27.40–19.90 NIU · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexNIU -21.4 vs NEV -9.4 · pred margin -7.2
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -9.6 vs -2.8 · model NIU 19.9–27.3 NEV
- Home field+3.0 pts to NIU
- RecordNIU 0-10 · NEV 4-6
- Market priorBlended 66% toward NEV -6.5 / total 48.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEV | 7 | 14 | 7 | 0 | 28 |
| NIU | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 7 |
How the points were scored
- TDQ1 9:587–0
Herschel Turner 6 Yd Run (Joe McFadden Kick)
- TDQ2 12:0514–0
Herschel Turner 29 Yd Run (Joe McFadden Kick)
- TDQ2 7:1921–0
Trace Estes 51 Yd pass from AJ Bianco (Joe McFadden Kick)
- TDQ3 4:2228–0
Trace Estes 22 Yd pass from AJ Bianco (Joe McFadden Kick)
- TDQ4 4:1628–7
DeAree Rogers 5 Yd pass from Taron Dickens (JJ Schlenhardt Kick)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
Passing
| NEV | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | QBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 AJ Bianco #10 | 6/13 | 96 | 7.4 | 2 | 1 | 30.3 |
| Team | 6/13 | 96 | 7.4 | 2 | 1 | -- |
Rushing
| NEV | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Herschel Turner #1 | 13 | 153 | 11.8 | 2 | 30 |
AJ Bianco #10 | 13 | 90 | 6.9 | 0 | 16 |
 Janerious Jackson #2 | 11 | 42 | 3.8 | 0 | 11 |
 Dominic Kelley #0 | 10 | 20 | 2.0 | 0 | 6 |
 Perrion Williams #88 | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 | 7 |
 Ky Woods #25 | 3 | -4 | -1.3 | 0 | 1 |
| Team | 51 | 308 | 6.0 | 2 | 30 |
Receiving
| NEV | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Trace Estes #81 | 2 | 73 | 36.5 | 2 | 51 |
Perrion Williams #88 | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 | 12 |
 Marshaun Brown #9 | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 | 9 |
Herschel Turner #1 | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Team | 6 | 96 | 16.0 | 2 | 51 |
Fumbles
| NEV | FUM | LOST | REC |
|---|---|---|---|
 Brandon Amaniampong #4 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 Isaiah Jordan #26 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Team | 0 | 0 | 2 |
Defense
| NEV | TOT | SOLO | SACKS | TFL | PD | QB HUR | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Aiden Walker #18 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 David Paine Jr. #98 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 EJ Smith #2 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
 Jeremy Naborne-Owens #1 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 1.5 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Joshua Scott #0 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Larry Turner-Gooden #8 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0.5 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Isaiah Jordan #26 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Kameron Brown #3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Logologo Va'a #10 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Zion Jones #5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Tanner Vaughan #96 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
 Poasa Utu #11 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Selman Bridges #7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Bishop Turner #15 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jason Hemphill II #90 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Dylan LaBarbera #32 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 54 | 44 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 0 | 0 |
Interceptions
| NEV | INT | YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|
Joshua Scott #0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Kick returns
| NEV | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ky Woods #25 | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 16 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 16 | 0 |
Kicking
| NEV | FG | PCT | LONG | XP | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Joe McFadden #84 | 0/0 | 0.0 | 0 | 4/4 | 4 |
| Team | 0/0 | 0.0 | 0 | 4/4 | 4 |
Punting
| NEV | NO | YDS | AVG | TB | In 20 | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Ewan Baulch #95 | 3 | 116 | 38.7 | 0 | 2 | 46 |
| Team | 3 | 116 | 38.7 | 0 | 2 | 46 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| NEV | NIU | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Downs | 24 | 16 |
| 3rd down efficiency | 3-9 | 4-12 |
| 4th down efficiency | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Total Yards | 404 | 262 |
| Passing | 96 | 194 |
| Comp/Att | 6/13 | 21/35 |
| Yards per pass | 7.4 | 5.5 |
| Rushing | 308 | 68 |
| Rushing Attempts | 51 | 29 |
| Yards per rush | 6.0 | 2.3 |
| Penalties | 6-53 | 10-107 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 3 |
| Fumbles lost | 0 | 2 |
| Interceptions thrown | 1 | 1 |
| Possession | 32:10 | 27:50 |
Model projected NEV 27.40 – 19.90 NIU at lock · below the strong-play bar (edge -1.8%; strong needs +3%) · informational lean, not a recommended bet
AJ Bianco · NEV
6/13 C/ATT · 96 YDSTaron Dickens · NIU
21/35 C/ATT · 194 YDSHerschel Turner · NEV
13 CAR · 153 YDSTelly Johnson Jr. · NIU
11 CAR · 31 YDSTrace Estes · NEV
2 REC · 73 YDSLa'Don Bryant · NIU
4 REC · 68 YDS
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Nevada vs N Illinois pick result · Nov 14, 2026
Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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