NCAAFFinalAllegiant Stadium

Wyoming Cowboys at UNLV Rebels

Final · CBSSN

41–35

WyomingUNLV

Final

Wyoming Cowboys

6-3 · W5

224 PF · 210 PA

Final

UNLV Rebels

5-4 · W1

256 PF · 248 PA

WYO 32%UNLV 68%

At lock: projected WYO 19.61–27.21 UNLV

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 11:38 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3635469237

Missed · off by 29

Most typical sim

WYO 20 – UNLV 27

Final

WYO 41 – UNLV 35

Winner: UNLV (69%)
Spread: UNLV -4.5 covers (59%)
Total: Under 48.5 (55%)
Score error (both teams)29

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: WYO vs UNLV

The model

How this number was built

WYO 19.61–27.21 UNLV · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
UNLV -4.9 vs WYO -11.1 · pred margin +4.8
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +1.7 vs -0.4 · model UNLV 27.9–21.4 WYO
Home field
+3.0 pts to UNLV
Record
UNLV 5-4 · WYO 6-3
Market prior
Blended 66% toward UNLV -3 / total 50.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
WYO	10	24	7	0	41
UNLV	7	14	7	7	35

How the points were scored

TDQ1 10:327–0
Kyle Frendt 13 Yd pass from Tyler Hughes (Erik Sandvik Kick)
TDQ1 9:207–7
Jai'Den Thomas 3 Yd Run (Ramon Villela Kick)
FGQ1 5:0210–7
Erik Sandvik 43 Yd Field Goal
TDQ2 12:1717–7
Samuel Harris 1 Yd Run (Erik Sandvik Kick)
TDQ2 6:4224–7
Jake Wilson 18 Yd pass from Landon Sims (Erik Sandvik Kick)
TDQ2 4:2324–14
Kayden McGee 33 Yd pass from Jackson Arnold (Ramon Villela Kick)
TDQ2 1:5524–21
Taz Reddicks 8 Yd pass from Jackson Arnold (Ramon Villela Kick)
TDQ2 0:4931–21
Landon Sims 13 Yd Run (Erik Sandvik Kick)
FGQ2 0:0034–21
Erik Sandvik 35 Yd Field Goal
TDQ3 5:1441–21
Samuel Harris 42 Yd Run (Erik Sandvik Kick)
TDQ3 0:2241–28
Alex Orji 2 Yd Run (Ramon Villela Kick)
TDQ4 8:3241–35
Jai'Den Thomas 11 Yd Run (Ramon Villela Kick)

Player stats

Full box — every player, every category.

Passing

WYO	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	QBR
Tyler Hughes #6	5/9	107	11.9	1	0	92.5
Landon Sims #14	2/6	25	4.2	1	1	17.3
Team	7/15	132	8.8	2	1	--

Rushing

WYO	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Samuel Harris #1	17	128	7.5	2	42
Markell Holman #8	16	110	6.9	0	49
Tyler Hughes #6	12	71	5.9	0	27
Nico Hamilton #21	2	16	8.0	0	16
Landon Sims #14	4	15	3.8	1	13
Eric Richardson #2	2	9	4.5	0	6
J Jayden Williams #11	1	6	6.0	0	6
Team	2	-4	-2.0	0	0
Team	56	351	6.3	3	49

Receiving

WYO	REC	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Jake Wilson #89	2	56	28.0	1	38
Ke'Lyn Washom #4	1	32	32.0	0	32
Kyle Frendt #83	2	27	13.5	1	14
Samuel Harris #1	1	10	10.0	0	10
Eric Richardson #2	1	7	7.0	0	7
Team	7	132	18.9	2	38

Fumbles

WYO	FUM	LOST	REC
Tyler Hughes #6	1	1	0
Team	1	1	0

Defense

WYO	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HUR
Ethan Stuhlsatz #42	10	6	2.5	2.5	0	1
Steven Perez #34	7	4	0	0	0	0
Cade Brook #90	5	1	1	1	0	1
Therman Williams #25	4	4	0	0	0	0
Jaden DaCosta #22	4	2	0	0	0	0
Jones Thomas #23	4	2	0	0	0	0
Donnie Wingate #99	4	1	0	0	0	0
Desman Hearns #1	3	3	0	0	0	0
Kevin Sjogren #55	3	0	0	0.5	0	0
Esaia Bogar #11	2	2	1	1	0	2
Dainsus Miller #20	2	2	0	0	0	0
Elvin Ampofo #13	2	1	0	0	0	0
Jayden Williams #98	2	0	0.5	0.5	0	1
Dante Drake #92	1	1	1	1	0	0
Tyler Hughes #6	1	1	0	0	0	0
Jett Vincent #4	1	1	0	0	0	0
Giovanni Panozzo #50	1	1	0	0	0	0
Jack Dunkley #21	1	0	0	0	0	0
Nikos Varelas #28	1	0	0	0	0	0
Drew Jackson #24	1	0	0	0	0	0
Gary Rutherford #26	1	0	0	0	1	0
Tegen Seeds #53	1	0	0	0.5	0	1
Parker Moore #33	1	0	0	0	0	0
Ke'Lyn Washom #4	1	0	0	0	0	0
Tyson Shamsid-Deen #0	1	0	0	0	0	0
Dante Bruley #40	1	0	0	0	0	0
Da'Marion Brownlee #18	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team	66	32	5	7	1	6

Interceptions

WYO	INT	YDS	TD
Tyson Shamsid-Deen #0	2	10	0
Team	2	10	0

Kick returns

WYO	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG	TD
Eric Richardson #2	2	39	19.5	25	0
Team	2	39	19.5	25	0

Punt returns

WYO	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG
Charlie Coenen #19	3	29	9.7	16
Eric Richardson #2	1	6	6.0	6
Team	4	35	8.8	16

Kicking

WYO	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Erik Sandvik #47	2/2	100.0	43	5/5	11
Team	2/2	100.0	43	5/5	11

Punting

WYO	NO	YDS	AVG	TB	In 20	LONG
Bart Edmiston #18	3	165	55.0	0	1	56
Team	3	165	55.0	0	1	56

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	WYO	UNLV
1st Downs	22	14
3rd down efficiency	5-14	7-14
4th down efficiency	2-3	1-3
Total Yards	483	304
Passing	132	141
Comp/Att	7/15	9/23
Yards per pass	8.8	6.1
Rushing	351	163
Rushing Attempts	56	39
Yards per rush	6.3	4.2
Penalties	7-45	3-25
Turnovers	2	2
Fumbles lost	1	0
Interceptions thrown	1	2
Possession	35:58	24:02

Computer pick · Spread

UNLV -7

51%

At lock WYO 19.61–27.21 UNLV · UNLV by 7.6 pts vs UNLV -7 · 51% is the confidence saved at lock

Miss

Players

Tyler Hughes · WYO
5/9 C/ATT · 107 YDS
Jackson Arnold · UNLV
7/18 C/ATT · 83 YDS
Samuel Harris · WYO
17 CAR · 128 YDS
Jai'Den Thomas · UNLV
16 CAR · 96 YDS
Jake Wilson · WYO
2 REC · 56 YDS
Tavian McNair · UNLV
2 REC · 51 YDS

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Wyoming vs UNLV pick result · Nov 7, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is UNLV -7, with a 51% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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