NCAAFSat 4:00 PM CTMackay Stadium

San José State Spartans at Nevada Wolf Pack

TV · MW+

Sat 4:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Spread

NEV -5.5

51%

SJSU 19.87–25.77 NEV

San José State Spartans

4-3 · W1

150 PF · 152 PA

19.87

Projected

Nevada Wolf Pack

2-4 · L1 · computer pick

156 PF · 141 PA

25.77

SJSU 36%NEV 64%

Projected SJSU 19.87–25.77 NEV

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

NEV -6.7

NEV -5.5

Total

45.9

45.5

Gap: +1.2 margin, +0.4 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: SJSU vs NEV

The model

How this number was built

SJSU 19.87–25.77 NEV · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
NEV -8.4 vs SJSU -12.5 · pred margin +5.9
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -1.3 vs -2.9 · model NEV 26.3–20.5 SJSU
Home field
+3.0 pts to NEV
Record
NEV 2-4 · SJSU 4-3
Market prior
Blended 68% toward NEV -5.5 / total 45.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Luke Weaver
Pass 132/209, 1529 YDS, 11 TD, 6 INT
Jabari Bates
Rush 120 CAR, 556 YDS, 1 TD
Carson Clark
Rec 42 REC, 509 YDS, 5 TD

Carter Jones
Pass 53/89, 654 YDS, 3 TD, 2 INT
Dominic Kelley
Rush 87 CAR, 500 YDS, 4 TD
Gary Givens III
Rec 15 REC, 260 YDS, 1 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	SJSU	NEV
Points Per Game	21.4	26.0
Total Yards	384.7	364.7
Yards Passing	246.0	171.8
Yards Rushing	138.7	192.8
Points Allowed Per Game	21.7	23.5
Yards Allowed	387.9	339.7
Pass Yards Allowed	241.0	156.3
Rush Yards Allowed	146.9	183.3

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

San José St vs Nevada prediction · Oct 24, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is NEV -5.5, with a 51% model probability. The model projects San José St 19.9, Nevada 25.8. Model win probability: Nevada 64%, San José St 36%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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