NCAAFSat 2:30 PM CTHuskie Stadium

Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors at Northern Illinois Huskies

TV · MW+

Sat 2:30 PM CT

Computer pick · Spread

HAW -4

51%

HAW 25.43–21.02 NIU

Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors

1-6 · L4 · computer pick

110 PF · 175 PA

25.43

Projected

Northern Illinois Huskies

0-6 · L6

85 PF · 214 PA

21.02

HAW 61%NIU 39%

Projected HAW 25.43–21.02 NIU

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

HAW -5.3

HAW -4.0

Total

46.4

46.5

Gap: -1.3 margin, -0.1 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: HAW vs NIU

The model

How this number was built

HAW 25.43–21.02 NIU · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
NIU -20.1 vs HAW -12.3 · pred margin -4.4
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -7.9 vs -1.7 · model NIU 19.9–26.2 HAW
Home field
+3.0 pts to NIU
Record
NIU 0-6 · HAW 1-6
Market prior
Blended 68% toward HAW -4 / total 46.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Micah Alejado
Pass 180/305, 1863 YDS, 6 TD, 5 INT
DeVon Rice
Rush 70 CAR, 314 YDS, 3 TD
Kainoa Carvalho
Rec 32 REC, 384 YDS

Taron Dickens
Pass 121/184, 1193 YDS, 4 TD, 3 INT
Telly Johnson Jr.
Rush 81 CAR, 439 YDS, 4 TD
DeAree Rogers
Rec 49 REC, 422 YDS, 2 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	HAW	NIU
Points Per Game	15.7	14.2
Total Yards	345.6	307.7
Yards Passing	268.1	206.7
Yards Rushing	77.4	101.0
Points Allowed Per Game	25.0	35.7
Yards Allowed	382.9	415.5
Pass Yards Allowed	202.1	187.0
Rush Yards Allowed	180.7	228.5

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Hawai'i vs N Illinois prediction · Oct 24, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is HAW -4, with a 51% model probability. The model projects Hawai'i 25.4, N Illinois 21.0. Model win probability: N Illinois 39%, Hawai'i 61%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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