Tulane Green Wave at Rice Owls
Final · ESPN+
20–17
At lock: projected TULN 24.54–24.78 RICE
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 13, 1:11 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2972088002
- Winner: Rice (51%)
- Spread: TULN +2.5 covers (52%)
- Total: Over 48.5 (54%)
- Score error (both teams)12
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: TULN vs RICE
The model
How this number was built
TULN 24.54–24.78 RICE · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexRICE -14.8 vs TULN -9.9 · pred margin +1.7
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -6.4 vs -1.6 · model RICE 23.9–28.0 TULN
- Home field+3.0 pts to RICE
- RecordRICE 1-9 · TULN 5-5
- Market priorBlended 66% toward RICE -4 / total 49.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TULN | 3 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 20 |
| RICE | 3 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 17 |
How the points were scored
- FGQ1 9:220–3
Tommy Bauchiero 27 Yd Field Goal
- FGQ1 2:513–3
Cooper Helmke 35 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ2 11:193–10
Max Mosey 4 Yd pass from Gael Ochoa (Tommy Bauchiero Kick)
- FGQ2 6:276–10
Cooper Helmke 41 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ2 0:316–17
Jamir Benjamin 62 Yd Interception Return (Tommy Bauchiero Kick)
- TDQ3 3:0813–17
DJ Dugar 1 Yd Run (Cooper Helmke Kick)
- TDQ4 9:5020–17
Bredell Richardson 24 Yd pass from Trace Johnson (Cooper Helmke Kick)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
Passing
| TULN | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | QBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Trace Johnson #11 | 19/38 | 190 | 5.0 | 1 | 2 | 35.2 |
 Dagan Bruno #14 | 0/1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | -- |
| Team | 19/39 | 190 | 4.9 | 1 | 2 | -- |
Rushing
| TULN | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Maurice Turner #0 | 15 | 90 | 6.0 | 0 | 45 |
 DJ Dugar #21 | 8 | 37 | 4.6 | 1 | 8 |
Trace Johnson #11 | 4 | 32 | 8.0 | 0 | 13 |
 Jaylin Lucas #12 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 | 3 |
Dagan Bruno #14 | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 | 3 |
| Team | 34 | 161 | 4.7 | 1 | 45 |
Receiving
| TULN | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Destyn Hill #2 | 5 | 44 | 8.8 | 0 | 17 |
 Zycarl Lewis Jr. #1 | 4 | 34 | 8.5 | 0 | 14 |
 Anthony Brown-Stephens #5 | 3 | 29 | 9.7 | 0 | 12 |
 Bredell Richardson #8 | 1 | 24 | 24.0 | 1 | 24 |
Maurice Turner #0 | 2 | 24 | 12.0 | 0 | 17 |
Jaylin Lucas #12 | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 0 | 12 |
 Oliver Mitchell Jr. #17 | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 | 12 |
 Garrett Mmahat #16 | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | 6 |
| Team | 19 | 190 | 10.0 | 1 | 24 |
Fumbles
| TULN | FUM | LOST | REC |
|---|---|---|---|
 Dickson Agu #2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Team | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Defense
| TULN | TOT | SOLO | SACKS | TFL | PD | QB HUR | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Makai Williams #42 | 12 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Dickson Agu #2 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Anthony Rogers #12 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Kevin Adams III #7 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jah'rie Garner #48 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Joshua Moore #30 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jack Tchienchou #1 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Cayden Dees #58 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 TJ Smith #3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Derrick Shepard Jr. #94 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Dalton Hughes #11 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Reshad Sterling #51 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Josh Lewis #99 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Ed Smith IV #45 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jean Claude Joseph III #44 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Garrett Mmahat #16 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Warren Roberts Jr. #40 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Armondous Cooley #92 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Dorion Jackson #26 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 E'zaiah Shine #5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 69 | 39 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Punt returns
| TULN | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Seth Gale #28 | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 8 | 0 |
| Team | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 8 | 0 |
Kicking
| TULN | FG | PCT | LONG | XP | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Cooper Helmke #35 | 2/2 | 100.0 | 41 | 2/2 | 8 |
| Team | 2/2 | 100.0 | 41 | 2/2 | 8 |
Punting
| TULN | NO | YDS | AVG | TB | In 20 | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Brooks Moore #33 | 2 | 93 | 46.5 | 0 | 1 | 48 |
| Team | 2 | 93 | 46.5 | 0 | 1 | 48 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| TULN | RICE | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Downs | 20 | 16 |
| 3rd down efficiency | 9-18 | 4-15 |
| 4th down efficiency | 3-4 | 4-6 |
| Total Yards | 351 | 256 |
| Passing | 190 | 32 |
| Comp/Att | 19/39 | 5/14 |
| Yards per pass | 4.9 | 2.3 |
| Rushing | 161 | 224 |
| Rushing Attempts | 34 | 51 |
| Yards per rush | 4.7 | 4.4 |
| Penalties | 2-20 | 1-15 |
| Turnovers | 2 | 1 |
| Fumbles lost | 0 | 1 |
| Interceptions thrown | 2 | 0 |
| Possession | 28:09 | 31:51 |
Model projected TULN 24.54 – 24.78 RICE at lock · below the strong-play bar (edge +0.2%; strong needs +3%) · informational lean, not a recommended bet
Trace Johnson · TULN
19/38 C/ATT · 190 YDSGael Ochoa · RICE
5/13 C/ATT · 32 YDSMaurice Turner · TULN
15 CAR · 90 YDSDestyn Hill · TULN
5 REC · 44 YDSMax Mosey · RICE
3 REC · 23 YDSMakai Williams · TULN
12 TOT · 7 SOLO
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Tulane vs Rice pick result · Nov 14, 2026
Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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