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Board/NCAAF
NCAAFFinalH. A. Chapman Stadium

Florida Atlantic Owls at Tulsa Golden Hurricane

Final · ESPN+

FAU21–38Tulsa
FAUTulsa
Final
Florida Atlantic Owls
6-4 · L1
383 PF · 353 PA
21
Final
Final
Tulsa Golden Hurricane
6-4 · W2
336 PF · 226 PA
38
FAU 34%TLSA 66%

At lock: projected FAU 33.60–40.14 TLSA

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 13, 3:20 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3005643240

Winner called · off by 15
Most typical sim
FAU 34 – TLSA 40
Final
FAU 21 – TLSA 38
  • Winner: Tulsa (66%)
  • Spread: TLSA -5.5 covers (53%)
  • Total: Under 74.5 (53%)
  • Score error (both teams)15

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: FAU vs TLSA

The model

How this number was built

FAU 33.60–40.14 TLSA · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

  • Power index
    TLSA -0.1 vs FAU -6.9 · pred margin +7.2
  • Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
    Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +3.6 vs +2.0 · model TLSA 36.7–30.9 FAU
  • Home field
    +3.0 pts to TLSA
  • Record
    TLSA 6-4 · FAU 6-4
  • Market prior
    Blended 66% toward TLSA -6.5 / total 72.5
Full write-up of the model

Line score

Q1Q2Q3Q4T
FAU0140721
TLSA71410738

How the points were scored

  • TDQ1 1:470–7

    Jimmy Calloway 5 Yd pass from Baylor Hayes (Owen Carey Kick)

  • TDQ2 13:290–14

    Jimmy Calloway 9 Yd pass from Baylor Hayes (Owen Carey Kick)

  • TDQ2 10:137–14

    Easton Messer 7 Yd pass from Caden Veltkamp (Collin Rogers Kick)

  • TDQ2 9:267–21

    Trequan Jones 78 Yd Run (Owen Carey Kick)

  • TDQ2 4:2614–21

    Brady Tillman III 6 Yd Run (Collin Rogers Kick)

  • TDQ3 10:2714–28

    Trequan Jones 2 Yd Run (Owen Carey Kick)

  • FGQ3 5:2514–31

    Owen Carey 41 Yd Field Goal

  • TDQ4 14:5821–31

    Kelby Valsin 2 Yd pass from Caden Veltkamp (Collin Rogers Kick)

  • TDQ4 14:4621–38

    Damari Alston 75 Yd Run (Owen Carey Kick)

Player stats

Full box — every player, every category.

Passing

FAUC/ATTYDSAVGTDINTQBR
Caden Veltkamp
#10
32/583405.92141.4
Drew Devillier
#18
1/242.000--
Jordan Magwood
#7
1/331.00016.9
Team34/633475.521--

Rushing

FAUCARYDSAVGTDLONG
Brady Tillman III
#22
9303.3111
Ethan Ervin
#21
9212.308
Jordan Magwood
#7
4164.008
Leonard Farrow
#5
9141.604
Caden Veltkamp
#10
900.0011
AJ Johnson
#1
1-6-6.000
Team41751.8111

Receiving

FAURECYDSAVGTDLONG
Kelby Valsin
#2
10949.4119
AJ Johnson
#1
35618.7028
Easton Messer
#8
55010.0117
Tucker Holloway
#3
34816.0027
Owen Pollock
#86
12929.0029
Dominique Henry
#9
3196.3015
Branden Hoch
#0
11818.0018
Brady Tillman III
#22
6183.006
Ethan Ervin
#21
11010.0010
Leonard Farrow
#5
155.005
Team3434710.2229

Fumbles

FAUFUMLOSTREC
Derrick Rogers
#3
001
Team001

Defense

FAUTOTSOLOSACKSTFLPDQB HURTD
Jonathan Bax
#9
8413.5000
Joseph Sipp Jr.
#18
7401000
Chris Tooley III
#8
5300000
Tyson Rooks
#19
5100.5000
Bo Simpson-Nealy
#20
4300000
CJ Doggette Jr.
#1
4200.5000
Leon Hart Jr.
#6
4202.5000
Damarius McGhee
#4
3300000
Khmari Johnson
#7
3200000
Deshaun Batiste
#5
3100000
Jay Crable
#12
2212000
Earl Miller Jr.
#13
2111000
Amar Reynolds
#26
2100000
Jayden Sweeney
#22
2000000
Damon Allen
#0
2000000
Derrick Rogers
#3
1111000
Tucker Holloway
#3
1100000
Tycoolhill Luman
#14
1100000
Tito Nunez
#35
1100000
Hector Chavez
#43
1100000
Travis Jackson
#27
1100000
Wilky Denaud
#2
1000000
JK Johnson
#23
1000000
Josh Roberts
#10
1000000
Team6535412000

Interceptions

FAUINTYDSTD
Tyson Rooks
#19
1380
JK Johnson
#23
1340
Team2720

Kick returns

FAUNOYDSAVGLONGTD
Leonard Farrow
#5
615125.2540
Derrick Rogers
#3
166.060
Team715722.4540

Punt returns

FAUNOYDSAVGLONGTD
Tucker Holloway
#3
11414.0140
Easton Messer
#8
11414.0140
Team22814.0140

Kicking

FAUFGPCTLONGXPPTS
Collin Rogers
#41
0/00.003/33
Team0/00.003/33

Punting

FAUNOYDSAVGTBIn 20LONG
Reed Chandley
#91
624540.81350
Team624540.81350

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

FAUTLSA
1st Downs2518
3rd down efficiency5-252-12
4th down efficiency7-131-3
Total Yards422501
Passing347309
Comp/Att34/6321/33
Yards per pass5.59.4
Rushing75192
Rushing Attempts4130
Yards per rush1.86.4
Penalties7-567-58
Turnovers13
Fumbles lost01
Interceptions thrown12
Possession33:4226:09
Lean · SpreadNot a strong playHit
TLSA -5.5
-108 at lock51%

Model projected FAU 33.60 – 40.14 TLSA at lock · below the strong-play bar (edge -0.9%; strong needs +3%) · informational lean, not a recommended bet

Players

  • Caden Veltkamp · FAU

    32/58 C/ATT · 340 YDS

  • Baylor Hayes · TLSA

    21/32 C/ATT · 309 YDS

  • Brady Tillman III · FAU

    9 CAR · 30 YDS

  • Damari Alston · TLSA

    11 CAR · 92 YDS

  • Kelby Valsin · FAU

    10 REC · 94 YDS

  • Javon Ross · TLSA

    6 REC · 163 YDS

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

FAU vs Tulsa pick result · Nov 14, 2026

Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: NCAAF picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day

Overline Sports

Projections blend power-index ratings with DraftKings lines. Every game carries a computer pick and a tagged DK prop; closed games are graded against those pre-game leans. Statistical estimates, not betting advice. Live scores, clocks, and team pages from ESPN.

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