East Carolina Pirates at Charlotte 49ers
Final · ESPN+
17–16
At lock: projected ECU 29.71–16.73 CLT
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 13, 12:40 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3055976097
- Winner: East Carolina (79%)
- Spread: ECU -12.5 covers (51%)
- Total: Over 45.5 (54%)
- Score error (both teams)14
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: ECU vs CLT
The model
How this number was built
ECU 29.71–16.73 CLT · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexCLT -21.5 vs ECU -3.7 · pred margin -13.7
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -10.7 vs +3.5 · model CLT 16.0–34.9 ECU
- Home field+3.0 pts to CLT
- RecordCLT 1-9 · ECU 6-4
- Market priorBlended 66% toward ECU -12.5 / total 46.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECU | 0 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 17 |
| CLT | 3 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 16 |
How the points were scored
- FGQ1 3:180–3
Aiden Bui 50 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ2 14:537–3
Ashton Gray 7 Yd Run (Noah Perez Kick)
- TDQ2 11:047–10
Jaden Barnes 11 Yd pass from Conner Harrell (Aiden Bui Kick)
- FGQ2 1:097–13
Aiden Bui 27 Yd Field Goal
- FGQ2 0:007–16
Aiden Bui 37 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ3 8:5114–16
Ashton Gray 1 Yd Run (Noah Perez Kick)
- FGQ4 8:4217–16
Noah Perez 43 Yd Field Goal
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
Passing
| ECU | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | QBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Emory Williams #9 | 18/34 | 143 | 4.2 | 0 | 2 | 9.8 |
| Team | 18/34 | 143 | 4.2 | 0 | 2 | -- |
Rushing
| ECU | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Ashton Gray #3 | 24 | 88 | 3.7 | 2 | 26 |
Emory Williams #9 | 12 | 39 | 3.3 | 0 | 23 |
 Michael Allen #21 | 8 | 30 | 3.8 | 0 | 12 |
 Ray Ray Joseph Jr. #1 | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 | 13 |
 Jason Dickerson #24 | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | 2 |
Team | 2 | -8 | -4.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 48 | 164 | 3.4 | 2 | 26 |
Receiving
| ECU | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ray Ray Joseph Jr. #1 | 4 | 36 | 9.0 | 0 | 17 |
 Tyler Johnson #2 | 3 | 32 | 10.7 | 0 | 16 |
Jason Dickerson #24 | 3 | 31 | 10.3 | 0 | 17 |
Ashton Gray #3 | 4 | 20 | 5.0 | 0 | 6 |
 Ja'Keith Hamilton #15 | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 | 10 |
Michael Allen #21 | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 | 8 |
| Team | 18 | 143 | 7.9 | 0 | 17 |
Fumbles
| ECU | FUM | LOST | REC |
|---|---|---|---|
Ray Ray Joseph Jr. #1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Emory Williams #9 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
 Kyler Pearson #0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Team | 5 | 2 | 0 |
Defense
| ECU | TOT | SOLO | SACKS | TFL | PD | QB HUR | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Crews Law #10 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Kieran Davis #5 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
A Ashton Levells-Mitchell #7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Julien Davis #42 | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 DJ Johnson Jr. #11 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Kendrick DuJour #9 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
 Kevon Merrell Jr. #4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Rion Roseborough #88 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Kamaurri McKinley #8 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Jasiyah Robinson #0 | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Preston Carr #44 | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Torin Brazell #98 | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Dominick Moody #55 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Tyler Johnson #2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Zyeir Gamble #3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Christian Peterson #15 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Samuel Dankah #7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Angelo Ross #22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 48 | 28 | 5 | 15 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
Interceptions
| ECU | INT | YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|
DJ Johnson Jr. #11 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
 Jordan Miles #43 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Team | 2 | 23 | 0 |
Kick returns
| ECU | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ray Ray Joseph Jr. #1 | 1 | 28 | 28.0 | 28 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | 28 | 28.0 | 28 | 0 |
Punt returns
| ECU | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kyler Pearson #0 | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 7 | 0 |
 Ethan Wilson #95 | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 7 | 0 |
Kicking
| ECU | FG | PCT | LONG | XP | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Noah Perez #43 | 1/2 | 50.0 | 43 | 2/2 | 5 |
| Team | 1/2 | 50.0 | 43 | 2/2 | 5 |
Punting
| ECU | NO | YDS | AVG | TB | In 20 | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tomas O'Halloran #48 | 3 | 122 | 40.7 | 0 | 2 | 44 |
| Team | 3 | 122 | 40.7 | 0 | 2 | 44 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| ECU | CLT | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Downs | 20 | 13 |
| 3rd down efficiency | 8-18 | 3-14 |
| 4th down efficiency | 0-2 | 1-3 |
| Total Yards | 307 | 200 |
| Passing | 143 | 161 |
| Comp/Att | 18/34 | 15/30 |
| Yards per pass | 4.2 | 5.4 |
| Rushing | 164 | 39 |
| Rushing Attempts | 48 | 29 |
| Yards per rush | 3.4 | 1.3 |
| Penalties | 10-74 | 8-74 |
| Turnovers | 4 | 2 |
| Fumbles lost | 2 | 0 |
| Interceptions thrown | 2 | 2 |
| Possession | 33:07 | 26:53 |
Model projected ECU 29.71 – 16.73 CLT at lock · below the strong-play bar (edge -0.8%; strong needs +3%) · informational lean, not a recommended bet
Emory Williams · ECU
18/34 C/ATT · 143 YDSConner Harrell · CLT
15/29 C/ATT · 161 YDSAshton Gray · ECU
24 CAR · 88 YDSHenry Rutledge · CLT
15 CAR · 66 YDSRay Ray Joseph Jr. · ECU
4 REC · 36 YDSDerrick Eley · CLT
4 REC · 96 YDS
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
East Carolina vs Charlotte pick result · Nov 14, 2026
Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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