Air Force Falcons at Army Black Knights
Final · CBS
24–21
At lock: projected AFA 22.36–27.46 ARMY
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 7:13 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3089531335
- Winner: Army (62%)
- Spread: ARMY -3 covers (53% vs 40%, push 6%)
- Total: Over 44.5 (72%)
- Score error (both teams)9
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: AFA vs ARMY
The model
How this number was built
AFA 22.36–27.46 ARMY · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexARMY -2.8 vs AFA -3.2 · pred margin +3.5
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +3.6 vs +3.1 · model ARMY 28.2–24.3 AFA
- Home field+3.0 pts to ARMY
- RecordARMY 5-4 · AFA 7-2
- Market priorBlended 66% toward ARMY -3.5 / total 43.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFA | 0 | 17 | 0 | 7 | 24 |
| ARMY | 0 | 7 | 14 | 0 | 21 |
How the points were scored
- FGQ2 14:533–0
Carter Cremascoli 21 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ2 12:4010–0
Kemper Hodges 3 Yd Run (Carter Cremascoli Kick)
- TDQ2 3:2310–7
Godspower Nwawuihe 21 Yd Run (Dawson Jones Kick)
- TDQ2 0:0717–7
Evan Medders 4 Yd Run (Carter Cremascoli Kick)
- TDQ3 6:0717–14
Cale Hellums 1 Yd Run (Dawson Jones Kick)
- TDQ3 2:4017–21
Bryson Luter 19 Yd Run (Dawson Jones Kick)
- TDQ4 14:2524–21
Simon Kibbee 24 Yd pass from Evan Medders (Carter Cremascoli Kick)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
Passing
| AFA | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | QBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Evan Medders #5 | 6/8 | 84 | 10.5 | 1 | 0 | 62.4 |
| Team | 6/8 | 84 | 10.5 | 1 | 0 | -- |
Rushing
| AFA | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kemper Hodges #4 | 17 | 119 | 7.0 | 1 | 35 |
 Gage LaDue #28 | 11 | 65 | 5.9 | 0 | 14 |
Evan Medders #5 | 13 | 59 | 4.5 | 1 | 15 |
 Rocco Conti #44 | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 | 9 |
 Owen Allen #2 | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 | 3 |
 Matt Long #3 | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
 Keegan Sack #20 | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
Team | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 52 | 260 | 5.0 | 2 | 35 |
Receiving
| AFA | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Mason Hayes #18 | 2 | 40 | 20.0 | 0 | 25 |
 Simon Kibbee #80 | 2 | 31 | 15.5 | 1 | 24 |
Matt Long #3 | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 | 8 |
| Team | 6 | 84 | 14.0 | 1 | 25 |
Defense
| AFA | TOT | SOLO | SACKS | TFL | PD | QB HUR | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jaylin Reese #45 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Korey Johnson #2 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Brody Bujnoch #33 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Roger Jones Jr. #5 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jerome Drain #10 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Max Mustell #36 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Dallas Daley #8 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Blake Fletcher #6 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jayden Oquendo #99 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Vinnie Canosa #51 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Chaz Barnett #59 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Isaac Hubert #30 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0.5 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Andrew Tillett #93 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Noah Daniels #95 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Antonio Menard #48 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 63 | 25 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Interceptions
| AFA | INT | YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|
Korey Johnson #2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Kicking
| AFA | FG | PCT | LONG | XP | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Carter Cremascoli #90 | 1/1 | 100.0 | 21 | 3/3 | 6 |
| Team | 1/1 | 100.0 | 21 | 3/3 | 6 |
Punting
| AFA | NO | YDS | AVG | TB | In 20 | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will Duncan #94 | 2 | 80 | 40.0 | 0 | 1 | 56 |
| Team | 2 | 80 | 40.0 | 0 | 1 | 56 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| AFA | ARMY | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Downs | 18 | 15 |
| 3rd down efficiency | 5-11 | 4-11 |
| 4th down efficiency | 0-2 | 3-4 |
| Total Yards | 344 | 220 |
| Passing | 84 | 38 |
| Comp/Att | 6/8 | 5/10 |
| Yards per pass | 10.5 | 3.8 |
| Rushing | 260 | 182 |
| Rushing Attempts | 52 | 44 |
| Yards per rush | 5.0 | 4.1 |
| Penalties | 1-5 | 1-10 |
| Turnovers | 0 | 1 |
| Fumbles lost | 0 | 0 |
| Interceptions thrown | 0 | 1 |
| Possession | 30:23 | 29:37 |
At lock AFA 22.36–27.46 ARMY · ARMY by 5.1 pts vs ARMY -3.5 · 51% is the confidence saved at lock
MissEvan Medders · AFA
6/8 C/ATT · 84 YDSCale Hellums · ARMY
5/10 C/ATT · 38 YDSKemper Hodges · AFA
17 CAR · 119 YDSGodspower Nwawuihe · ARMY
18 CAR · 82 YDSMason Hayes · AFA
2 REC · 40 YDSTobi Olawole · ARMY
2 REC · 18 YDS
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Air Force vs Army pick result · Nov 7, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is ARMY -3.5, with a 51% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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