NCAAFFinalYulman Stadium

Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Tulane Green Wave

Final · ESPNU

60–10

TulsaTulane

Final

Tulsa Golden Hurricane

5-4 · W2

336 PF · 226 PA

Final

Tulane Green Wave

4-5 · W1

210 PF · 280 PA

TLSA 48%TULN 52%

At lock: projected TLSA 24.82–25.53 TULN

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 5, 11:17 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3072753716

Missed · off by 51

Most typical sim

TLSA 25 – TULN 26

Final

TLSA 60 – TULN 10

Winner: Tulane (52%)
Spread: TULN +2.5 covers (55%)
Total: Over 49.5 (54%)
Score error (both teams)51

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: TLSA vs TULN

The model

How this number was built

TLSA 24.82–25.53 TULN · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
TULN -9.9 vs TLSA -0.1 · pred margin -4.1
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -1.6 vs +3.6 · model TULN 24.3–29.3 TLSA
Home field
+3.0 pts to TULN
Record
TULN 4-5 · TLSA 5-4
Market prior
Blended 66% toward TLSA -3 / total 50.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
TLSA	7	25	14	14	60
TULN	0	0	0	10	10

How the points were scored

TDQ1 9:467–0
Oran Singleton Jr. 3 Yd pass from Baylor Hayes (Owen Carey Kick)
FGQ2 10:4810–0
Owen Carey 26 Yd Field Goal
TDQ2 5:2717–0
Jimmy Calloway 7 Yd pass from Baylor Hayes (Owen Carey Kick)
TDQ2 4:1424–0
Javon Ross 11 Yd Run (Owen Carey Kick)
TDQ2 0:5332–0
Oran Singleton Jr. 3 Yd pass from Baylor Hayes (Damari Alston Run for Two-Point Conversion)
TDQ3 10:2239–0
Oran Singleton Jr. 27 Yd pass from Baylor Hayes (Owen Carey Kick)
TDQ3 4:1046–0
Damari Alston 6 Yd Run (Owen Carey Kick)
FGQ4 13:0846–3
Cooper Helmke 38 Yd Field Goal
TDQ4 11:5353–3
Seth Davis 31 Yd Run (Marlon Hauck Kick)
TDQ4 3:0860–3
Sevion Morrison 3 Yd Run (Marlon Hauck Kick)
TDQ4 0:0160–10
Bredell Richardson 4 Yd pass from Dagan Bruno (Cooper Helmke Kick)

Player stats

Full box — every player, every category.

Passing

TLSA	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	QBR
Baylor Hayes #10	26/33	338	10.2	4	91.0
Dexter Williams II #5	0/1	0	0.0	0	--
Team	26/34	338	9.9	4	--

Rushing

TLSA	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Damari Alston #6	14	52	3.7	1	8
Seth Davis #23	4	45	11.3	1	31
Trequan Jones #3	8	44	5.5	0	10
Javon Ross #9	3	20	6.7	1	11
Dexter Williams II #5	2	16	8.0	0	16
Baylor Hayes #10	2	16	8.0	0	10
Sevion Morrison #28	3	14	4.7	1	8
Jimmy Calloway #7	2	11	5.5	0	8
DJ McKinney #4	2	5	2.5	0	4
Grayson Tempest #19	1	2	2.0	0	2
Team	1	-1	-1.0	0	0
Team	42	224	5.3	4	31

Receiving

TLSA	REC	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Oran Singleton Jr. #2	13	177	13.6	3	32
Jimmy Calloway #7	5	55	11.0	1	22
Javon Ross #9	1	32	32.0	0	32
Damari Alston #6	2	24	12.0	0	16
Trequan Jones #3	1	18	18.0	0	18
Seth Davis #23	1	17	17.0	0	17
David Wells Jr. #1	1	13	13.0	0	13
DJ McKinney #4	1	3	3.0	0	3
Luke Tevis #86	1	-1	-1.0	0	0
Team	26	338	13.0	4	32

Defense

TLSA	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HUR
Jaylen George #11	6	4	1.5	2	0	0
Zane Woodham #27	6	3	1	1.5	0	0
Thomas Davis #15	5	2	1.5	1.5	0	2
Dedaunte Scott #12	5	2	0	0.5	0	0
Zach Williams #1	4	3	0	0	0	0
Dax Collins #9	4	3	0	1	0	0
Sam Stone #25	4	1	0	0	1	0
Rylan Leathers #19	3	3	0	0	0	0
Chris Thompson Jr. #6	3	2	0	1.5	0	0
Hudson Ball #32	3	2	0	0	0	0
Devin Hightower #24	3	1	0	0.5	0	0
JD Drew #3	3	1	0	1	1	0
Tyson Williams #4	3	1	0	0	0	0
Willie Goodwyn #23	3	0	0	0.5	0	0
Ty Williams #22	2	2	0	0	0	0
Devin Robinson #2	2	2	0	0	0	0
Arias Nash #10	2	1	1	1	0	0
Reilarean Phillips #42	2	1	0	0	0	0
Ty Anderson #50	2	0	0	0.5	0	0
RJ McIntosh #20	2	0	0	0	0	0
Kyran Duhon #0	1	1	1	1	0	0
Caldra Williford #16	1	1	0	0	0	0
Micah Tease #8	1	1	0	0	0	0
Seth Davis #23	1	1	0	0	0	0
Tyler Rich #58	1	1	0	0	0	0
Aquavious Dunbar #21	1	1	0	0	0	0
Ashton Williams #5	1	1	0	0	0	0
Kadin Fossung #44	1	1	0	0	0	0
Dailen Howard #88	1	1	0	0	0	0
Jayden Madkins #90	1	0	0	0.5	0	0
Team	77	43	6	13	2	2

Interceptions

TLSA	INT	YDS
JD Drew #3	1	23
NuNu Campbell #13	1	16
Team	2	39

Punt returns

TLSA	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG	TD
Oran Singleton Jr. #2	1	13	13.0	13	0
Team	1	13	13.0	13	0

Kicking

TLSA	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Owen Carey #10	1/1	100.0	26	5/5	8
Marlon Hauck #18	0/0	0.0	0	2/2	2
Team	1/1	100.0	26	7/7	10

Punting

TLSA	NO	YDS	AVG	TB	In 20	LONG
Max Tulen #29	2	49	24.5	0	1	40
Team	2	49	24.5	0	1	40

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	TLSA	TULN
1st Downs	31	15
3rd down efficiency	5-10	2-12
4th down efficiency	2-2	1-3
Total Yards	562	204
Passing	338	112
Comp/Att	26/34	15/25
Yards per pass	9.9	4.5
Rushing	224	92
Rushing Attempts	42	40
Yards per rush	5.3	2.3
Penalties	2-10	3-17
Turnovers	0	2
Fumbles lost	0	0
Interceptions thrown	0	2
Possession	32:25	27:35

Computer pick · Spread

TULN +1.5

53%

At lock TLSA 24.82–25.53 TULN · TULN by 0.7 pts vs TULN +1.5 · 53% is the confidence saved at lock

Miss

Players

Baylor Hayes · TLSA
26/33 C/ATT · 338 YDS
Trace Johnson · TULN
11/19 C/ATT · 69 YDS
Damari Alston · TLSA
14 CAR · 52 YDS
Johnnie Daniels · TULN
10 CAR · 49 YDS
Oran Singleton Jr. · TLSA
13 REC · 177 YDS
Destyn Hill · TULN
4 REC · 55 YDS

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Tulsa vs Tulane pick result · Nov 7, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is TULN +1.5, with a 53% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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