NCAAFFinalDATCU Stadium

Rice Owls at North Texas Mean Green

Final · ESPNU

23–52

RiceNorth Texas

Final

Rice Owls

1-8 · L9

208 PF · 326 PA

Final

North Texas Mean Green

7-2 · L1

418 PF · 313 PA

RICE 13%UNT 87%

At lock: projected RICE 23.10–41.38 UNT

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 7:13 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3123086573

Winner called · off by 11

Most typical sim

RICE 23 – UNT 41

Final

RICE 23 – UNT 52

Winner: North Texas (87%)
Spread: UNT -17.5 covers (51%)
Total: Over 64.5 (52%)
Score error (both teams)11

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: RICE vs UNT

The model

How this number was built

RICE 23.10–41.38 UNT · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
UNT +3.8 vs RICE -14.8 · pred margin +16.3
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +9.6 vs -6.4 · model UNT 47.4–19.2 RICE
Home field
+3.0 pts to UNT
Record
UNT 7-2 · RICE 1-8
Market prior
Blended 80% toward UNT -14.5 / total 65.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
RICE	0	7	10	6	23
UNT	10	0	21	21	52

How the points were scored

FGQ1 6:030–3
Dominic De Freitas 37 Yd Field Goal
TDQ1 2:280–10
Jahiem White 3 Yd Run (Dominic De Freitas Kick)
TDQ2 4:547–10
Will Swartz 36 Yd pass from Gael Ochoa (Tommy Bauchiero Kick)
TDQ3 11:177–17
Tayven Jackson 6 Yd Run (Dominic De Freitas Kick)
TDQ3 8:4214–17
Tyvonn Byars 2 Yd Run (Tommy Bauchiero Kick)
TDQ3 4:2214–24
Jahiem White 1 Yd Run (Dominic De Freitas Kick)
TDQ3 3:0014–31
Dalton Carnes 19 Yd pass from Tayven Jackson (Dominic De Freitas Kick)
FGQ3 0:0717–31
Tommy Bauchiero 30 Yd Field Goal
TDQ4 14:4317–38
Jahiem White 60 Yd Run (Dominic De Freitas Kick)
TDQ4 6:0217–45
Tayven Jackson 2 Yd Run (Dominic De Freitas Kick)
TDQ4 1:5517–52
Brendon Haygood 4 Yd Run (Dominic De Freitas Kick)
TDQ4 0:0023–52
Patrick Crayton Jr. 7 Yd Run

Player stats

Full box — every player, every category.

Passing

RICE	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	QBR
Gael Ochoa #4	8/13	172	13.2	1	1	15.9
Patrick Crayton Jr. #15	0/4	0	0.0	0	0	93.2
Team	8/17	172	10.1	1	1	--

Rushing

RICE	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
D'Andre Hardeman Jr. #28	7	73	10.4	0	56
Gael Ochoa #4	17	47	2.8	0	27
Patrick Crayton Jr. #15	4	40	10.0	1	17
Colin Leahey #8	3	35	11.7	0	28
Tyvonn Byars #26	8	32	4.0	1	8
Max Mosey #13	3	17	5.7	0	8
Jacurri Brown #11	6	17	2.8	0	6
Team	48	261	5.4	2	56

Receiving

RICE	REC	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Jacurri Brown #11	2	55	27.5	0	42
Preston Zinter #9	2	47	23.5	0	29
Will Swartz #84	1	36	36.0	1	36
Max Mosey #13	2	20	10.0	0	11
D'Andre Hardeman Jr. #28	1	14	14.0	0	14
Team	8	172	21.5	1	42

Fumbles

RICE	FUM	LOST
Tyvonn Byars #26	1	1
Jacurri Brown #11	1	0
Gael Ochoa #4	1	0
Team	3	1

Defense

RICE	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD
AJ Brown #7	6	3	0	0	1
Stone Combs #33	5	4	0	0	1
Koa Akui #3	5	2	1	1	0
Jamir Benjamin #12	4	3	0	0	2
Daveon Hook #0	4	2	0	0	0
Bailey Fletcher #20	4	2	0	0	0
Cooper King #44	3	2	0	0	0
Jo Chavez #2	3	1	0	0	0
Austin Harnetiaux #54	3	0	0	0.5	0
Seth Clarke #56	2	2	0	1	0
Braden Bays #94	2	1	1	1	0
Aquantis Clemmons #57	2	1	0	0	0
Dillan Botts #96	2	1	0	0	0
Elijah Brown #35	2	1	0	0	0
Joseph Mutombo #8	2	0	0	0.5	0
Barry Jackson Jr. #7	1	1	0	0	0
Tariq May #13	1	1	0	0	0
Ahran Ogbor #18	1	1	0	0	0
Luca Akirtava #92	1	1	0	0	0
Kyren Condoll #10	0	0	0	0	1
Team	53	29	2	4	5

Kick returns

RICE	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG	TD
Max Mosey #13	1	0	0.0	0	0
Team	1	0	0.0	0	0

Punt returns

RICE	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG	TD
Max Mosey #13	2	5	2.5	5	0
Team	2	5	2.5	5	0

Kicking

RICE	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Tommy Bauchiero #49	1/2	50.0	30	2/2	5
Team	1/2	50.0	30	2/2	5

Punting

RICE	NO	YDS	AVG	TB	In 20	LONG
Charlie Durkin #29	4	152	38.0	0	2	51
Team	4	152	38.0	0	2	51

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	RICE	UNT
1st Downs	19	26
3rd down efficiency	4-11	6-11
4th down efficiency	1-1	1-1
Total Yards	433	495
Passing	172	303
Comp/Att	8/17	18/31
Yards per pass	10.1	9.8
Rushing	261	192
Rushing Attempts	48	33
Yards per rush	5.4	5.8
Penalties	7-77	9-98
Turnovers	2	0
Fumbles lost	1	0
Interceptions thrown	1	0
Possession	32:10	27:50

Computer pick · Spread

UNT -16.5

53%

At lock RICE 23.10–41.38 UNT · UNT by 18.3 pts vs UNT -16.5 · 53% is the confidence saved at lock

Hit

Players

Gael Ochoa · RICE
8/13 C/ATT · 172 YDS
Tayven Jackson · UNT
18/31 C/ATT · 303 YDS
D'Andre Hardeman Jr. · RICE
7 CAR · 73 YDS
Jahiem White · UNT
21 CAR · 139 YDS
Jacurri Brown · RICE
2 REC · 55 YDS
Justin Stevenson · UNT
5 REC · 117 YDS

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Rice vs North Texas pick result · Nov 7, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is UNT -16.5, with a 53% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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