North Texas Mean Green at Navy Midshipmen
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UNT 31.78–28.99 NAVY
Projected UNT 31.78–28.99 NAVY
Model vs market
Gap: -4.0 margin, +0.8 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.
Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: UNT vs NAVY
The model
How this number was built
UNT 31.78–28.99 NAVY · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexNAVY -5.5 vs UNT +2.1 · pred margin -2.8
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +1.8 vs +8.6 · model NAVY 27.9–35.3 UNT
- Home field+3.0 pts to NAVY
- RecordNAVY 2-4 · UNT 4-2
- Market priorBlended 68% toward UNT -1.5 / total 60.5
Season leaders
Tayven JacksonPass 143/198, 1868 YDS, 15 TD, 4 INT
Jahiem WhiteRush 96 CAR, 687 YDS, 9 TD
Justin StevensonRec 33 REC, 453 YDS, 5 TD
Jackson GutierrezPass 25/54, 559 YDS, 6 TD, 1 INT- Jackson GutierrezRush 123 CAR, 644 YDS, 9 TD
Jordan CollinsRec 5 REC, 189 YDS, 3 TD
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| UNT | NAVY | |
|---|---|---|
| Points Per Game | 42.2 | 28.2 |
| Total Yards | 533.8 | 414.0 |
| Yards Passing | 347.0 | 115.5 |
| Yards Rushing | 186.8 | 298.5 |
| Points Allowed Per Game | 29.2 | 25.8 |
| Yards Allowed | 355.8 | 346.5 |
| Pass Yards Allowed | 213.2 | 247.7 |
| Rush Yards Allowed | 142.7 | 98.8 |
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
North Texas vs Navy prediction · Oct 24, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is UNT -1.5, with a 53% model probability. The model projects North Texas 31.8, Navy 29.0. Model win probability: Navy 43%, North Texas 57%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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