Fresno State Bulldogs at Texas State Bobcats
Final · CW
35–37
At lock: projected FRES 25.55–34.06 TXST
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 13, 3:20 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1030506630
- Winner: Texas St (70%)
- Spread: FRES +9.5 covers (52%)
- Total: Over 59.5 (51%)
- Score error (both teams)12
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: FRES vs TXST
The model
How this number was built
FRES 25.55–34.06 TXST · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexTXST +3.0 vs FRES +0.5 · pred margin +9.5
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +6.2 vs +4.5 · model TXST 32.4–26.4 FRES
- Home field+3.0 pts to TXST
- RecordTXST 6-4 · FRES 5-5
- Market priorBlended 66% toward TXST -11.5 / total 60.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FRES | 7 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 35 |
| TXST | 21 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 37 |
How the points were scored
- TDQ1 9:180–7
Zechariah Sample 12 Yd pass from Brad Jackson (Jacob Bonilla Kick)
- TDQ1 9:037–7
Rayshon Luke 100 Yd Kickoff Return (Manaki Watanabe Kick)
- TDQ1 4:557–14
Davian Jackson 4 Yd Run (Jacob Bonilla Kick)
- TDQ1 0:007–21
Zechariah Sample 30 Yd pass from Brad Jackson (Jacob Bonilla Kick)
- TDQ2 9:4014–21
Brock Lium 2 Yd pass from Jayden Mandal (Manaki Watanabe Kick)
- TDQ2 8:3214–28
Chris Dawn Jr. 59 Yd pass from Brad Jackson (Jacob Bonilla Kick)
- TDQ2 1:4921–28
Bryson Donelson 1 Yd Run (Manaki Watanabe Kick)
- FGQ3 5:1021–31
Jacob Bonilla 35 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ3 0:1628–31
Ryan Kobzeff 19 Yd Run (Manaki Watanabe Kick)
- TDQ4 10:3335–31
Bryson Donelson 2 Yd Run (Manaki Watanabe Kick)
- TDQ4 1:0035–37
Davian Jackson 2 Yd Run (Jacob Bonilla PAT blocked)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
Passing
| FRES | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | QBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jayden Mandal #7 | 20/34 | 250 | 7.4 | 1 | 1 | 55.1 |
| Team | 20/34 | 250 | 7.4 | 1 | 1 | -- |
Rushing
| FRES | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Bryson Donelson #6 | 10 | 24 | 2.4 | 2 | 5 |
 Ryan Kobzeff #40 | 1 | 19 | 19.0 | 1 | 19 |
 Rayshon Luke #2 | 9 | 19 | 2.1 | 0 | 8 |
 Ezekiel Avit #0 | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 | 8 |
Jayden Mandal #7 | 6 | -10 | -1.7 | 0 | 9 |
| Team | 27 | 60 | 2.2 | 3 | 19 |
Receiving
| FRES | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Josiah Freeman #5 | 6 | 69 | 11.5 | 0 | 20 |
 Gavin Correia #86 | 3 | 47 | 15.7 | 0 | 19 |
 Jaylen Garrison #80 | 1 | 30 | 30.0 | 0 | 30 |
 Jake Appleget #87 | 2 | 29 | 14.5 | 0 | 18 |
Rayshon Luke #2 | 3 | 26 | 8.7 | 0 | 31 |
Ezekiel Avit #0 | 1 | 24 | 24.0 | 0 | 24 |
 Keynan Cotton #25 | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 | 13 |
Bryson Donelson #6 | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 | 7 |
 Brock Lium #89 | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Team | 20 | 250 | 12.5 | 1 | 31 |
Fumbles
| FRES | FUM | LOST | REC |
|---|---|---|---|
Jayden Mandal #7 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
 Gerayas Grimes #27 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Team | 2 | 1 | 1 |
Defense
| FRES | TOT | SOLO | SACKS | TFL | PD | QB HUR | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Gerayas Grimes #27 | 14 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Tytus Khajavi #35 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 K'vion Thunderbird #1 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Simeon Harris #5 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Croix Stewart #24 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Martin Owusu #8 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Tommy Nix #36 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Jahzon Jacks #6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Logan Studt #18 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Mordecai Hines #89 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Dylan Hampsten #11 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Kiontre Harris #31 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Loyall Mouzon #7 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Ethan Tierney #4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Jake Appleget #87 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Andre Cobb #2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Taylor Powell #33 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Cam Cole #13 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Isaiah Lucero #38 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Brendan Huddleston #55 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Maverick Noonan #95 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Deijon Laffitte #0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Logan Goodspeed #99 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Andrew Chavez #41 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rayshon Luke #2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Team | 82 | 38 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
Kick returns
| FRES | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rayshon Luke #2 | 2 | 135 | 67.5 | 100 | 1 |
 Jordan Malau'ulu #10 | 1 | 18 | 18.0 | 18 | 0 |
| Team | 3 | 153 | 51.0 | 100 | 1 |
Kicking
| FRES | FG | PCT | LONG | XP | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Manaki Watanabe #38 | 0/1 | 0.0 | 0 | 5/5 | 5 |
| Team | 0/1 | 0.0 | 0 | 5/5 | 5 |
Punting
| FRES | NO | YDS | AVG | TB | In 20 | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Nick Verdugo #41 | 2 | 75 | 37.5 | 0 | 2 | 44 |
| Team | 2 | 75 | 37.5 | 0 | 2 | 44 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| FRES | TXST | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Downs | 21 | 28 |
| 3rd down efficiency | 8-13 | 8-14 |
| 4th down efficiency | 1-1 | 2-2 |
| Total Yards | 310 | 550 |
| Passing | 250 | 355 |
| Comp/Att | 20/34 | 25/33 |
| Yards per pass | 7.4 | 10.8 |
| Rushing | 60 | 195 |
| Rushing Attempts | 27 | 46 |
| Yards per rush | 2.2 | 4.2 |
| Penalties | 1-15 | 9-91 |
| Turnovers | 2 | 1 |
| Fumbles lost | 1 | 1 |
| Interceptions thrown | 1 | 0 |
| Possession | 28:57 | 31:03 |
Model projected FRES 25.55 – 34.06 TXST at lock · below the strong-play bar (edge -1.1%; strong needs +3%) · informational lean, not a recommended bet
Jayden Mandal · FRES
20/34 C/ATT · 250 YDSBrad Jackson · TXST
25/33 C/ATT · 355 YDSBryson Donelson · FRES
10 CAR · 24 YDSTorrance Burgess Jr. · TXST
21 CAR · 107 YDSJosiah Freeman · FRES
6 REC · 69 YDSBeau Sparks · TXST
9 REC · 115 YDS
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Fresno St vs Texas St pick result · Nov 14, 2026
Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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