Utah State Aggies at San Diego State Aztecs
Final · USA Net
13–30
At lock: projected USU 22.49–20.30 SDSU
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 13, 9:00 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1013729011
- Winner: Utah State (55%)
- Spread: USU -2.5 covers (52%)
- Total: Under 43.5 (53%)
- Score error (both teams)20
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: USU vs SDSU
The model
How this number was built
USU 22.49–20.30 SDSU · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexSDSU -9.4 vs USU -4.1 · pred margin -2.5
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -0.8 vs +1.2 · model SDSU 23.5–23.3 USU
- Home field+3.0 pts to SDSU
- RecordSDSU 5-5 · USU 4-6
- Market priorBlended 66% toward USU -3 / total 43.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USU | 7 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 13 |
| SDSU | 3 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 30 |
How the points were scored
- TDQ1 8:297–0
Nehemiah Washington 0 Yd Fumble Recovery (Kian Afrookhteh Kick)
- FGQ1 4:107–3
Cooper DiLeva 31 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ2 1:257–10
Lucky Sutton 4 Yd Run (Cooper DiLeva Kick)
- TDQ3 7:037–17
Kai Wallin 20 Yd pass from Cooper DiLeva (Cooper DiLeva Kick)
- FGQ3 2:547–20
Cooper DiLeva 42 Yd Field Goal
- FGQ4 12:067–23
Cooper DiLeva 34 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ4 2:127–30
Lucky Sutton 2 Yd Run (Cooper DiLeva Kick)
- TDQ4 1:1013–30
Anthony Garcia 5 Yd pass from McCae Hillstead (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
Passing
| USU | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | QBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 McCae Hillstead #2 | 17/34 | 139 | 4.1 | 1 | 0 | 12.3 |
| Team | 17/34 | 139 | 4.1 | 1 | 0 | -- |
Rushing
| USU | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Noah White #23 | 7 | 36 | 5.1 | 0 | 8 |
 Nehemiah Washington #28 | 7 | 21 | 3.0 | 1 | 7 |
 Sesi Vailahi #10 | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 | 5 |
 Javon Robinson #0 | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | 2 |
McCae Hillstead #2 | 12 | -3 | -0.3 | 0 | 9 |
| Team | 29 | 61 | 2.1 | 1 | 9 |
Receiving
| USU | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Anthony Garcia #1 | 3 | 36 | 12.0 | 1 | 21 |
 Demick Starling #6 | 1 | 22 | 22.0 | 0 | 22 |
Javon Robinson #0 | 3 | 22 | 7.3 | 0 | 16 |
 Kache Kaio #18 | 3 | 22 | 7.3 | 0 | 13 |
Noah White #23 | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 | 6 |
 Kaina Watson #12 | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 | 7 |
 Collin Remenowsky #11 | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 | 9 |
| Team | 17 | 139 | 8.2 | 1 | 22 |
Fumbles
| USU | FUM | LOST | REC |
|---|---|---|---|
McCae Hillstead #2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Defense
| USU | TOT | SOLO | SACKS | TFL | PD | QB HUR | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Bobby Arnold #7 | 10 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 D'Angelo Mayes #15 | 9 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
 Brevin Hamblin #4 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
 Carson Tujague #28 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 David Kabongo #8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Tyree Morris #9 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Asher Cunningham #11 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
 Bronson Olevao Jr. #14 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
 Markie Grant #5 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Joshua Papu #92 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Kaina Watson #12 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Kye Stokes #2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Bryson Taylor #24 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Paxton Naegle #10 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Viliami Tapa'atoutai | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 BJ Diakite | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Ronnie Mageo #90 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Mataira Brown #16 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 72 | 44 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 0 |
Interceptions
| USU | INT | YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|
D'Angelo Mayes #15 | 1 | 29 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | 29 | 0 |
Kick returns
| USU | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Noah White #23 | 1 | 23 | 23.0 | 23 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | 23 | 23.0 | 23 | 0 |
Punt returns
| USU | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bobby Arnold #7 | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 12 | 0 |
| Team | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 12 | 0 |
Kicking
| USU | FG | PCT | LONG | XP | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kian Afrookhteh #19 | 0/0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1/1 | 1 |
| Team | 0/0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1/1 | 1 |
Punting
| USU | NO | YDS | AVG | TB | In 20 | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Landon Rehkow #3 | 8 | 303 | 37.9 | 0 | 1 | 44 |
| Team | 8 | 303 | 37.9 | 0 | 1 | 44 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| USU | SDSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Downs | 14 | 21 |
| 3rd down efficiency | 3-14 | 8-16 |
| 4th down efficiency | 0-2 | 1-1 |
| Total Yards | 200 | 410 |
| Passing | 139 | 200 |
| Comp/Att | 17/34 | 17/35 |
| Yards per pass | 4.1 | 5.7 |
| Rushing | 61 | 210 |
| Rushing Attempts | 29 | 43 |
| Yards per rush | 2.1 | 4.9 |
| Penalties | 2-9 | 10-100 |
| Turnovers | 0 | 1 |
| Fumbles lost | 0 | 0 |
| Interceptions thrown | 0 | 1 |
| Possession | 27:55 | 32:05 |
Model projected USU 22.49 – 20.30 SDSU at lock · below the strong-play bar (edge -1.8%; strong needs +3%) · informational lean, not a recommended bet
McCae Hillstead · USU
17/34 C/ATT · 139 YDSStone Saunders · SDSU
16/34 C/ATT · 180 YDSNoah White · USU
7 CAR · 36 YDSJavion Kinnard · SDSU
19 CAR · 113 YDSAnthony Garcia · USU
3 REC · 36 YDSNathan Acevedo · SDSU
8 REC · 92 YDS
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Utah State vs San Diego St pick result · Nov 14, 2026
Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAF picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day