Oregon State Beavers at #17 Boise State Broncos
Final · USA Net
41–46
At lock: projected ORST 26.14–39.25 BOIS
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 13, 5:37 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 996951392
- Winner: Boise St (79%)
- Spread: ORST +14.5 covers (54%)
- Total: Over 63.5 (57%)
- Score error (both teams)22
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: ORST vs BOIS
The model
How this number was built
ORST 26.14–39.25 BOIS · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexBOIS +11.7 vs ORST +1.6 · pred margin +15.8
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +8.7 vs +3.5 · model BOIS 37.1–25.7 ORST
- Home field+3.0 pts to BOIS
- RecordBOIS 9-1 · ORST 5-5
- Market priorBlended 66% toward BOIS -17.5 / total 65.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORST | 7 | 13 | 7 | 14 | 41 |
| BOIS | 15 | 17 | 0 | 14 | 46 |
How the points were scored
- TDQ1 12:077–0
Jesse Legree 15 Yd pass from Maalik Murphy (Caleb Ojeda Kick)
- TDQ1 3:527–7
Rasean Jones 19 Yd pass from Maddux Madsen (Canaan Moore Kick)
- TDQ1 1:477–15
Travis Anderson 58 Yd Interception Return (Zeke Martinez Pass to Matt Wagner for Two-Point Conversion)
- TDQ2 12:2213–15
Cornell Hatcher Jr. 2 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
- TDQ2 8:4613–22
Rasean Jones 16 Yd pass from Maddux Madsen (Canaan Moore Kick)
- TDQ2 2:1013–29
Sire Gaines 4 Yd Run (Canaan Moore Kick)
- TDQ2 0:4320–29
Jake Reichle 1 Yd Run (Caleb Ojeda Kick)
- FGQ2 0:0520–32
Canaan Moore 38 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ3 5:4027–32
Jake Reichle 5 Yd Run (Caleb Ojeda Kick)
- TDQ4 14:1327–39
Matt Wagner 9 Yd pass from Maddux Madsen (Canaan Moore Kick)
- TDQ4 10:3734–39
Cynai Thomas 12 Yd pass from Maalik Murphy (Caleb Ojeda Kick)
- TDQ4 6:1634–46
Rasean Jones 26 Yd pass from Maddux Madsen (Canaan Moore Kick)
- TDQ4 4:2541–46
Eric Olsen 20 Yd pass from Maalik Murphy (Caleb Ojeda Kick)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
Passing
| ORST | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | QBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Maalik Murphy #6 | 31/39 | 396 | 10.2 | 3 | 1 | 87.7 |
| Team | 31/39 | 396 | 10.2 | 3 | 1 | -- |
Rushing
| ORST | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jake Reichle #34 | 11 | 36 | 3.3 | 2 | 8 |
 Cornell Hatcher Jr. #3 | 9 | 36 | 4.0 | 1 | 8 |
 Kourdey Glass #25 | 4 | 29 | 7.3 | 0 | 22 |
 AJ Newberry #23 | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 | 6 |
Maalik Murphy #6 | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 28 | 110 | 3.9 | 3 | 22 |
Receiving
| ORST | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jesse Legree #12 | 12 | 140 | 11.7 | 1 | 39 |
 Adonis McDaniel #1 | 4 | 92 | 23.0 | 0 | 40 |
 Eric Olsen #80 | 4 | 67 | 16.8 | 1 | 36 |
 DeCorion Temple #8 | 2 | 46 | 23.0 | 0 | 26 |
 Cynai Thomas #16 | 4 | 21 | 5.3 | 1 | 12 |
Kourdey Glass #25 | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 | 9 |
Cornell Hatcher Jr. #3 | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 | 7 |
 Aeryn Hampton #7 | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | 6 |
| Team | 31 | 396 | 12.8 | 3 | 40 |
Fumbles
| ORST | FUM | LOST | REC |
|---|---|---|---|
 Aiden Sullivan #2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Team | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Defense
| ORST | TOT | SOLO | SACKS | TFL | PD | QB HUR | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Aiden Sullivan #2 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 1.5 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Jaheim Patterson #6 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Gyriece Goodman #12 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Trey Glasper #19 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Drake Vickers #36 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
 Jabari Odoemenem #3 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Isaiah Houi #22 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Takari Hickle #44 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Harlem Howard #0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Logan Knapp #10 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Dylan Layne #1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 TJ Crandall #4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Daniel Matagi #90 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Jake Reichle #34 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Tevita Pome'e #59 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Niklas Fisher #99 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jaylen Hill #91 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jacob Schuster #62 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jadyn Oh #98 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
M Marquis Raspberry #26 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Tyler Bailey #97 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 68 | 28 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Kick returns
| ORST | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tre Garrison #22 | 1 | 24 | 24.0 | 24 | 0 |
Logan Knapp #10 | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 12 | 0 |
| Team | 2 | 36 | 18.0 | 24 | 0 |
Kicking
| ORST | FG | PCT | LONG | XP | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Caleb Ojeda #28 | 0/1 | 0.0 | 0 | 5/5 | 5 |
| Team | 0/1 | 0.0 | 0 | 5/5 | 5 |
Punting
| ORST | NO | YDS | AVG | TB | In 20 | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 AJ Winsor #38 | 2 | 94 | 47.0 | 0 | 0 | 52 |
| Team | 2 | 94 | 47.0 | 0 | 0 | 52 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| ORST | BOIS | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Downs | 26 | 26 |
| 3rd down efficiency | 6-9 | 5-12 |
| 4th down efficiency | 0-0 | 2-2 |
| Total Yards | 506 | 520 |
| Passing | 396 | 371 |
| Comp/Att | 31/39 | 23/32 |
| Yards per pass | 10.2 | 11.6 |
| Rushing | 110 | 149 |
| Rushing Attempts | 28 | 34 |
| Yards per rush | 3.9 | 4.4 |
| Penalties | 4-35 | 7-56 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 1 |
| Fumbles lost | 0 | 1 |
| Interceptions thrown | 1 | 0 |
| Possession | 27:27 | 32:33 |
Model projected ORST 26.14 – 39.25 BOIS at lock · below the strong-play bar (edge -1.7%; strong needs +3%) · informational lean, not a recommended bet
Maalik Murphy · ORST
31/39 C/ATT · 396 YDSMaddux Madsen · BOIS
23/32 C/ATT · 371 YDSJake Reichle · ORST
11 CAR · 36 YDSSire Gaines · BOIS
11 CAR · 73 YDSJesse Legree · ORST
12 REC · 140 YDSRasean Jones · BOIS
11 REC · 230 YDS
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Oregon St vs Boise St pick result · Nov 14, 2026
Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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