Texas State Bobcats at Oregon State Beavers
Final · CW
42–21
At lock: projected TXST 31.32–37.28 ORST
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 11:38 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1097617106
- Winner: Oregon St (64%)
- Spread: TXST +6.5 covers (51%)
- Total: Under 70.5 (57%)
- Score error (both teams)27
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: TXST vs ORST
The model
How this number was built
TXST 31.32–37.28 ORST · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexORST +1.6 vs TXST +3.0 · pred margin +2.9
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +3.5 vs +6.2 · model ORST 32.8–33.7 TXST
- Home field+3.0 pts to ORST
- RecordORST 5-4 · TXST 5-4
- Market priorBlended 66% toward ORST -4 / total 72.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TXST | 14 | 7 | 7 | 14 | 42 |
| ORST | 7 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 21 |
How the points were scored
- TDQ1 8:217–0
Davian Jackson 2 Yd Run (Jacob Bonilla Kick)
- TDQ1 3:1314–0
Torrance Burgess Jr. 1 Yd Run (Jacob Bonilla Kick)
- TDQ1 0:5914–7
AJ Newberry 9 Yd Run (Caleb Ojeda Kick)
- TDQ2 9:2021–7
Davian Jackson 1 Yd Run (Jacob Bonilla Kick)
- TDQ3 3:1328–7
Davian Jackson 3 Yd Run (Jacob Bonilla Kick)
- TDQ4 14:5435–7
Brad Jackson 23 Yd Run (Jacob Bonilla Kick)
- TDQ4 12:2642–7
Zechariah Sample 28 Yd pass from Brad Jackson (Jacob Bonilla Kick)
- TDQ4 8:5242–14
Cornell Hatcher Jr. 1 Yd Run (Caleb Ojeda Kick)
- TDQ4 3:4842–21
Kourdey Glass 2 Yd Run (Caleb Ojeda Kick)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
Passing
| TXST | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | QBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Brad Jackson #8 | 16/20 | 214 | 10.7 | 1 | 1 | 84.8 |
| Team | 16/20 | 214 | 10.7 | 1 | 1 | -- |
Rushing
| TXST | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Torrance Burgess Jr. #4 | 28 | 196 | 7.0 | 1 | 63 |
 Davian Jackson #6 | 19 | 107 | 5.6 | 3 | 40 |
Brad Jackson #8 | 12 | 87 | 7.3 | 1 | 27 |
 Jaylen Jenkins #5 | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | 0 |
Team | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 62 | 386 | 6.2 | 5 | 63 |
Receiving
| TXST | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Zechariah Sample #3 | 3 | 95 | 31.7 | 1 | 47 |
 Chris Dawn Jr. #1 | 7 | 48 | 6.9 | 0 | 13 |
Davian Jackson #6 | 3 | 45 | 15.0 | 0 | 37 |
 Beau Sparks #11 | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 | 15 |
Torrance Burgess Jr. #4 | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 | 8 |
 Blake Smith #16 | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | 3 |
| Team | 16 | 214 | 13.4 | 1 | 47 |
Fumbles
| TXST | FUM | LOST | REC |
|---|---|---|---|
Davian Jackson #6 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Jaylen Jenkins #5 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Defense
| TXST | TOT | SOLO | SACKS | TFL | PD | QB HUR | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Chase Davis #26 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Treylin Payne #29 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jayden Bradley #9 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
 TJ Burkhalter #11 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Craig Royal Jr. #3 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Cole Nilles #10 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Michael Patterson III #19 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 DonTerry Russell #5 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Trez Moore #2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jo'Laison Landry #6 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Tymere Jackson #56 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
 Malik Willis #20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Ryan Nolan #7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Bryce Carter #96 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Dexter Ricks Jr. #24 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Zechariah Sample #3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Terrence Cooks II #16 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Chancellor Owens #90 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 59 | 35 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
Interceptions
| TXST | INT | YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|
Jayden Bradley #9 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Craig Royal Jr. #3 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Kick returns
| TXST | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jaylen Jenkins #5 | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
Kicking
| TXST | FG | PCT | LONG | XP | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jacob Bonilla #38 | 0/1 | 0.0 | 0 | 6/6 | 6 |
| Team | 0/1 | 0.0 | 0 | 6/6 | 6 |
Punting
| TXST | NO | YDS | AVG | TB | In 20 | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tom Flintoff #92 | 2 | 87 | 43.5 | 0 | 0 | 45 |
| Team | 2 | 87 | 43.5 | 0 | 0 | 45 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| TXST | ORST | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Downs | 26 | 22 |
| 3rd down efficiency | 10-15 | 5-12 |
| 4th down efficiency | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Total Yards | 600 | 347 |
| Passing | 214 | 267 |
| Comp/Att | 16/20 | 25/43 |
| Yards per pass | 10.7 | 6.2 |
| Rushing | 386 | 80 |
| Rushing Attempts | 62 | 26 |
| Yards per rush | 6.2 | 3.1 |
| Penalties | 4-40 | 4-30 |
| Turnovers | 2 | 2 |
| Fumbles lost | 1 | 0 |
| Interceptions thrown | 1 | 2 |
| Possession | 35:52 | 24:08 |
At lock TXST 31.32–37.28 ORST · 1.9 pts under 70.5 · 50% is the confidence saved at lock
HitBrad Jackson · TXST
16/20 C/ATT · 214 YDSBraden Atkinson · ORST
20/36 C/ATT · 192 YDSTorrance Burgess Jr. · TXST
28 CAR · 196 YDSAJ Newberry · ORST
9 CAR · 41 YDSZechariah Sample · TXST
3 REC · 95 YDSJesse Legree · ORST
8 REC · 99 YDS
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Texas St vs Oregon St pick result · Nov 7, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 70.5, with a 50% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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