NCAAFFinalCanvas Stadium

#17 Boise State Broncos at Colorado State Rams

Final · USA Net

64–38

Boise StColorado St

Final

#17Boise State Broncos

8-1 · W9

397 PF · 268 PA

Final

Colorado State Rams

3-6 · L3

329 PF · 476 PA

BOIS 85%CSU 15%

At lock: projected BOIS 42.25–25.15 CSU

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 7:14 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1080839487

Winner called · off by 35

Most typical sim

BOIS 42 – CSU 25

Final

BOIS 64 – CSU 38

Winner: Boise St (86%)
Spread: CSU +17.5 covers (51%)
Total: Under 68.5 (53%)
Score error (both teams)35

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: BOIS vs CSU

The model

How this number was built

BOIS 42.25–25.15 CSU · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
CSU -13.0 vs BOIS +11.7 · pred margin -17.4
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -6.0 vs +8.7 · model CSU 25.5–45.2 BOIS
Home field
+3.0 pts to CSU
Record
CSU 3-6 · BOIS 8-1
Market prior
Blended 66% toward BOIS -15.5 / total 69.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
BOIS	22	7	14	21	64
CSU	7	3	14	14	38

How the points were scored

TDQ1 14:088–0
Dylan Riley 73 Yd pass from Max Cutforth (Zeke Martinez Pass to Matt Wagner for Two-Point Conversion)
TDQ1 11:478–7
Oliver Lundberg 9 Yd Run (Kali Nguma Kick)
TDQ1 7:1615–7
Dylan Riley 42 Yd Run (Canaan Moore Kick)
TDQ1 5:1222–7
Matt Wagner 15 Yd pass from Max Cutforth (Canaan Moore Kick)
FGQ2 12:4022–10
Kali Nguma 22 Yd Field Goal
TDQ2 8:4129–10
Rasean Jones 35 Yd pass from Max Cutforth (Canaan Moore Kick)
TDQ3 9:3736–10
Terrious Favors 29 Yd pass from Max Cutforth (Canaan Moore Kick)
TDQ3 8:2236–17
Tommy Maher 13 Yd pass from Hauss Hejny (Kali Nguma Kick)
TDQ3 6:1143–17
Dylan Riley 31 Yd Run (Canaan Moore Kick)
TDQ3 2:3443–24
Hauss Hejny 9 Yd Run (Kali Nguma Kick)
TDQ4 12:5550–24
Max Cutforth 1 Yd Run (Canaan Moore Kick)
TDQ4 11:2450–31
Terrence Smith Jr. 18 Yd pass from Hauss Hejny (Kali Nguma Kick)
TDQ4 7:1157–31
Harry Stewart III 43 Yd Run (Canaan Moore Kick)
TDQ4 2:5664–31
Harry Stewart III 6 Yd Run (Canaan Moore Kick)
TDQ4 1:0164–38
Lavon Brown 7 Yd pass from K'saan Farrar (Kali Nguma Kick)

Player stats

Full box — every player, every category.

Passing

BOIS	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	QBR
Max Cutforth #14	16/19	317	16.7	4	0	95.8
Team	16/19	317	16.7	4	0	--

Rushing

BOIS	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Dylan Riley #0	19	192	10.1	2	42
Harry Stewart III #27	9	89	9.9	2	43
Juelz Goff #22	10	43	4.3	0	10
Mariyon Sloan #30	1	36	36.0	0	36
Max Cutforth #14	2	-4	-2.0	1	1
Team	3	-4	-1.3	0	0
Team	44	352	8.0	5	43

Receiving

BOIS	REC	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Rasean Jones #19	6	116	19.3	1	35
Dylan Riley #0	2	88	44.0	1	73
Terrious Favors #85	2	45	22.5	1	29
Akeem Wright #5	2	39	19.5	0	28
Matt Wagner #88	2	18	9.0	1	15
Ben Ford #82	1	6	6.0	0	6
Juelz Goff #22	1	5	5.0	0	5
Team	16	317	19.8	4	73

Defense

BOIS	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HUR
Roman Tillmon #22	7	5	0	0	0	0
Logan Brantley #17	6	3	0	0	1	1
Kyle Hall #20	5	4	0	0	0	0
Jayden Virgin-Morgan #5	5	3	0	1	0	1
Derek Ganter Jr. #9	5	2	0	0	1	0
Sherrod Smith #8	5	2	0	0	0	0
Madden Soliai #10	4	1	0	0	1	1
Mana Tuioti #55	4	0	0	0	0	1
Jaden Mickey #7	3	3	0	0	0	0
Max Stege #95	3	0	0	0	0	1
Boen Phelps #1	3	0	0	0.5	1	0
JeRico Washington Jr. #6	2	2	0	0	1	0
Travis Anderson #4	2	0	0	0	0	0
Mikaio Edward #97	2	0	0	0.5	0	1
Lopez Sanusi #96	1	1	1	1	0	0
Ty Tanner #53	1	1	0	0	0	0
Roman Caywood #51	1	1	0	0	0	0
Michael Madrie #99	1	0	0	0	0	0
Bol Bol #91	1	0	0	0	0	0
Deuce Alailefaleula #58	1	0	0	0	0	0
Jaden Williams #50	0	0	0	0	0	1
De'Shawn Toilolo #40	0	0	0	0	0	2
Team	62	28	1	3	5	9

Kick returns

BOIS	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG
Terrious Favors #85	2	46	23.0	26
Dylan Riley #0	1	20	20.0	20
Team	3	66	22.0	26

Punt returns

BOIS	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG	TD
Ben Ford #82	1	9	9.0	9	0
Team	1	9	9.0	9	0

Kicking

BOIS	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Canaan Moore #48	0/0	0.0	0	8/8	8
Team	0/0	0.0	0	8/8	8

Punting

BOIS	NO	YDS	AVG	TB	In 20	LONG
Oscar Doyle #37	1	34	34.0	0	1	34
Team	1	34	34.0	0	1	34

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	BOIS	CSU
1st Downs	28	22
3rd down efficiency	5-7	4-13
4th down efficiency	1-1	3-4
Total Yards	669	513
Passing	317	306
Comp/Att	16/19	18/33
Yards per pass	16.7	9.3
Rushing	352	207
Rushing Attempts	44	32
Yards per rush	8.0	6.5
Penalties	4-50	8-70
Turnovers	0	0
Fumbles lost	0	0
Interceptions thrown	0	0
Possession	33:00	27:00

Computer pick · Total

Under 68.5

50%

At lock BOIS 42.25–25.15 CSU · 1.1 pts under 68.5 · 50% is the confidence saved at lock

Miss

Players

Max Cutforth · BOIS
16/19 C/ATT · 317 YDS
Hauss Hejny · CSU
14/25 C/ATT · 253 YDS
Dylan Riley · BOIS
19 CAR · 192 YDS
Rasean Jones · BOIS
6 REC · 116 YDS
Tommy Maher · CSU
6 REC · 99 YDS
Roman Tillmon · BOIS
7 TOT · 5 SOLO

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Boise St vs Colorado St pick result · Nov 7, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 68.5, with a 50% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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