NCAAFSat 5:00 PM CTMartin Stadium

#21 Boise State Broncos at Washington State Cougars

TV · USA Net

Sat 5:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Spread

BOIS -12.5

52%

BOIS 32.31–19.11 WSU

#21Boise State Broncos

5-1 · W5 · computer pick

210 PF · 134 PA

32.31

Projected

Washington State Cougars

1-6 · L4

141 PF · 190 PA

19.11

BOIS 79%WSU 21%

Projected BOIS 32.31–19.11 WSU

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

BOIS -14.7

BOIS -12.5

Total

51.3

51.5

Gap: -2.2 margin, -0.2 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: BOIS vs WSU

The model

How this number was built

BOIS 32.31–19.11 WSU · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
WSU -9.0 vs BOIS +11.4 · pred margin -13.2
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -0.3 vs +7.3 · model WSU 21.1–29.6 BOIS
Home field
+3.0 pts to WSU
Record
WSU 1-6 · BOIS 5-1
Market prior
Blended 68% toward BOIS -12.5 / total 51.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Maddux Madsen
Pass 110/166, 1296 YDS, 13 TD
Dylan Riley
Rush 127 CAR, 835 YDS, 6 TD
Rasean Jones
Rec 23 REC, 359 YDS, 1 TD

Caden Pinnick
Pass 110/178, 952 YDS, 3 TD, 5 INT
Kirby Vorhees
Rush 54 CAR, 267 YDS, 2 TD
Branden Ganashamoorthy
Rec 26 REC, 343 YDS, 3 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	BOIS	WSU
Points Per Game	35.0	20.1
Total Yards	450.5	307.6
Yards Passing	216.0	177.6
Yards Rushing	234.5	130.0
Points Allowed Per Game	22.3	27.1
Yards Allowed	368.2	383.9
Pass Yards Allowed	261.3	224.3
Rush Yards Allowed	106.8	159.6

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Boise St vs Washington St prediction · Oct 24, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is BOIS -12.5, with a 52% model probability. The model projects Boise St 32.3, Washington St 19.1. Model win probability: Washington St 21%, Boise St 79%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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